Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 301440
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
940 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Made a few minor tweaks to clouds for the cirrus starting to move
into the south, but no other changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Area of thicker high level clouds exiting northeastern North
Dakota early this morning, while additional high level cloud cover
spreading north into WC/NW MN. For today high clouds will be over
the southeast 1/3 of the fcst area while northwestern areas to be
quite sunny. Seeing that each day mat T are above the blended
guidance, went once again on the warm side of things, esp in the
sunnier NW 1/2 of the fcst area.

Clouds to thicken up later today as moisture moves north thru
western/southern MN and eastern SD. Consensus of all models is to
delay precip arriving into our far southeastern fcst area til 03z-
06z period. So delayed spread of pops northward from prev fcst.
00z models in fair agreement in being just a tad farther south and
east with NW edge of precipitation...nr a Wahpeton ND to Mahnomen
to Waskish MN line. low level temps show about a 6-12 hr period
of enough cooling for snow...and sfc temps expected to be 32-33
during the snow. Question is intensity of the snow as considerable
moisture may get blocked from moving north around the upper low
due to storms in the mid/lower Mississippi valley. Max lift region
briefly moves into wadena area then skirts east-northeast more
toward Duluth later tonight/early Monday. Thus appears a shorter
window for enough lift and moisture to produce snow accumulation.
Consensus is for 2-4 inch snow potential Elbow Lake up across E
Otter Tail county, Wadena county and into southern and eastern
Hubbard county. Also 00z GEFS plumes have really lowered and
tightened around the 3-4 inch idea for Park Rapids vs yesterday
which saw higher spread. Thus overall feel chc of winter storm
conditions are very very low and went advisory this fcst package.
If felt was enough chc of 6 or more inches than would have kept
the watch.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Monday AM snow in southeastern fcst area will turn back to rain
midday and aftn/eve as system departs. For this event had advisory
from midnight to noon CDT as this is the best window for snow.

For the rest of the fcst area mainly Roseau to Crookston to Fargo
and west dry weather is anticipated thru Monday.

Short wave trough will bring a chc of a few rain showers Tuesday
west of the RRV.

Still looking at northwest flow at 500mb on Wed into Wed night
with a weak short wave passage. Surface pattern also shows a weak
low or trough passage, which generates a little light rain over
the FA. Because of this, Wed looks like the coolest day of the
longer term. Ridging builds in for the remainder of the Thu to Sat
time frame, bringing dry weather and a warming trend. Thu highs
should be near normal with Fri/Sat above normal. Blended guidance
temps for Fri/Sat shows highs around 70 for most places, but some
members are showing mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 718 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

VFR thru the pd. Any cloud cover of the high variety thru the
evening. Far southeastern forecast area, east of Fargo and south
of Bemidji will see increasing mid level cloud cover and then MVFR
or IFR cigs late tonight.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CDT Monday
     for MNZ024-031-032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Godon/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle



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