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000
FXUS63 KABR 230908
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
408 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO SHALLOW TO RESULT IN ANY TYPE OF
FOG. STILL A VERY LIMITED CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA...SO DID LEAVE A MENTION ACROSS THIS AREA.

THE RIDGE WILL TRACK FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AT
THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL SET UP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
WEST OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA WILL LIKELY SEE
GUSTS IN THE 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ACROSS THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION...BUT SHOULD RISE INTO THE
70S ELSEWHERE.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...SHIFTING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A 30 TO 40 KT 925 LLJ SETS UP BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL IS SUGGESTING THAT WIND ADVISORY
WINDS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW LEVEL PATTERN...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL STAY OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT
THERE MAY BE A WEAKER WAVE OF ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES SO
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS...GRADUALLY BRINGING IN POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. NOT A REAL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH ONLY
AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE SHOWING UP WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...AND LITTLE OR NO ML CAPE ELSEWHERE.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S. THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SEVERAL
WAVES OF ENERGY /MUCH MORE DEFINED THAN FRIDAY/ WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. ALONG WITH ML CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS...WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRIED TO
FINE-TUNE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT THIS WAS
CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
UNDER THE RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP A BOUNDARY
FOCAL POINT FOR STORM/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. EC/GEM/GFS ALL HAVE TIMING/INTENSITY/POSITION
DIFFERENCES. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ALL SEEM TO HIT THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE CWA HARDER WITH RAIN CHANCES THAN THE NORTHWESTERN
PART AND TRIED TO REFLECT THAT TREND A BIT IN 6 HR POP GRIDS.

MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBY FOG
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN