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000
FXUS64 KFWD 240433
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1133 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017


.AVIATION...
No changes are needed for the 06Z TAF package. Low clouds are
beginning to develop across portions of the Hill Country but the
southeasterly flow off of the surface as indicated by the KFWS VAD
wind profile should keep these clouds west of all TAF sites.
Scattered Cu will develop on Sunday morning and should dissipate
with the loss of heating Sunday evening.

South to southeast winds will remain through the TAF period at
speeds generally between 8 and 13 knots.

79

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 352 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/
/Through Tonight/
An inverted trough along the Gulf Coast may generate a few
showers across the eastern counties this afternoon with
precipitation dissipating after sunset. This upper level feature
will also disrupt the stratus return overnight for all but the
southern most counties, leaving areas from the Red River to just
south of the I-20 corridor mostly clear overnight. Warm weather
will continue overnight with low temperatures around 10 degrees
above normal for late September.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 352 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/
/Sunday through Saturday/

We will remain in an area of upper level ridging between a large
upper trough over the western United States and an upper level
low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico for the next 24 to 36
hours. Some isolated showers are possible Sunday afternoon east of
a Bonham to Athens line; otherwise, expect rain- free but warm
and humid conditions. Highs on Sunday will once again be in the
lower to middle 90s.

A shortwave is expected to eject from the upper level trough
Monday and move northeast into the Plains Monday night and
Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to areas
west of I-35/I-35W Monday night and area wide on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a cold front will move down the Plains Monday night and
Tuesday and crossing the Red River into North Texas Tuesday
afternoon. This cold front will move through Central Texas
overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Highs Monday will
remain above seasonal normals with upper 80s to lower 90s
expected. The increased cloud cover and chances of rain across the
west will result in cooler temperatures Tuesday, especially
across the west. Highs will range from the upper 70s northwest to
the lower 90s across the east.

There will be chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide
Tuesday through Thursday night. Rain chances will linger mainly
mainly south of I-20 Friday and Friday night. Highs will be in
mid 70s northwest to the upper 80s southeast Wednesday and in the
70s and 80s Thursday through Saturday. Rainfall totals will be
heaviest across West Texas. Event totals through Friday night
will range from less than 1/2 inch across the eastern zones to
nearly 2 inches across the western zones. Some 3 to over 6 inches
totals are expected across parts of West Texas.

58


58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  93  74  92  73 /   5   0   5  10  10
Waco                71  93  71  91  72 /   5   5   5  10  10
Paris               71  91  69  90  69 /   5  10   5  10  10
Denton              71  92  71  90  70 /   5   0   5  10  10
McKinney            71  91  71  90  70 /   5   5   5  10  10
Dallas              75  93  75  92  74 /   5   5   5  10  10
Terrell             72  92  71  91  70 /   5  10   5  10  10
Corsicana           73  91  71  91  71 /   5   5   5  10  10
Temple              70  90  70  89  71 /   5  10   5  20  10
Mineral Wells       70  92  70  89  69 /   5   0   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/08