Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 200842
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE AIR APPEARS TO STAY DRY AT ALL LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS IN ND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO OUR
AREA WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING FROM SUNDAY GIVEN A
GREATER STABLE LAYER ALOFT...BUT DECENT LATE OCTOBER HEATING WILL
STILL MAKE FOR A MILD DAY WITH MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S
SOUTHWEST. THE DRY AIR AND STABLE LAYER WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
CUMULUS FROM FORMING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP VERY GRADUALLY
WEST WHILE A VERY MODEST NORTH/NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUES EAST.

TONIGHT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EAST...AND THE SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
WEST. NEAR 40 EAST TO THE UPPER 40S WEST LOOKS GOOD FOR LOWS.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FEW ITEMS OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH OVERALL
STILL LOOKING AT A RELATIVELY BENIGN AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR TUESDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF MID-WEEK WAVE. BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND...BUT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 25+ MPH ALONG
WITH THE RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE DURING PEAK
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN OUR WESTERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF THE WAVE/ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP. GFS/ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED...THOUGH DID LAG
SOME LOWER PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FARTHER WEST OF WHAT THESE FASTER
MODELS WOULD INDICATE TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. WILL STILL BE A
MILD DAY COMPARED TO SEASONAL NORMALS...THOUGH CLOUDS/RAIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN TUESDAY MOST AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECT JUST
SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AND HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

FOR THE LONGER RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH IF FASTER 20/00Z GFS/ECMWF VERIFY...
MOST AREAS IN OUR CWA SHOULD BE DRY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
LONGER RANGE WILL FEATURE CONTINUATION OF MILD PATTERN AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE MID-WEEK TROUGH. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
POPS BY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT IF MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
FASTER TIMING CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE 20/00Z GFS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ



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