Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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250
FXUS65 KGJT 061430
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
730 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ROLLING INTO THE OFFICE THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MESA COUNTY. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...BUT HAVE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
VISIBILITY DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES
WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO AND GUNNISON RIVERS AND NEAR I-70 IN
THE VICINITY OF FRUITA. OTHER VALLEYS SEEING PATCHY FOG AS
WELL...BUT VISIBILITIES AND WEB CAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES GREATER
THAN ONE MILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WITH
ITS AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WAS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO THERE SHOULD
BE ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HUGGING THE NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE LESSEN SUNDAY AS THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ERODES.

THE ONLY OVER WEATHER OF NOTE IS THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UT AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
GRAND VALLEY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE...
STRATUS...AND AREAS OF FOG IN PLACE THROUGH MIDMORNING. IT SHOULD
RETURN TONIGHT AS WELL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
VERY COLD LOW TEMPS IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE COMING WEEK ACCORDING TO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS A RESULT
...EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT INVERTED
VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND TO WARMING TREND. THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A A PAIR OF
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE RETAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO KEEP DEEP
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL BE
ANY RELIEF FROM VALLEY INVERSIONS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT MIST EXTENDING FROM EASTERN UTAH/S
GRAND FLAT AND CANYON COUNTRY REGION TO THE WESTERN GRAND VALLEY
TO PERSIST THROUGH 14Z. AS THE SUN COMES UP...EXPECT THE BLANKET
OF STRATUS WILL ERODE FROM THE EDGES AND WILL LIFT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIKE YESTERDAY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT THE
CLOUD MASS WILL ENTIRELY DISSIPATE OVER KCNY THOUGH THIS MORNING/S
LIFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 18Z. SINCE STRONG INVERSIONS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...LOOK FOR THE CLOUD
FIELD TO EXPAND AFTER 00Z/SUN WITH COVERAGE SIMILAR TO THAT
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DO NOT EXPECT WEATHER
RELATED IMPACTS AT REMAINING AIRPORTS WITHIN THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ006.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



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