Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 270937
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
337 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL GLIDE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PUSH
SOME OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THE BEST
CLEARING WILL BE THIS MORNING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST.

AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY...GOOD MODELS
SHOW GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SOME VERTICAL SHEAR SO HAVE ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN AZ AND SOUTHERN UT AT 500 MB WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN UT AND CO BORDERS. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT AND UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE FOUR
CORNER AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CO FRI MORNING. AS THIS STORM
MOVES OUT TO THE EAST ANOTHER STRONG LOW DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FRI NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NV TO NORTH AZ THEN
INTO SOUTHERN UT SUNDAY. IT CONTINUES MORNING NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN UT TO SOUTHERN WY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS
FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE CO MTS THIS MORNING. KTEX AND KASE
MAY CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED WITH LOWER FLIGHT CRITERIA CIGS AND
VSBY DUE TO SNOW OR FOG THROUGH 18Z. MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BE FRQTLY
OBSCURED.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE FORECAST
TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 19Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM BEGINS
TO AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC


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