Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 271057
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
357 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Updated this morning`s low temperatures as increasing cloud cover
and a bit of wind kept temperatures 5 to 8 degrees warmer than
expected. The next storm system appears to be strengthening over
the Pacific NW with its cold front sweeping across northern NV and
into NW UT. A strong polar jet rounds the bottom of the trough and
curves toward the north over WY and the high plains, while to
subtropical jet is arcing north over southern CA. The surface cold
front should push through NE UT into extreme NW CO late this
afternoon and early evening then progress through most of the
forecast area overnight and hanging up over SW CO Tuesday morning.
It appears the front will push through SW CO by late Tue morning
or early in the afternoon. As this occurs significant moisture
from the subtropical flow should be injected into the flow over SW
CO. Thus, the precipitation will be more focused on SW Colorado
and SE Utah.

Have enough confidence in snowfall over the lower elevations of
SW CO to upgrade the Winter Storm Watch over the Durango and
Pagosa Springs areas, zones 22 and 23, to Winter Storm Warnings
starting at 01Z this evening through Tuesday afternoon (00Z
Wednesday). Decided to add the Cortez vicinity, zone 21 as an
advisory. Also include zone 14, the Gunnison vicinity, in an
advisory as well for the same time period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

By sunset Tuesday the cold front will be pushing out of the
forecast area to the south and east. The flow will have shifted to
the northwest shifting the focus of snowfall over the San Juan
mountains to areas north of Red Mountain Pass, with the northern
and portions of the central mountains receiving better orographic
snow. Most of the moisture will lift out of the area by Wednesday
morning, with only remnant orographic snowfall continuing over the
CO northwest mountains. The pattern will persist through Friday,
then the flow aloft will become more westerly and final
southwesterly on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 331 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the central and southern areas
this morning, with a cold front sweeping across NW CO and NE UT.
KGJT will see enhanced SE drainage winds this morning. The cold
front will sweep from north to south across the region from today
through Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front winds will increase
from the southwest becoming windy at most TAF sites around midday.
Stronger winds in the mountains are expected to generate LLWS
over KMTJ, KASE, KEGE and KTEX through the night and into the
morning and strong turbulence aloft throughout the day. As the
front approaches and passes through, TAF sites will see CIGS fall
below ILS breakpoints with MVFR VSBY developing in snow, or an
initial mix of rain and snow. Brief IFR conditions are likely. See
the TAFs for detailed information on timing and impacts to
airport operations.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Tuesday night for
     COZ009-010-017.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST Tuesday night for COZ012-
     018-019.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
     Tuesday for COZ020-021.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
     Tuesday for COZ014.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST
     Tuesday for COZ004-013.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday
     for COZ022-023.

UT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MST this evening
     for UTZ023.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Tuesday night for
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC


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