Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 070000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SOME CIRRUS
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING A LITTLE BIT THIS
AFTERNOON.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL START TO MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL SEND SOME ENERGY INTO
THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. DURING THE EVENING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. BY LATER
TONIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND HAVE KEPT
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH FOR LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS EVEN KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY TONIGHT. IF THERE ARE
ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEY COULD LINGER
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND SHOULD BE
NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER OR POSSIBLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SOME OF THE
MODELS BRING A LITTLE INTO THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE MUCAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INCREASES TO AROUND 2000
J/KG AND THE SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS NEAR THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE WEEKEND PERIOD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO
BE ACTIVE WEATHERWISE WITH CHANCES FOR TSTMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITHIN THE MEAN CYCLONE OVER THE ROCKIES
LIFTS NORTHEAST THRU COLORADO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENING IN EASTERN COLORADO. CONVECTION MAY BE
ONGOING HEADING INTO THE EVENING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS SOME
CAMS MODELS SUGGEST...HOWEVER MAIN FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE DRY LINE IS PROGGED
TO ALIGN IN WESTERN KS...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG MODELS WHERE
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE...FROM AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL KANSAS...TO AS
FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN NEB. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION MAY BE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...AND CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS WITH
STORMS TRACKING NORTHWARD. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO WITH BOUNDARIES AROUND...IN PRESENCE
OF INSTABILITY NEAR 2500 J/KG AND GOOD SHEAR.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM STORMS IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
CONVECTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...AND BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND
DEVELOPS. THE WESTERN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN NEB AND IN
INCREASING DYNAMICS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE AND WARM FRONT IN THE EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AND MAY BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW THINGS UNFOLD ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR MOTHERS DAY. MODEL INSTABILITY PROGS ARE HIGHER SUNDAY
VS SATURDAY HOWEVER THE LLVL SHEAR IS WEAKER. REGARDLESS SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...HOWEVER WILL NOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS LOOKING WET AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OUT ACROSS NEBRASKA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE DRY SLOT AND PROXIMITY TO THE
SFC BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTN.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TREND DRIER IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE
UPSTREAM KICKER MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN A
TROUGHY PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAST THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IS A PRETTY SURE THING AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



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