Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 262038
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
238 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Clear skies and west winds will continue into the evening today.
Winds will gradually shift to the south overnight. Despite the
light south breeze, still expect lows to drop into the low 20s
across most of the area due to the dry air.

Moisture and midlevel clouds will also gradually increase tomorrow,
but it still appears that any fog will remain east of the area.
NAM still tries to generate some drizzle, but has shifted the best
potential farther east, therefore thinking that it will just be
stratus tomorrow afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

The trend on the Monday night precipitation has continued to
trend downward, therefore, I have removed all mention
precipitation from that period. I still included a mention for
patchy fog given the low level moisture, but don`t think it will
be deep enough for anything more than that.

A cold front will push through Monday morning. This will likely
scour out any fog that has developed by mid morning Tuesday as
drier air gets advected into the area from the northwest.

The main trough is still on-track to push through the region late
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, but it continues to
trend southward as well. Right now, it looks like all
precipitation will stay south of the tri-cities and most of the
precipitation will fall as rain, as boundary layer temperatures
will be above freezing until late Wednesday night. Therefore,
little to no snow accumulation is expected. Of course, there is
still time for this to trend a bit farther north, but right now it
doesn`t look like it will have a large impact on our area.

The rest of the forecast period should be pretty quiet weather-
wise. There are a few weak perturbations in northwesterly flow
late in the week, but models have been pretty consistent in
keeping any precipitation out of central Nebraska and north-
central Kansas.

That said, there could be several days with at least near-
critical fire weather conditions. The first major concern will be
Wednesday, as northwest winds will be quite strong. RH values are
forecast to be in the low 20s in Kansas as well, but of course
this could be altered by precipitation system on Tuesday night.

Temperature-wise, high temperatures will generally be in the 40s
to low 50s all week, then warming up into the 60s for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1047 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

VFR conditions are currently expected through the TAF period.
Clouds will increase late Monday morning, but any potential for
MVFR ceilings is low and would most likely be after 18z anyway.
Winds will be out of the west today and gradually shift to the
south this evening into Monday morning.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels


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