Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
000
FXUS63 KFSD 161955
AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
255 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions continue through the
afternoon. Sunday will see similar wind/RH conditions, but
will be a bit on the cold side so high to very high fire
danger is expected.
- Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are expected heading into
the weekend, with highs below seasonal normals Sunday.
- Pattern shift possible by late next week which could bring
increasing chances for precipitation back to the forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Breezy conditions continue to prevail across the region, with latest
observations showing scattered stratocu and temperatures in the mid
to upper 40s. Gusts throughout the early afternoon hours have ranged
between 30 to 40 MPH, with a few locations even gusting to 45 MPH.
Expect these gusts to persist at least through sunset, which
combined with falling dewpoints and relative humidities will lead to
critical to near critical fire weather concerns across the region.
Thus, we encourage you to refrain from any activities that may cause
a spark!
Gusty winds look to briefly subside tonight as lows fall into the
20s. Can`t rule out the possibility of seeing some light
snow/flurries along and north of Highway-14 after midnight, though
accumulations look to remain negligible at this time. Otherwise,
expect much of the same Sunday, in terms of dry weather and breezy
northwest winds, with gusts once again between 25 to 35 MPH. While
the risk for fire danger is there, expect highs in the 30s to lower
40s to help mitigate the overall threat.
Sfc high pressure builds across the region Sunday night, allowing
winds to shift and become more southwesterly by Monday afternoon.
Highs during this time look to remain in the 40s to lower 50s with
temperatures mostly in the 50s possible by Tuesday. As alluded to in
days past, upper level ridging is expected to prevail over the
western CONUS though mid-week as a pronounced upper level low
wobbles over southern California. Flow turns more zonal heading into
Thursday, with an upper level shortwave progged to eject eastward
across the Northern Plains. Still have a bit of time to narrow in on
the specifics, but most guidance generally agrees the next best
chance for seeing precipitation will be Thursday night into Friday.
Unsettled weather then looks to continue heading into the weekend as
a series of shortwaves take aim at the region. Otherwise, look for
high to remain in the 40s with overnight lows falling into the
20s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Stratocu continues to push southward across the region, with most
sites currently at VFR levels. Expect breezy northwesterly winds to
continue through the afternoon, with gusts up to 35 MPH possible.
Will see winds lessen a bit after sunset, with gusts between 15 to
25 MPH still possible for much of the overnight period. Otherwise,
look for gusts to increase again after daybreak Sunday as cloud
cover gradually builds across the area.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Critical fire weather is expected in most locations
today as strong winds couple with very dry fuels and a dry
atmosphere. South central SD will remain in a watch as conditions
remain just a bit above critical as relative humidities would need
to fall below 20 percent. Northeast NE and parts of northwest IA had
some recent rain and this should aid in keeping conditions just
short of red flag. Sunday will see strong winds and dry conditions
again, but with temperatures more in the 30s to lower 40s it will
be a bit on the colder side, so mainly high to very high conditions.
Monday will see continued fire weather concerns, but winds will be a
little lighter so mainly high to very high. The end of the week into
next weekend continues to show potential for precipitation.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040-
052>056-058>062-064>070.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...SST
FIRE WEATHER...08