Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 100055
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
655 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WILL
ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 7PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014

SCT-BKN SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EAST. A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A
WEAK COOL FRONT INTO NE UT/NW CO LATER TONIGHT...WHERE IT WILL
LINGER AND DISSIPATE ON THU. MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL MOISTURE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST...SO THE LOW POPS CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE FAR NRN CO MTNS STILL LOOK REASONABLE TONIGHT AND THU.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH THU WITH SIMILAR READINGS AS TODAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. A SMALL EMBEDDED WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH THU
NIGHT FOR SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.

GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TAIL OFF RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET THIS EVENING. EXPECT SIMILAR GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A 50-60KT UPPER SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE 4 CORNERS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES FOR DEEP MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014

A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CA ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM FROM
THE NORTHWEST. BUT FOR OUR CWA ON FRIDAY...THE THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX FOR LIGHTER WINDS AS WE WAIT TO FEEL THE IMPACT OF THESE TOW
DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN LOW
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL
BE TOO HIGH TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS...EVEN OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE WAVE. THEN ON SAT/SAT NIGHT...MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AS THE SOUTHERN LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO NEW MEXICO. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW SAT AFTERNOON. BUT THE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...WITH SHOWERS ALSO SPREADING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL
BRING BETTER MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS PATTERN. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE EXPECTED...BUT AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK LIKE IN-BETWEEN DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING. THEN THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH LOTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND AGAIN AFTER 17Z ON THURSDAY...PRODUCING LIGHT TO
MODERATE TURBULENCE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
BRIEF OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 403 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014

A DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAS FLATTENED THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS TIGHTENED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN COLORADO...RESULTING IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH...FUELS ARE NOT CRITICALLY DRY THERE.
GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTH...DIMINISHING BEFORE SUNSET...AFTER THE DIURNAL HEATING
PEAKS. THEN ON THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT TRAILING
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO.
THEREFORE GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THESE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND DRY FUELS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM MDT. ALSO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ205-207.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MPM
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...MPM
FIRE WEATHER...EH



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