Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 110330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1030 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Some light afternoon and early evening diurnally driven instability
showers will remain possible across east central SD and southwest
MN. While the freezing level is marginally low, around 10500 feet,
instability in the form of CAPE appears too skinny and too low to
worry about any small hail.

Clouds will then clear through the night as high pressure settles
south. While stratus should remain to the north and east of the
area overnight into Friday morning, east of the Buffalo Ridge
could see a little stratus late tonight with northeast winds in
the low levels. To the west of any potential stratus, fog will be
possible so will add in some patchy fog.

Lows tonight under high pressure will be from about 50 to 55 while
highs on Friday will just be a degree or two warmer than today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

A reinforcing wave drops southward into North Dakota by later Friday
night, and continues slowly southeast across the Dakotas/Minnesota
through the upcoming weekend. The result will be increasing chances
for showers across much of the region this weekend, mainly focused
west of I-29 Saturday, then spreading eastward Saturday into Sunday.
With the rain and clouds, daytime temperatures will remain on the
cool side of normal with highs mainly in the 70s, and possibly some
upper 60s, both days. Rainfall does not look to be overly heavy in
any location, especially with only meager instability limiting the
potential for thunderstorms. However, some locations could see rain
totals in excess of a third to a half inch over the course of the

The influence of this trough will begin to wane Sunday night into
Monday, allowing weak upper ridging to slide across the Northern
Plains early next week. This will provide a drier period through
Tuesday, but another trough moving out of the Rockies is slated to
impact the region toward the middle of the week. Seeing some of the
typical model discrepancies at this range, with some models bringing
precipitation back into western parts of the forecast area as early
as Tuesday afternoon/evening, while slower solutions hold off until
Wednesday. Will carry some spotty thunderstorm chances, mainly late
Tuesday night into Thursday, but more precise timing should come in
to better focus as we progress through the weekend.

As far as temperatures, the weak ridging should allow temperatures
to slowly moderate closer to seasonal normals in the lower-mid 80s
by Tuesday and Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

With light winds, patchy fog will be possible across portions of
the area later tonight in early Friday morning. Outside of this
impact, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.




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