Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 051650 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
RETURNING FRIDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.

JLDUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY...MUCH OF THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES. WE WILL STILL KEEP
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE (20% - 30%) SUNDAY SINCE THE DRYLINE WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A CAP WILL BE PRESENT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND LIFT BOTH INCREASE. HOWEVER...STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRYLINE. THE GFS MAY BE A BIT FAST
WITH THE DRYLINE BASED ON THE LAST SEVERAL DRYLINE EVENTS SO WILL
SIDE A BIT CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. STORMS SHOULD BE
MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF I-35 MONDAY MORNING AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
35 MONDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY...LIFT...MOISTURE AND SHEAR
SHOULD ALL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A FULL
SUITE OF HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...INCLUDING ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. WE WILL STILL KEEP
SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TIMING
ISSUES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DRYLINE.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ONLY TEMPORARILY SCOUR OUT BEHIND MONDAY`S DRYLINE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    81  58  84  62  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO                82  53  84  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS               77  52  80  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON              79  53  83  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY            79  53  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS              82  59  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL             80  54  82  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA           80  55  83  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE              82  55  84  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       83  55  84  59  84 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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