Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240837
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
337 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Challenge for today will be SFC low and inverted trough
positioning with the question being where the all snow line
maintains itself in the Devils Lake basin. Will be issuing a
winter weather advisory for the threat of some icy glaze
conditions and accumulating snow across the Devils Lake basin and
into the western portions of Walsh and Pembina Counties.

Satellite imagery this morning is showing the short wave
approaching the high plains with western high plains radars
beginning to some the developing precipitation expected to reach
the western FA by 12Z. This first round of precip may fall as a
mix with SFC temps around 30 in the Devils Lake basin. As the
precipitation lifts north an intensifies accumulating snow is
expected to develop with 3 to 5 inches possible across the
northern portions of Devils Lake basin, with the highest amounts
expected for Towner and Cavalier counties. Higher amounts are
possible in this area and will need to be monitored for updates.

Elsewhere in the warm sector ahead of the inverted trough and SFC
low winds will become southerly with temps lifting into the 60s in
the WCNTRL MN. As the inverted trough swings through the area
this afternoon and evening showers will develop with rain totals
ranging across the southern half of the FA from trace amounts up
to a quarter of an inch with northern valley and NW MN areas
seeing a quarter to three quarters of an inch total.

Precipitation lifts to the northeast this evening into the
overnight. With northerly winds and cloud cover, a cool Tuesday
is setting up as temps struggle to rise with 30s and low 40s.
Next chance of precipitation moves into the south Tuesday night
with some light snow accumulations possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The next 500 mb short wave will move into central/southern Minnesota
Wednesday, spreading precipitation into SE ND and thru most of NW/WC
MN.  Ptype would indicate a chance for some -sn late Wed & Wed eve
especially for areas east of the Red River valley.  This system
departs, though it is noted the 00z Canadian global model wraps up
the low and its it north into NW Ontario and keeps precip in NW MN
into Thursday.  After a little break, next system with chc of rain
arrives for Sunday.  Overall temperatures will remain below normal
thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Widespread MVFR CIGS and will persist across northeast ND... with
areas of MVFR VSBYS in light snow and mist along and north of
the U.S. Highway 2 corridor from the Red River into northern MN.
Expect this band to slowly lift northward and diminish from the
west through the overnight period. Blayer flow from the east will
persist across the FA throughout the overnight. A mix of heavier
rain and snow will develop across this area through the forenoon
on Monday. Winds should turn from the southeast through midday.

Along and south of the U.S. Highway 2 corridor... expect mainly
MVFR conds through the overnight with persistent easterly blayer
flow. On Monday forenoon...a low pressure center should move into
northeast SD and lift through southeast ND during the midday.
Expect mainly VFR conds with scattered showers developing through
the day and blayer flow increasing from the southeast.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     NDZ006>008-014-015-024-026-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Gust



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