


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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604 FXUS65 KGJT 132202 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 402 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal temperatures remain status quo through the seven- day forecast. - Outflow winds and dry lightning remain a threat tomorrow as thunderstorm coverage increases across the western Colorado terrain. - Coverage of afternoon showers and storms will continue to gradually increase as the week wears on. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 357 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Not much change to the synoptic environment tomorrow as high pressure centered off to the southwest continues to promote hot and dry conditions across eastern Utah and western Colorado. Tomorrow`s high temperature forecast is almost a carbon copy of today`s with overnight lows dropping into the 50s (mountains) and 60s (valleys). The risk for heat-related illness remains elevated during the heat of the day, so be sure to stay hydrated and take sufficient shade breaks if you are working or recreating outside tomorrow afternoon. Moisture transport continues along the western slope of the Divide supporting another round of afternoon showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. We expect the coverage of showers and storms to increase over the Colorado mountains with dry lightning and gusty outflow winds being the main thunderstorm hazards. The passage of a subtle wave along our northern border with Wyoming tomorrow afternoon/evening will also produce a dry lightning threat. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 357 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 High pressure will continue to support hot and dry conditions, with increased PoPs in the afternoon. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms vary each day as weak moisture advection elevates PWAT anomalies in different parts of our CWA. Unsurprisingly, the greatest chances for precipitation tend to be over the high terrain. On Tuesday PWATs are near or below normal, which may allow for convection over the high terrain, including dry thunderstorms. On Wednesday shower and thunderstorm coverage looks to increase as some moisture makes its way into our region, particularly north of I-70. However, at this point in time ensembles begin to differ on timing, placement, and magnitude of moisture advection. The ECMWF Ens favors stronger moisture advection later this week than the GFS Ens, which puts maximum PWAT anomalies at above 150% of normal and around 130% of normal, respectively. So, there is a chance for a push of monsoon moisture later this week, but differences in the guidance lowers confidence on this. High temperatures remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the first few days of the long term, but should begin decreasing towards normal as a trough from the Pacific Northwest propagates eastward. Despite dry weather, Red Flag conditions are expected to only be localized at times as winds generally stay below critical fire weather thresholds, with the exception of local areas. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1143 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Mid and upper level cloud cover will increase through the afternoon. There is a chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in our central and southern mountains. The main concerns with showers and thunderstorms are gusty winds and lightning. The southern half of our region may see smoke moving downstream of the ongoing wildfires. Winds will generally be light today, although gusts of up to 25 mph are possible at some sites or around showers and thunderstorms. VFR conditions will continue to prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAA LONG TERM...GF AVIATION...TGJT