Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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200
FXUS63 KFGF 201814
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
114 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

With the increasing cumulus this morning, the previous forecast
had bumped up cloud amounts somewhat. This still seems to be
working out, as the cumulus formation seems to have leveled out.
Temperatures are still on the cool side, but should still reach
the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Showers associated with well defined mid level circulation
confined to the far south and east. Will maintain some low pops
this area until 12z then dry as high pressure builds into the
region. Will see a mix of clouds and sun today with current cloud
cover and afternoon cu development with convective temperatures
generally around 70. Thermal advection pretty neutral so
temperatures should be pretty similar to yesterday.

Warm advection kicks in overnight and based on strength of warm
advection could see some showers developing later tonight.
Will mention Thunder in forecast but convective parameters look
limited.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Strong wave propagates across southern Canada Wednesday with the
northern fa on south edge of best support as upper level jet
maxima rides along international border. Associated cold front
reaches the western fa mid/late afternoon. Sufficient shear and
northward extent of strong to severe storm potential ahead of
boundary will be determined by cloud cover which would limit
instability. Will stay consistent with SPC guidance for now.

Thursday looks dry and breezy with main energy to the north of the
fa. Highs should be closest to average in the valley with low
level westerly flow and a bit cooler west and east.

Long wave trough rotates through Hudson Bay and the western Great
Lakes on Sat. Split flow remains across North America with the
southern stream over the northern states and the northern stream
over central Canada. Northern stream becomes more dominate through
the period. Low amplitude long wave ridge axis off the Pacific
Northwest coast shifts to the US Rockies.

The ECMWF and the GFS were similar through the period with the ECMWF
a little higher amplitude solution. However the northern stream
becomes out of phase after Sun. Both the ECMWF and the GFS were
trending slower over the last couple model runs.

High temperatures were decreased one or two degrees for Fri,
decreased a degree for Sat and Sun, and no change for Mon from
yesterdays package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Quite a bit of cumulus formed by mid morning, but it appears to
have stabilized now. Most TAFs should stay on the SCT side, but
may at times become BKN. Either way, these ceilings have risen
into the VFR range and will stay that way through the rest of the
afternoon. With the sfc high moving in wind speeds have stayed on
the lighter side. Expect the cumulus to fade away by sunset, but
some mid or high level clouds may hang around through the night.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JH/Voelker
AVIATION...Godon



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