Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 130959
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
459 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The current forecast is on track with stratus surging northward
and a few warm air advection showers in the east. No major changes
are needed to the forecast at this time.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Tonight through Wednesday night/

Deepening surface low pressure across the Central and Southern
Plains will continue to draw warm and moist air from the Gulf of
Mexico tonight, resulting in a mild and humid night with lows in
the 60s. The moisture surge overnight will stay generally below
850 mb with much drier air above. Stratus will make a quick return
overnight with much of the forecast area starting off the morning
covered in low clouds. A few warm air advection showers will be
possible Wednesday morning, mainly across Central Texas where the
moisture will interact with a passing shortwave. The chance for
measurable rainfall will be less than 20 percent. Low clouds will
gradually lift and scatter through the morning with daytime mixing
and brief large scale subsidence behind the passing shortwave.

Temperatures Wednesday will be the warmest of the week with upper
70s to lower 80s for most. Mid 80s will even be felt across the
far west behind the dryline. Brief subsidence and a strong cap of
warm air aloft should prevent storm initiation on the dryline
Wednesday afternoon, but if a storm were able to develop it would
quickly intensify. For now we will leave some silent 10 PoPs
across the west.

Changes will start to take shape Wednesday night as a deep upper
low drops from the Great Salt Basin towards the Desert Southwest.
Increasing large scale lift will destabilize the mid-levels of
the atmosphere while the surface low lifts into the Central
Plains, dragging the dryline eastward. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the dryline, but very
limited moisture above the cap will hinder storm development. We
will still keep some low (10-20%) chance PoPs, mainly along and
east of the I-35 corridor through Wednesday night to account for
any showers or storms that can scrape together enough moisture to
tap into the favorable mid-level instability.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 309 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024/
Update:

The forecast trends discussed below generally remain on track.
The primary adjustments made during this morning`s update were to
the PoPs on Thursday and Friday. The area where showers and
thunderstorms will be likely (55 percent chance and higher)
Thursday afternoon and through the evening/overnight hours has
been further refined based on the latest guidance to include areas
north/northeast of Waco including the DFW Metroplex.
Additionally, the convection allowing models within range have so
far indicated a low probability for thunderstorm initiation
earlier in the day (before 18Z or 1PM CDT), likely due to the
stout cap that will be in place. Given the very conditional
threat, Thursday morning`s PoPs have been lowered below the NBM
PoP forecast with the better coverage confined to our northernmost
row of counties. Thunderstorm initiation is currently projected
to begin in the afternoon as daytime heating, large-scale ascent
(albeit weak and ill-defined), and available moisture become
sufficient to erode/break the cap.

Forecast soundings in North and Central Texas beyond 18Z indicate
strong instability with MUCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, and 40-50 kt
effective bulk shear. This environment is favorable for supercells
capable of producing large hail. Supercells that remain discrete
may also be associated with a tornado and wind damage threat.
Additionally, with PWAT values climbing to 1.25 - 1.75 inches,
convection may lead to localized heavy rainfall totals with the
potential for isolated flooding concerns to emerge, especially
east of the I-35/35W and north of I-20. The other notable
deviation from previous forecasts is the lethargic passage of the
surface boundary. While previous runs have pushed the cold front
nearly to the coast, the recent suite of guidance indicates that
the front may still be draped over our region by daybreak Friday.
With the slower progression, a secondary peak in convective
coverage now exists on Friday along and ahead of the front,
primarily over Central Texas. Confidence in the potential for
severe weather on Friday remains low as limited diurnal heating
and extensive cloudiness should inhibit available buoyancy.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night Through Early Next Week/

The vernal equinox is still a week away, but meteorological spring
has already begun. Despite still being early in the season, we`re
facing a second consecutive week with the potential for severe
weather. An initial round will be possible late Wednesday with a
more widespread event likely on Thursday. Even after a frontal
passage on Friday, the unsettled weather will persist into the
upcoming weekend.

The upper trough making landfall in the Pacific Northwest will
spend the next couple of days plunging equatorward into the
Intermountain West. Its downstream jet streak will emerge from the
Rockies, initiating lee cyclogenesis that will enhance warm/moist
advection into North and Central Texas. Without adequate forcing
for ascent, capping will likely win out late Wednesday. Any
activity Wednesday afternoon would linger into the evening hours
across Northeast Texas as a low-level jet intensifies. Even if the
radar scope remains quiet, elevated convection could initiate
after dark. While this potential remains low, in either event,
these storms would pose a hail threat.

An early-season dryline will further sharpen on Thursday, the flow
encouraging it to approach our northwestern frontier as early as
Thursday morning. With a moist low-level jet still ongoing at the
time, convective initiation near the advancing boundary or deeper
into the moist air may occur. However, the CAMs that capture this
are unimpressed with the potential for morning activity. Synoptic
guidance is in decent agreement the evolution of the dryline later
in the day, placing the boundary from Texoma into the Hill Country
at peak heating. This would keep the populations centers from
Sherman/Denison and Dallas/Fort Worth to Waco and Temple/Killeen
east of the boundary throughout the daylight hours. A well-
seasoned warm sector with dew point values among the highest on
record for mid-March will yield MLCAPE values in excess of 2500
J/kg. There will still be inhibition to overcome, but near-
boundary convergence appears adequate for afternoon initiation
despite the tendency for the dryline to lose its forward momentum.
Available convective-allowing guidance is disconcertingly gun-shy,
but the current forecast will maintain likely PoPs. Any discrete
storms could pose a threat for all modes of severe weather,
including tornadoes. The threat won`t end with nightfall, and
another round of strong/severe storms may accompany a cold front
late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Our upstream trough will then become well separated from the polar
flow, the resulting cut-off meandering around the Desert Southwest
well into next week. For the first few postfrontal days (Friday
through Sunday), this will promote additional rounds of rain and
(likely non-severe) storms, particularly if the frontal boundary
remains draped across Central and East Texas. Remarkably potent
precipitable water values, even well behind the surface front,
will promote additional rounds of heavy rainfall that could
reaggravate flooding issues. Shortwave ridging early next week
will finally bring an end to the rainy period, but a reinforcing
shot of cool air will maintain below normal temperatures.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Stratus has returned to Waco early this morning and is almost to
the Metroplex TAF sites as of 5 AM. These low clouds will remain
at all terminals for much of the morning. The low level jet has
turned a bit more southwesterly early this morning which should
help the western TAF sites scatter out a bit quicker than the
rest. Overall, ceilings should stay 1000 ft or better, but a
brief drop just below 1000 ft is possible around sunrise,
especially in Waco. By midday, all low clouds will lift and
scatter, leaving daytime Cu along with some passing high clouds.
MVFR ceilings will return overnight/Thursday morning.

A strong cap of warm air aloft will remain in place across the
region through the night, limiting the potential for thunderstorms
but there is still a very low chance for an elevated storm
tonight.

A south wind will prevail through tonight at speeds between 12
and 16 knots along with occasional gusts around 26 knots,
especially from late morning through the afternoon.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  66  80  59  69 /  10  20  70  60  60
Waco                79  66  78  62  70 /  10  20  50  60  80
Paris               77  65  80  58  71 /   5  20  70  80  30
Denton              81  63  79  55  67 /  10  10  60  50  50
McKinney            79  65  78  57  68 /  10  20  80  70  50
Dallas              81  66  80  59  70 /  10  20  80  70  60
Terrell             78  66  78  60  69 /  10  20  70  80  60
Corsicana           81  69  81  64  72 /  10  20  70  70  70
Temple              79  66  79  62  69 /  10  20  50  40  80
Mineral Wells       84  62  82  55  66 /  10  20  50  40  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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