Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 142152
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
252 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2014

LEAD PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS UT/CO THIS EVENING HAS
ALREADY SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING. THE FOCUS OF
STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF MONTROSE OVER
THE SAN JUAN MTNS. INSTABILITY EVIDENCED BY LIGHTNING DETECTED
OVER SRN UT WILL ALSO ENABLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SRN CO...ENHANCING PRECIP RATES EARLY TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE...MODERATELY MOIST WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRONTAL FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. FRONTAL TIMING LOOKS TO BE
INTO NE UT/NW CO BY 8 AM...I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND 2 PM...AND OVER
SRN UT/CO BETWEEN 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A BURST OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
AREAS. SNOWLEVELS WILL BE TRICKY FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING...THE PRECIP COULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID.
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT PASSAGE THE FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY AND WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOWFALL FOR THE FAVORED NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS UNTIL THE
MOISTURE PLUME DRIES UP.

WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORY...AND
HAVE ADDED ZONE 8...THE UPPER INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR TO AN
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 6
TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 1-4 IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LOWER VALLEYS
COULD SEE A TRACE TO ONE INCH OF SNOW EITHER TONIGHT OR POST-FRONT
LATE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2014

ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 WILL LIKELY SEE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS OF THE SEASON
MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK AND
SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE DIVIDE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT.

HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE WITH SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST
DEAMPLIFYING AND MOVING EAST. WILL SEE SOME WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEK...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE
FLOWS OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FLAT TOPS...PARK AND GORE
RANGES. LOOKS CONTINUED ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DETAILS
UNCERTAIN. HAVE ACCEPTED THE LOW POPS GENERATED BY A BLEND OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2014

CHALLENGING TAF PERIOD WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DUE TO
AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS THAT KEEP
STEADIER PRECIP SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KMTJ TO KASE AND TRIED TO
TIME THIS PERIOD AND ASSOCIATED LOWER VSBY AND CIG THROUGH THE TAF
SITES. WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR MINIMUMS REACHED AT KTEX AND KASE
OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY AT KEGE. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER AND
SOUTH OF SAN JAN MTNS...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO
CONFIDENCE LEVEL. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY SAT
MORNING BEFORE NEXT SURGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ004-005-009-010-012>014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ017.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ002.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...BEN



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