Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221501
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Upper level low pressure system was located over the ND/MAN border.
surface low was located west of Carrington ND with a warm front
extending into southeast MN. Adjusted sky, wind, and POPs to match
current conditions. No other changes at this update.

UPDATE Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Showers begin to develop around and north of Devils Lake this
morning, as expected, as surface trough shifts east. One cell in
western Cavalier county drifting east...with more isolated storms
possible mainly north of Hwy 2. Expect some development north of
Valley City by mid morning. Storms have exited southeastern zones
and have removed POPs there for the morning. No other significant
changes made to ongoing forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Forecast challenge for the short term forecast will be showers and
storms today and this evening. First band of storms, now mainly
showers, is beginning to clear western zones as showers move into
west central Minnesota mainly south of Highway 2. Will adjust
upward POPs across this region. Inverted trough from main low over
N Central NE extending back into second area of low pressure over
Srn SASK. Main precip for today will be associated with this
northern low.

Today. Low pressure will move into northeastern ND by noon time
with instability weakening across the north and some instability
south of Hwy 2. Both NAM and HRRR are much drier across the
southern half of the CWA as SFC trough moves into eastern ND,
whereas GFS showing precip from Langdon down through Lisbon,
mainly in the 12Z to 15Z timeframe. Given dry airmass over valley
and MN, prefer the drier solutions and will keep POPs mainly in
the northern half of FA behind this initial wave of showers.
Blended QPF amounts also have best QPF axis across the north until
the afternoon when some convection is possible across w central MN
as heating along the frontal boundary increases in the afternoon.
Mostly showers expected north of Hwy 2.

Tonight...High pressure slides into ND by 06Z and should see any
lingering activity dissipate during the evening hours as winds
turn northeast than northerly by midnight. Overnight lows will be
in the lower 50s and possibly upper 40s in the far northeast as
the drier air sinks in from Ontario.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Thursday will be dry as surface high moves into valley mid day.
Western zones will see return flow set up in the afternoon, which
will keep Thu night lows 5 to 6 deg warmer across the west than
across northern MN. An upper ridge will also amplify Thu night
into Friday, moving east of the region Fri aftn. A strong upper
wave moves into central MT by late Fri afternoon as a SFC low
ejects out into eastern ND. Models continue to indicate some
development ahead if SFC boundary late Fri afternoon, increasing
in coverage east of the valley Fri night as upper pattern turns
more southwesterly and a 35 to 40 knot LLJ axis shifts into MN.
SPC has a slight risk threat mainly north of Highway 2 as
instability increases Friday night.

Saturday-Tuesday...Deep upper low will cross the region this
weekend with the surface cold front sweeping through on Saturday.
The 00z GFS/ECMWF would favor eastern portions of the area or points
eastward for strong/severe storms Saturday afternoon given frontal
timing, but there are still some model differences in the placement
of the upper wave/sfc low. Some showers may persist into Sunday
depending on the position of the upper wave, with cooler and breezy
conditions following the cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

VFR conds with some scattered showers/isolates storms along and
north of Highway 2 today...generally east of Devils Lake. Activity
should clear out in BJI late in the evening with dry weather after
midnight.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoppes
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Makowski/Speicher
AVIATION...Speicher



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