Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 271140
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
540 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WELL AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP IN BETWEEN THE STRONG STORM
AFFECTING THE NERN CONUS AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE RESULT IN ANOTHER NICE QUIET NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER...AND A WEAK SURFACE
PATTERN BRINGING LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

THE FORECAST REMAINS FREE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION. THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST...EVENTUALLY PASSING OVER THE THE REGION
TONIGHT.

IT LOOKS TO BE A GREAT DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY...WITH WINDS NOT
AS BREEZY AS MONDAY...TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH. THE
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH TEMPERATURES
TODAY...AND HOW WARM THEY WILL GET. THOUGH THE SFC PATTERN IS
CURRENTLY WEAK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES FROM THE WEST COAST. THE MAIN PUSH FOR THE
DEEPENING SFC TROUGH AXIS IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA...SO IT LOOKS TO MEANDER OVER PORTIONS OF WRN NEB/KS. THIS
THROWS SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE WIND FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE CENTRAL AND ESP ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LOOK TO SIT WITH S/SERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT HOW FAR EAST
THAT SFC TROUGH CAN DRIFT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A WRLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OUR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WARM TEMPS OFF THE SFC AT
925/850MB...AND LOCATIONS WHERE MORE OF THOSE WRLY WINDS ARE
PRESENT WILL STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING A TOUCH HIGHER AND
TAPPING A BIT MORE INTO THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. FORECAST HIGHS
FOR TODAY RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE FAR E/NE...TO MID 70S IN THE
W/SW WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT ARE AND FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW
MIXING POTENTIAL BEING A BIT HIGHER...A GOOD 15 DEGREE SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AN END TO THIS RIDGING OVER
OUR AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE...NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. QUASI-ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY OMEGA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. IN
ADDITION...TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN MEAGER
AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS ON OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA PERSISTS ACROSS
THE REGION.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA...ALONG WITH TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. PRECIPITATION ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE AREA...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY MORNING
AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH LIKE IT WAS DOING 24 HOURS
AGO...WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO NOW
LINGERS A BROAD BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EC. GIVEN ALL THIS...POPS SEEM MORE THAN
WARRANTED ACROSS MOST ALL OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONTEMPLATED INSERTING SOME LOW POPS ACROSS OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS
SUGGESTS...BUT GIVEN THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...OPTED TO KEEP THAT PERIOD DRY AND ALLOW
FUTURE SHIFTS TO ADJUST AS NECESSARY.

ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE WHAT COULD
ULTIMATELY PROVE TO BE AN ACCURATE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
THAT TAKING THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL RESULT ACROSS OUR CWA THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS VERIFY...AND THIS PRECIPITATION COULD
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE ~3 INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
TWO MAIN POINTS TO TAKE AWAY FROM ALL OF THIS: 1) ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. 2) FUTURE MODEL
RUNS NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THERE IS AT LEAST A
POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND THREE
INCHES SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
PROVIDING WARM TEMPERATURE READINGS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THUS ALLOWING A COOLER AIR
MASS INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT ON
SATURDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S AND
LOWS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FINALLY...THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AND FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND...WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUCH CONDITIONS
WILL BE NOTED IN THE HWO...AND DETAILS REGARDING FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...STILL EXPECTING
QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE A FEW UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAM THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...OTHERWISE
SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR. THE WEAK SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A TROUGH AXIS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...BEFORE TURNING MORE TO THE SW TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHILE DEW POINT READINGS REMAIN NEAR 30 DEGREES. RESULTANT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 25% ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION
TO THE LOW VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY...A SUSTAINED WIND OF
18-20KTS...ALONG WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS...ARE ALSO FORECAST.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

AFTER 19 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMP BELOW NORMAL
/DEC 27TH-JAN 13TH/ WE HAVE FLIPPED TO THE OTHER SIDE WITH A
LENGTHY STRETCH OF WARMER TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. THIS
WARM SPELL BEGAN BACK ON THE 14TH.

LISTED BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS VS THE CURRENT FCST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

TUE 1/27
GRI: 68 IN 1934. FCST: 65
HSI: 67 IN 1934. FCST: 66

WED 1/28
GRI: 63 IN 1986. FCST: 64
HSI: 69 IN 1931. FCST: 64

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT


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