Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 261136
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
636 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Latest radar trends show a quick curtailing of measurable
precipitation, so I cut off measurable precip across the entire
CWA after 12Z. However, some short-term models indicate that there
may still be just enough lift between 12Z and 15Z to give us some
sprinkles in our southeast, but subsidence should really kick in
past 15Z behind the northern plains shortwave trough as surface
high pressure builds in, and we should see some sunshine by
afternoon for much of the CWA with shortwave ridging, especially
northwest.

Went close to Superblend temps for highs/lows (60s/40s), but may
need to wind up going a touch colder for tonight if wind dies down
enough as the center of the surface high nears. Subsidence should
still be strong enough to keep much fog from developing.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Near normal temperatures and dry weather is on tap for most of the
forecast area through Friday. An upper level low will slowly
traverse the desert southwest into the Four-Corners region Thursday
and gradually lift northeast into Friday. A couple weak disturbances
will be ejected from this wave and may be just enough to develop
scattered showers across the High Plains. Moisture will be
relatively limited, so impacts will be minor and most, if not all of
the forecast area will stay dry.

Slight chances for showers return to the area Saturday morning as
the upper low moves north of the area and moisture advection
increases. Still expect that any rainfall will be quite spotty and
relatively light.

Another strong upper low is forecast to move into the area Sunday
into Monday. This system appears to generate enough moisture and
instability return to see thunderstorms across the area once again.
Model solutions are still uncertain on exact timing of the cold
front and therefore rain amounts are quite varied. That said, I
could see this being another beneficial late-season rain for a good
portion of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Ceilings should improve as the day progresses. Most elements from
the KGRI ob are currently missing, but it seemed like there were
enough nearby observations to garner a forecast. A tricky time
will be at the very beginning of the forecast when the observation
may teeter between IFR and MVFR. VFR conditions are expected by
this afternoon at both terminals.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Heinlein



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