Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271811
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
111 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM  CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED TO COORDINATE WITH WFO BIS ON SLOWING TIMING OF MAIN
TSTM ACTION TONIGHT SO ADJUSTED POPS SOME MORE WITH MOSTLY NOT
TIL 05-06Z IN DVL REGION SPREADING EAST. UNSURE OF SEVERE THREAT
AT THAT TIME...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE AS
EXPECT A SQUALL LINE EVENT. DID KEEP ISOLD -SHRA IN A SMALL AREA
NEAR A MID LEVEL VORT MOVING FROM NEAR FARGO INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA
THIS AFTN. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE
850 MB FOR A LITTLE ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM BREAKING THE
CAP A BIT TOO SOON THIS AFTERNOON...SO PREFER THE GFS.

FOR TODAY...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD OF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM DOES BREAK THE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DVL BASIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A 50KT LLJ INCREASES INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER DARK...AND EXPECT A POTENTIAL
BOW ECHO OR SEVERAL SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AROUND 00Z...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS ARE
PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR
NEAR ANY STORM.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THIS STRONG MID SUMMER
SYSTEM...AND COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS IS VERY
STRONG WITH WINDS...SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN.

FOR WED...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ABOUT 30-40KT TO MIX
FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...IT COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS ZONAL WITH A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
/NORTHERN PLAINS. PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS WERE TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY A DEGREE LOWER
FOR FRI AND SUN AND LESS SO FOR THU AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOWER BASED CUMULUS FIELD FORMED DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST FA WHERE
THERE WAS SOME FOG THIS MORNING. IT QUICKLY EXPANDED UP THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINKING IT SHOULD DIMINISH THRU
THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN. FAIRLY STEADY WINDS
SHOULD HOLD UP THRU THE NIGHT AND THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD PICK AGAIN
BY MID TUE MORNING. PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF TSTMS TO 09Z AT KDVL
AND 11Z INTO KGFK/KFAR. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON LATER TIMING THAN
PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM
IN THERE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...GODON



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