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000
FXUS65 KGJT 112151
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
351 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WERE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN AFTER SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY. WITH A BIT COOLER AIR BRIEFLY MOVING
IN...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
TEXAS...AND AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WA/OR COAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL MAINTAIN THE ABOVE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPS FOR
ERN UT/WRN CO WEDNESDAY. A JET MAX WAS DRIVING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INTO SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL REACH OUR
AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE CLOUDS PLUS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SHOULD RESULT IN A BIT LESS
WIND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL EXHIBIT A GUSTY
NATURE AND WITH LOW HUMIDITY...THE DRYING POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
HIGH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NE UT/NW CO WED BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR WED NIGHT AS
THE PAC NW TROUGH BEGINS TO ROTATE INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH THE
START OF SUMMER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THURSDAY WILL INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO INCREASE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
IN ELEVATED AREAS WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. MOST SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND BUT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC LOW WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING UP
AGAIN SATURDAY AS THE LOW RAPIDLY PASSES TO THE EAST. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAFS SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAIN RANGES DUE TO
MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO...AS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING TROUGH ALOFT AND WEAK COLD FRONT COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY WINDS LESSEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELEASES...THOUGH AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL STILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND.

THURSDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THAT WILL AGAIN INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND INCREASE THE SW
GRADIENT WINDS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
FAVORING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BUT RH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW THROUGH
THE DAY FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AT THIS TIME...WINDS THIS WEEKEND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL CONCERNS BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CHANGING CONDITIONS.

A DRY WARM SW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS DURING THIS OUR DRIEST
MONTH OF THE YEAR.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS DURING THIS
OUR DRIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ203-207-
     290>293.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ203-290-292.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD