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000
FXUS64 KFWD 280241 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
941 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The sprinkles have departed from the forecast area. Some mid to
high level clouds will continue to move across parts of North and
Central Texas through the early morning hours. Updates have
already been sent.

58

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

With the parting of the mid-level clouds this afternoon, expect to
see high clouds moving across the night sky with light
west/northwest winds at all TAF sites in North and Central Texas.
Skies will clear up tomorrow morning and expect winds to pick up
to around 7 kts.

A cold front will approach all DFW metroplex TAF sites by 03Z
Thursday. The main impacts will a shift in wind direction, as
well as an increase in wind speeds to around 11 knots. Not much
moisture is associated with this frontal passage, keeping our
skies clear for the rest of this TAF cycle.

Hernandez


&&

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 755 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/
Some sprinkles continue to fall from mid level clouds across the
area from southeast of Waxahachie to Nacodogches this evening.
This activity will continue to move southeast at 15 to 20 mph.
Otherwise...expect mid and high level clouds to continue to move
southeast across North and Central Texas this evening with skies
gradually clearing from the north overnight.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/
Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates an interesting
weather pattern with multitude of weather systems affecting North
America and the CONUS. The system which will have the highest
impact on our region is likely the upper low over the Great Lakes
region. Flow around the western flank of the upper level low has
forced a cold front southward all the way to the upper TX Coastal
area. Behind this front, cooler and drier has settled in across
the region.

For today, we saw more in the way of mid and high clouds than
previously expected due to the presence of both an upper low over
northwest Mexico and Tropical Storm Roslyn in the Eastern
Pacific. A steady stream of mid and high clouds has been flowing
overhead in the westerlies aloft since yesterday. However, the
upper low is forecast to lift northwestward and weaken tonight and
Wednesday. The tropical system will likewise weaken while moving
slowly away from land tomorrow and Thursday, bring an end to our
mid and high clouds sometime during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The Great Lakes low will sink south while deepening over Ohio
tomorrow and Thursday,and then meander around in the same region
through the weekend. The initial southward drop will help send a
reinforcing cold front southward through North and Central Texas
Wednesday night. So, after a brief warm-up Wednesday, we should
cool back down to lows in the 50s and low 60s and highs in the 70s
and 80s for the second half of the week. Moisture will be very
limited and no precipitation is expected with the front at this
time. Our next chance of rain will occur during the middle and
latter part of next week with our next cold front and upper level
storm system.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  87  60  78  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                58  86  59  80  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               56  88  57  77  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              54  86  57  76  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            54  86  58  77  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              60  87  61  79  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             56  86  59  78  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           59  85  60  79  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              59  86  59  80  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       53  86  57  76  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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