Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 062056
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED.

THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS...IS APPROACHING.
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN THIS EVENING (PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS HERE). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...AND SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR AREAS
THAT APPEAR DARKER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY (GIVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER SYSTEMS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA...AND WITH LOW LEVEL SW/W FLOW EXPECTED
ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS NEAR OR INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY...AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK
(LANGDON AREA...BAUDETTE AREA). CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FORMATION...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTED PATTERN STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FLATTENING WEST/NW FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF STILL LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS. UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH THE FA KEEPING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS THERE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

STILL DEALING WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY VFR. BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
WITH LIGHT SNOW/LOWER CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT KEPT THINGS VFR AS NOT A
LOT OF LOWER CONDITIONS FOUND UPSTREAM. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. THEN TOWARD SAT MORNING THE
WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GODON




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