Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 232044
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
244 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. AT MID AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING AFTER FROPA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED OVER THE CO MTNS NEAR THE
DIVIDE AND THESE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE 6 PM. THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNSET.

LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP PRODUCE SOME SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND CO NW PLATEAU. AROUND THE MT ZIRKEL AREA AND
FLATTOPS A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH UP TO 4 OR 5
INCHES ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS BEFORE IT ALL ENDS SUNDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

MONDAY WILL SEE BRIEF RIDGING AND DRYING AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE
CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS STORM IS
NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY`S BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ABOUT THE SAME TIME OF DAY...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NW UT INTO SW WYOMING TUE WITH
COLD ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE MT AND HIGH PLATEAU SNOWFALL MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU WILL BE IN-BETWEEN DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM APPROACHES.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN THU THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. SAT WILL BE COOLER
AND WETTER AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND A REINFORCING
TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE MAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. WIND GUST OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BE
COMMON AT MOST AIRPORTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECT EAST
OF A LINE FROM CRAIG TO MONTROSE TO DURANGO WITH SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED AND CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS.

CONDITION WILL IMPROVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CO AND UT. COLDER
AIR WILL BRING AREAS OF SNOWFALL OVER THE CO AND UT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CAUSING MT TOP OBSCURATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ANOTHER STRONG WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A SIMILAR
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002-006-007-
     011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...CC



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