Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231750
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1150 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
LOOK FOR READINGS TO BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY AFT 18Z AS WAA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WRM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...DON`T REALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL CHANCES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO COLD FROPA. WITH
EXCEPTION BEING THE NW AND NC PARTS OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
SENT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.







&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS
AND MILD TEMPS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FROPA ALREADY THROUGH
KMBG...AND WILL BE THROUGH KPIR BY 20Z...KABR AND KATY BY 23Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS
WILL BE LOW VFR THROUGH 10Z MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING FEW-SCT.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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