Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
938 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Issued at 938 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Adjusted cloud cover for current satellite trends as some stratus
has been lingering over the central CWA a bit longer than
expected. Still thinking we should see some sunshine later today
as the surface low over ONT pulls further off to the east.
Temperatures still seem on track to top out in the upper 50s to
low 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough was located
from southern ALTA/SASK border to ND. Trough was rotating to a
negative tilt into southern Canada with better than 130M height
falls to the north. ALTA/SASK portion of the trough will move
east across southern MAN this afternoon.
Water vapor loop indicated another short wave over western NV.
Short wave will move across the Red River Valley Sun night/Mon
morning. Short wave expected to produce only clouds maybe some
sprinkles. Increased wind for late Sun night into Mon with
short wave.

Next upper level trough off the west Canadian coast will approach
the forecast area Tue night. Also increased winds for Tue and Tue

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Rainfall associated with a passing cold front will exit to the east
before midday Wednesday yielding a dry and breezy rest of the day
with highs largely remaining in the 60s. Dry conditions are short
lived as rain chances increase Thursday morning in northeastern
North Dakota. Thursday afternoon into Friday, rain chances increase
further across the region as a low pressure system moves through the
area. Friday holds the best chance for rain. A cold front is
expected to sweep through the area Saturday shifting widespread rain
chances towards the south and east into Minnesota and South Dakota.
There is some question of how far this front will push south and
east thus determining rainfall chances Saturday into Sunday for
areas in Minnesota south of around US 2 as well as in southeastern
North Dakota, mainly south of I-94. While confidence remains on the
lower side, there does appear to be some chance of areas seeing
heavy rainfall Friday.

Temperatures look to be moderate through the beginning of the
forecast period until around late Friday through the weekend where
cooler temperatures are expected due to elevated rain chances,
associated clouds, and a wind direction largely out of the north and
west. Breezy conditions are also expected Wednesday through Friday,
especially in the afternoons.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Satellite indicated a mostly cloudy sky across the area. However
many holes were in the cloud deck. Cigs were general between 15
and 25 hundred ft. Expect cigs to slowly rise this morning and
dissipate in the ND side of the Red River. Expect MVFR cigs to
remain longer over northwest MN through noon or early afternoon
before dissipating or moving out.




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