Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 012014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT HAPPENS
TOMORROW. CURRENTLY HAVE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. THERE IS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME UPPER JET ENERGY
FEEDING INTO IT. NO REAL SFC BOUNDARY BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KEEP
SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER GOING BETWEEN ESTEVAN AND BRANDON IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THESE ARE MOVING DUE EAST AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT
THE FA. THERE IS A WEAK SFC LOW OUT OVER EASTERN MT WHERE TEMPS
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S. ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE...GIVES SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG. VERY LITTLE SHEAR ATTM THO. DESPITE THIS EXPECT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THIS MAY DRIFT INTO THE WEST/NW FA BY MID TO LATE EVENING
AND POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SETTING THE STAGE...THIS
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL LEAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DO NOT BREAK IT OUT
ANYWHERE TUE AND HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DROP IN GUIDANCE HIGHS AS A
RESULT. FROM 12Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...MODELS SHOW THE MAIN SFC LOW
OVER NORTHWEST SD MOVING TO MOBRIDGE SD...NOT A FAST MOVER BY ANY
MEANS. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW UP INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. MODELS KEEP DECENT
850MB FLOW OVER EASTERN SD UP INTO NW MN IMPINGING ON THIS
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A BAND OF HEAVIER
PCPN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE UPPER JET HOLDS BACK CLOSER TO
THE SFC LOW. EXPECT BETTER HEATING AND CAPE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SFC LOW BY MID TO LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THINK TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR BACK NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND IF IT EXPANDS INTO THIS FA WILL
BE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THESE INITIAL TSTMS
SPREAD EAST-NE. SPC HAS REMOVED THE ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL
POSSIBLY DUE TO NOT ALL THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER JUST
RIGHT. EITHER WAY THE SLIGHT RISK AREA REMAINS WEST OF A LINE FROM
KBWP-KFAR-KGFK-KDVL. THINK ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DONE BY
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EAST ON WED. THEN A
RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE IN FOR THU. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MN AND WI. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH...BUT
MOST HAVE THE SYSTEM MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE BLENDED
SOLUTION GIVES TOM LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT A
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN SOME LOWER ONES FOR MONDAY AS THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS
WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE 850MB TEMPS STAY IN THE LOW TEENS C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREEZY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS CLOUDS SHOULD STAY IN THE 6000 FT AND UP
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES
BEFORE SETTLING DOWN IN THE LATE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT A FEW OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
BRING IN SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. THINK THAT LOWER
CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY SO JUST INCLUDED
SOME HIGHER MVFR AT KDVL FOR NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO START MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS MORNING...WITH SOME THUNDER NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THINK THE BETTER THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD SO JUST INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT THE WESTERN THREE
TAF SITES FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...JR


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