Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 150330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1030 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Strong mid and upper wave will be moving eastward across the
forecast area tonight, exiting our far eastern zones between 06Z and
09Z. The wave is strong, with -24C noted at 500mb and a 120 knot jet
accompanying it. A second round of light rainfall is probable this
evening and overnight, lifting from southwest to northeast with a
band of rainfall currently in central SD. This is along the strong
surge of PV and is likely to fill in as it moves eastward. So thus
kept likely or categorical pops going this evening generally along
and north of I 90 where moisture depth is robust, with less pops
warranted south of I 90 as the mid and upper levels are much drier.
Additional rainfall amounts will be light, and areas of drizzle are
still warranted ahead of the wind shift with the aforementioned dry
mid and upper layers in our southern zones until very early this
evening. But as the deep layer northwest and northerly winds move
through, the drizzle threat will end, or at least visibility
reductions due to drizzle. It continues to look windy tonight behind
the wind shift due to cold air advection and a strong surge of PV.
Wind speeds of 20 to 35 mph are quite likely for several hours
behind the wind shift, but mixed layer winds suggest speeds below
wind advisory criteria. For lows, bias corrected readings looked
good for our western zones where the winds will become pretty light
and skies will clear first. However in the east, manually raised
lows a few degrees east of I 29 due to winds and cloud cover hanging
on much longer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Sunday begins the trend of a pleasant week of weather coming up. It
still looks dry through the week, with no mention of rainfall until
possibly next Saturday east of I 29, and across the area Saturday
night. On Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday, raised highs a category
over superblend readings given the 900-850mb thermal regime. In
addition, there appears to be a lack of southeast winds which could
hold down temperatures those three days, with wind directions more
from the south or southwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

MVFR ceilings at KFSD and KSUX will lift by 08Z, with
northwesterly winds gusting to around 25 to 30 kts decreasing
after 10Z. With clearing skies by late night, the remainder of the
TAF period will have VFR conditions.




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