Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291457
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOWERED CLOUD AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ONLY SOME THIN
CIRRUS OVER THE FA. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REX LIKE PATTERN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW MON DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION AND NOT PREFERRED. WILL USE
A MODEL BLEND.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NE BY SAT.
RAIN EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH IN SD ON SAT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REPLACE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SAT.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH SAT. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED
DRYING/DARKENING OVER SOUTHERN MAN. DRYING SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THE SOUTHERN VALLEY FRI NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND HALF AN INCH AND WILL FALL TO AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON SUN WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT.

FOG LOOP AND SFC OBS INDICATED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. A CLEAR
SKY SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LOOKING AT A DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURE OVERALL RUNNING CLOSE TO
THE LONG TERM NORMALS.  AREA WILL START OFF NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN AN AREA OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.  WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DROP
SOUTH AROUND THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH WITH A COOL FRONT COMING THROUGH.
AIRMASS IS QUIET DRY SO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT.  THIS
DRIER PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST WELL BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FOG LOOP INDICATED CIRRUS CLOUDS MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND
FROM THE NORTH. FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS ALSO INDICATED CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF ONTARIO EXCEPT FAR WESTERN ONTARIO WHICH WAS CLEAR. VFR CIGS
AROUND 42 HUNDRED FT OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND WERE MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MODELS SUGGEST VFR CIGS OVER ONTARIO
WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES


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