Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271218

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
718 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Issued at 718 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Updated PoP/Wx forecast based on latest trends. Area of showers
and a few thunderstorms has expanded this morning. The
thunderstorms are basically in the central Red River Valley on the
ND side...but moving NE. Still believe there will be redevelopment
of stronger storms by noon or so in SE ND.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

An upper level trough is approaching from the west this morning
with a surface low centered over west-central Manitoba.
Instability is steadily increasing today as the cooler temps aloft
and warm moist air near the surface both move into the area.
Showers are currently underway in SE ND where some weak low level
frontogenesis exists. Models point toward increasing coverage
through the morning hours as the upper wave approaches. The
strongest storms will likely develop in the early afternoon
hours in eastern ND...and continue into the early evening in
north-central MN. The convective allowing models favor
southeastern ND and adjacent areas in MN. Both CAPE and shear are
best in this area...where 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE and 30-40 kts of
deep shear will exist according to the NAM. SREF median and GFS
both point toward closer to 1000 to maybe 1500 J/kg across parts
of MN and SE ND. Nonetheless...upper support is very strong with
this system and expect some activity...but severity remains in
question. SPC has Marginal risk in place currently. Activity is
expected to diminish quickly as wave passes the BDE/BJI/PKD line
in the eastern forecast area early this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Sunday...Instability increases significantly for Sunday as low
level flow pumps warm moist air northward into the area ahead of
the next system. An upper wave and surface low will pass to the
north in Canada...with a warm front expected to be draped E-W
across SE ND and WC MN by afternoon. Higher CAPEs of nearing 5000
J/kg (NAM) or 3000 (GFS)...and deep shear of 30 kts make the
possibility for severe storms possible given convection.
However...models are finding a hard time breaking the cap with
limited forcing. GFS is the most bullish on this event...firing
TSs in SE ND near front. Marginal risk in place for Sunday from
basically US Highway 2 and south. WRF NMM (4KM) is quiet and the
NCAR ensembles have 3 of 10 members with a cell or two in the
central RRV by 22Z. There is a chance for northern forecast area
activity as well as the influence of the upper wave to the north
brushes the Canadian border. Shear is reasonable in this
area...but high instability in question. Also...the increased
moisture and highs in the 80s will make Sunday feel rather warm
under sunny skies.

Monday...a cold front will push through most of the area late in
the night Sunday night or Monday morning...except perhaps the far
SE. Some thunderstorm activity will be possible mainly early on
Monday. Highs will be a bit cooler...mainly in the upper 70s north
to low 80s south.

Tuesday - Friday...Upper level troughs will still blanket the
east and west coasts during the midweek period with upper ridge
stretching from the central plains northwest into the Canadian
Rockies. The ridge will be reflected at the surface by warming
temperatures to a bit above seasonal averages portending the
chance for a couple of convective intervals. The threat for more
widespread RW/TRW coverage appear to be later in the week as a
more pronounced southwest flow develops with a couple of embedded
shortwaves. The gridded forecast offers continuity with previous
forecasts, still featuring highest POPs on Friday/Day 7.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 718 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Areas of showers and thunderstorms the main concern today. Believe
CIGS will remain VFR...although it is possible to go lower in a
heavy TS. Expect area of redevelopment to the southwest of area
drifting east. Also...models hinting at low level saturation late
tonight...with some fog in the BJI MOS guidance at 12Z. Have
included 5 mi BR to start trending downward. Will need to be
updated for lower vis if models continue with current trends.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Knutsvig/WJB
AVIATION...Knutsvig is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.