Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 182333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ADJUSTED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS POINT.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS SHRINKING...HIGH CIRRUS
WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO STEADY TEMPERATURES...SO CURRENT VALUES WILL BE
RATHER CLOSE TO MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BROAD RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH A CONTINUED SLOW EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PUSH INTO THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MIX OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TRANSIT THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES
IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

SUNDAY...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE FORENOON. CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AS LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO BORDER. WEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO PLEASANTLY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. WESTERN ON LATER THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT AND A MILD SUNDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE OFFING. TEMPS
SHOULD SHOW SOME COOLING DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AND COOL
CANADIAN POLAR AIR...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL
NORMALS. AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH AN RESULTING INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR
ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES TO RATCHET WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OR
ZONAL FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THE OUTSET WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH WELL WEST COMING
ONSHORE OF THE PAC NW. IN BETWEEN A LEE SIDE SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE
SHAPE AND HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS...OFFERING THE ONLY PCPN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. THE FINAL TWO
DAYS WILL SEE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOME ESTABLISHED...WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT. THERMALLY...THIS REGIME WILL INDICATE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FOUR DAY STRETCH WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE SIXTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIG COVERAGE IS SHRINKING...AND NOW CONFINED TO
KFAR...KGFK...AND KTVF. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO
THESE LOWER CIGS SCATTERING OR ADVECTING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF NOT SOONER. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...WJB/GUST
AVIATION...TG




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