Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 300435
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1135 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Two areas of convection associated with short wave energy will
remain well northwest and northeast of the Metroplex TAF sites
through the night. North and Central Texas will remain mostly
clear to partly cloudy overnight through Saturday evening with
only scattered high clouds and a few daytime cu. A south wind will
prevail in the 7 to 13 knot range.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
A vigorous shortwave aloft continues to move east-southeast across
eastern OK and into AR and the Lower Mississippi Valley this
evening. Meanwhile, the old outflow boundary today sits just south
of I-20 and will continue to wash out through the overnight hours.
What we are monitoring closely is a more well-defined surface
outflow boundary sinking south toward the immediate Red River
Valley. Regional radar shows a cluster of non-severe, but strong
thunderstorms moving into the Ark-La-Tex and back building
westward a bit to being a county or two north of a Bonham-Paris
line.

Will have 20-30% POPs confined to areas along the Red River
Valley or to be more specific, generally along and northeast of a
Bowie-Greenville-Emory line. For the overnight, enough residual
latent heat release combined with very subtle forcing could spur a
brief shower or two elsewhere, but nothing of significance.

Otherwise, another shortwave disturbance aloft and associated
storm cluster over the TX Panhandle should remain up in OK, though
will leave 20 percent POP overnight up near the Red River since
short-range, high-resolution models such as the HRRR, TTU WRF,etc
haven`t exactly been handling these convective subtleties very well
the past week.

Temperatures will be slow to cool through the 80s the remainder of
the evening, as winds remain generally from the south at 10 mph or
less.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/
An outflow boundary extended from near McKinney to just north of
Granbury to Cisco at 3 pm. The western part of the boundary,
mainly west of I-35W, has been a focus for thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Elsewhere, scattered showers and
thunderstorms were occurring southeast of a Comanche to Hillsboro
to Athens line. Expect some of this activity to continue into the
evening hours. Little or no activity is expected this evening
north of the I-20 corridor. Another thunderstorm complex is
expected to develop across Kansas and Oklahoma tonight, and some
of this activity may brush the Red River counties late tonight
into Saturday. Even if the complex itself does not manage to make
it into the forecast area, an outflow boundary may serve a focus
for new development Saturday. Thus have kept 20 to 30 percent POPS
for the 06-12z period along and north of a Bowie to McKinney to
Emory line. Have also kept 20 to 30 percent POPs Saturday along
and northeast of Gainesville to Canton line.

For much of the work week, we have been sandwiched between two
upper level ridges - one just to the west of the Four Corners area
and another to the east over the southeastern United States. An
upper level ridge will build over region Sunday through the middle
part of next week. This will result in rain-free weather with high
temperatures in the upper 90s to 103 degrees across much of the
area.

The ECMWF and to a lesser degree the GFS, indicate that an upper
low will move northwestward from the Yucatan peninsula into Deep
South Texas and northern Mexico by next weekend. This system may
bring some low rain chances across parts of Central Texas next
weekend.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  98  79  99  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
Waco                76  98  77 100  77 /  10   5   5   5   5
Paris               75  95  76  97  76 /  30  30  10  10   5
Denton              76  97  76  98  77 /  10  10   5   5   5
McKinney            76  96  76  98  77 /  10  20   5   5   5
Dallas              79  98  79  99  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
Terrell             76  97  77  98  77 /  10  20   5   5   5
Corsicana           77  97  77  97  77 /  10  10   5  10   5
Temple              75  97  75  98  75 /  10   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       73  98  75  98  75 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

79/05


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