Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
348 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a trough from eastern WY into eastern CO
and was moving to the northeast about 40 knots. Some
drying/darkening was noted over eastern WY/eastern CO. Short wave
ridging east of trough was returning moisture northward. Band of
precipitable water over an inch and a quarter forecast to rotate
northward through the forecast area through 00z Thu.

Coupled upper level jet was over the area with jet over southern
Canada and a southwesterly jet nosing into southeast ND by 18z Wed.
Coupled area shifts into Ontario this evening with respectable upper
level divergence. Precip basically falls under the 700 hpa theta-e
ridge. Water column then dries out tonight and Thu. Precipitable
water increases again for Fri/Fri night as upper low off the
southern CA coast moves out into the plains of NE. Concurrently an
upper trough over western MT will move into northern ND/southern MAN
Fri/Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Saturday through Tuesday...The wet pattern will continue with
several troughs moving through the Northern Plains. The first will
lift from the Central Plains into Minnesota on Saturday, and another
large trough coming in from the Rockies on Tuesday. In between, west
to southwesterly flow will prevail over the Northern Plains and any
of the weak embedded shortwaves could bring some precip. Blended
solution gives fairly high POPs throughout the period, with some
slight decrease down to 15ish percent Sunday night and Monday at the
driest. Given the pattern see little reason to change that wet
solution at this point. Temperatures will continue to be mostly
above seasonal averages.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Rain showers and thunderstorms should lift out of S Dakota and
into southeastern N Dakota during the mid morning hours Wednesday.
Activity will continue through most of the day, however outside of
TSRA on state conditions expected to be VFR until after 00Z
Thursday. Strongest storms will be in the afternoon hours and
across the southern valley.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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