Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 190854
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS
AROUND 10K THOUGH A FEW SITES REPORTING CIGS NEAR 5K FEET AT
TIMES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEING AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGR



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