Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 312318
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
618 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SURFACE LOW VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS RAPIDLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...AND WITH UP TO 1000 JOULES OF MU CAPE TO WORK
WITH...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN
SPOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND
TRACKS SOUTH. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO BLEND OF RAP/NAM GUIDANCE
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY DISSIPATE DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS AND
INSTABILITY WANES. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO SHORT
TERM FORECAST AS ANOTHER SEASONABLY NICE EVENING IS EXPECTED ONCE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FOR THOSE FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO
RECEIVE ANY.

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY NICE DAY...POSSIBLY EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
REMAIN SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOONS BEHIND THE DISSIPATING LOW.
OTHERWISE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD BY MID
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...KEPT
FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS ARE GIVING SOME HINTS OF
PRECIPITATION BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY
TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AND SOME OF THE MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY QPF. DESPITE THIS...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS TO PICK
WHEN THERE WILL BE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BREAKS
DOWN THE RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MOVING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TRANSITION EASTERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY.  CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY


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