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000
FXUS63 KFGF 150219
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
919 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

SUNSET HAS ALLOWED MIXING TO DIMINISH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. ALL SITES HAVE GONE BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND IN THE NORTHWEST THEY ARE DOWN BELOW 12
KTS. HAVE ALLOWED HEADLINES TO EXPIRE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO SEEM ON
TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE CLOUDS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. BJI AND PKD HAVE SPIKED UP ABOVE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BRIEFLY BUT ARE BACK DOWN AND WINDS SHOULD START
TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL LEAVE THE WIND
HEADLINES AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

UPGRADING TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TOWNER TO PEMBINA COUNTIES AS
GUSTS TO 51 KTS HAVE OCCURRED AT ROLLA AND CAVALIER. THIS
AFTERNOON EFFICIENT MIXING OF 35 TO 50 KTS FROM 800 TO 700MB IS
OCCURRING BEHIND THE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALSO AIDED BY STRONG
CAA. AHEAD OF THE FROPA TEMPS HAVE REACHED UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.

LIGHT SFC WINDS BY MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED ACROSS THE CWFA. MORNING INVERSION TO BURN OFF WITH
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON THOUGH ONLY
15 KTS OR SO TO MIX SO THE AREA GETS A BREAK FROM THE HEADLINE
WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SW AT 500MB BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SE SFC WINDS...MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE
CWFA AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. SCHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWFA EXPANDS TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON NEGATIVE
SHOWALTERS WORK INTO SW CWFA AS SFC DEW POINTS REACH IN TO THE UPPER
50S ML CAPE VALUES OF 200 TO 400J/KG DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK INVERTED
SFC TROUGH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN
IS SHAPING UP. A SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR FRI NIGHT AND THEN
PERSISTS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CAN/T RULE OUT SEVERE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH WITH MU CAPES PROGGED
OVER 2000 J/KG AND SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S. MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO AS WELL...LEADING TO
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL START
TO DECREASE AROUND 02Z OR SO AFTER SUNSET...AND CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG
AS TODAY...MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF ERN ND INTO NW/WCNTRL MN
(EXCEPT LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTH BELTRAMI REGIONS) THROUGH 02Z
WED (9PM THIS EVENING). FUELS REMAIN DRY AND PRIME OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE DROPPED TO THE LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT MINNESOTA. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
PICKED UP AS WELL...WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 KTS OVER THE NW CWA.
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS WILL MOVE TO THE VALLEY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET CONCURRENT WITH HUMIDITY
RECOVERY. FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA SHOULD NOT BE REACHED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY MINIMA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...WJB