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000
FXUS65 KGJT 101704
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1004 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WAS BEING FULLY FELT THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY
ALL VALLEY TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...AND COLDER THAN MONDAY
MORNING. ONE CHANGE THIS MORNING...THE MOUNTAINS ARE NOT A LOT
COLDER THEN THE VALLEYS AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE
700-500MB LAYER. ALSO STRATUS CEILINGS ARE SPREADING EAST OF A
LINE FROM VERNAL TO ASPEN AS A WEAK WAVE DIVES IN FROM THE NW. THE
WARMING AT MOUNTAIN-TOP LEVEL WILL BE DISRUPTED A BIT TODAY AS
THIS WAVE PASSES. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL START OVER THE ELKHEADS-
ZIRKELS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN
FLATTOPS AND DOWN THE PARK RANGE INTO THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 1-3 INCHES.

CLEAR SKIES RETURN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO FAR THIS AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN BELOW VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND THERE HAS
BEEN VIRTUALLY NO EVAPORATION OF THE SNOWPACK INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SO HAVE SCALED BACK FOG TO JUST THE BIG UINTAH AND GUNNISON
BASINS. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR OPEN RIVER
COURSES OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY VERY COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE
VALLEYS WHILE MOUNTAIN SLOPES CLIMB INTO THE RELATIVELY MILD LOW
20S TO LOW 30S IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER
AIR WORKS SOUTH WITH ENERGY DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM DRAGS ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW. ATTM...SYSTEM NOT
PACKING A TON OF MOISTURE AND ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THEN SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
FEW MINOR WAVES PASSING AND CLIPPING THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT...00Z ECMWF AND GFS
HINTING AT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE PUSHING INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ABOVE THE 6 TO 7K LEVEL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER
SNOW COVERED VALLEYS AS WARMING ALOFT SETS UP STRONG INVERSIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE...EXCEPT AT KCAG...KHDN...KSBS WHERE
BROKEN LOWER CLOUD WILL INTERMITTENTLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS. LOCALIZED
FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE GUNNISON AND UINTAH BASINS AGAIN AFTER
06Z TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...CC