Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 290313 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1013 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Confidence in the overnight convection trends is not very high as
coverage is already more than we expected would continue after
sunset. Convectively driven vorticies within the southwest flow
aloft appear to be driving some of the ongoing convection in
combination with weak warm air advection. This will continue into
the overnight hours with isolated to scattered convection expected
mainly west of Interstate 35. Have increased PoPs in this area
overnight and also increased PoPs across our southern counties
between midnight and daybreak. Hi Res guidance continues to
suggest some of these storms will merge into a complex that
affects part of the region late tonight and/or early Sunday
morning. Low level warm advection overnight appears more
favorable west of the region and south of Interstate 20 which
would favor an eastward track into our southern counties. This is
where we will carry the highest PoPs overnight.
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
Thunderstorms have developed in a region of hot and unstable air
roughly west of a KABI-KSAT line. We will need to keep an eye on
RADAR trends this evening as storms approach from the west, but at
this time the feeling is that activity should diminish before
reaching North & Central TX TAF locations. There is some potential
for upscale growth into an MCS over the TX Hill Country, which
might skirt the Waco area to the south tonight, so we will
maintain the VCSH at KACT around 29/06Z.
Otherwise, a return of MVFR cigs is expected at or shortly after
midnight local tonight, with conditions improving late Sunday
morning. A slightly better potential for direct impact from
thunderstorms will exist Sunday evening as a weak upper level
disturbance moves east across the state.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
Abundant low level moisture will remain in place across the entire
region until a cold front arrives around the middle of next week.
The combination of this moisture coupled with energy associated
with several upper level impulses embedded in southwest flow aloft
will result in scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms nearly every day through the middle of next week.
In the short term we expect a few storms to develop over Central
Texas and the Concho Valley late this afternoon/early this evening
where the cap is the weakest and instability is quite high. There
is no good focus for storms, so we expect coverage to be limited.
However, if storms do develop, additional convection is possible
on any outflows. Hail and lightning will be the primary threats,
especially south of Interstate 20 and west of Interstate 35 where
CAPE is in excess of 4000 J/KG.
Sunday morning will be cloudy but rain-free. Rain and thunderstorm
chances will increase Sunday afternoon and evening as a shortwave
approaches from the west. It appears that storms will be most
numerous across the Texas Panhandle Sunday afternoon and evening.
These storms will organize into a complex that will move
east/southeast across the region overnight Sunday through Monday
morning. There is a very good chance that storms could end in
most locations by midday Monday but we will still carry low pops
through Monday night due to timing uncertainties. Storms Sunday
through Monday will have the potential to become strong to severe
as well as to produce locally heavy rainfall.
Thunderstorm chances will increase again on Tuesday/Tuesday night
as a southern branch upper low approaches from the Desert
Southwest. Rain and thunderstorms will be likely Wednesday when a
stronger upper low moves across the Northern Plains and sends a
strong cold front southward through the Central and Southern
Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and behind
the cold front and linger across the area through the end of the
Dry and cool air at the surface and a building ridge aloft will
bring mostly clear and cooler conditions next weekend with lows
in the 50s and lower 60s Friday and Saturday and highs mainly in
the 70s and lower 80s.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 86 69 86 70 / 30 20 40 50 20
Waco 71 86 68 85 69 / 50 30 30 40 20
Paris 68 85 67 84 68 / 10 20 30 40 20
Denton 69 85 67 85 68 / 30 20 50 50 20
McKinney 69 85 67 84 69 / 20 20 40 50 20
Dallas 72 87 70 86 71 / 30 20 40 50 20
Terrell 70 86 68 86 69 / 20 20 30 40 20
Corsicana 71 86 69 85 69 / 40 30 30 40 20
Temple 71 85 69 83 69 / 50 30 30 40 20
Mineral Wells 69 85 66 84 68 / 40 30 50 50 20