Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 301633

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1033 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Split flow continues over the western CONUS according to the
latest upper air hand analysis on the H5 chart. This does not bode
well for a widespread precipitation event over our CWA. However we
should see a slight increase in coverage of showers and
thunderstorms activity today as the upstream troughs swing
eastward over the next 24 to 36 hours. As expected the northern
stream trough is associated with a stronger jet and will
accelerate at a quicker pace across the northern states. It still
appears however that the two system will phase temporarily across
our region today and this leads to the uptick in convection. The
northern stream energy has been holding convection together over
the Utah Panhandle early this morning...while satellite imagery
suggests mid level instability is in place ahead of the southern
stream with abundant ACCAS across the region. Ingredients for
convection come together a little better in the north today so the
lower elevations will have a better chance of seeing a passing
shower. Otherwise expect convection to continue to favor the
higher terrain. There may be some lingering showers/storms
associated with a mid level front that will be draped near the
I-70 corridor overnight. The forcing for ascent will be well east
of our cwa on Tuesday. Mid level instability and residual moisture
will still allow some mountain showers to develop in the afternoon
heating...but this should be limited to the divide mountains and
portions of the San Juans. Temperatures remain near normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

The closed low will stall over Arizona, propagate southward,
and stay south of our forecast area through Wednesday before it
weakens. During this time frame, afternoon convection should stay
anchored over the higher terrain for the most part. In the
meantime, 500 mb heights strengthen high pressure over the
western US and qill slowly shift its axis over eastern Utah and
western Colorado by next weekend. Summer-like weather will truly
show up late this week and next weekend as temperatures soar into
the 90s across the lower valleys and into the upper 60s in the
high mountains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1033 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at airports across eastern Utah and
western Colorado through the next 24 hours. However, daytime
warming and residual moisture will combine to generate scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain from 18Z through
03Z this evening. The strongest cells will be capable producing
outflow winds to 35 MPH and will briefly obscure mountains.
Otherwise, winds will be relatively light and terrain driven.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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