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000
FXUS65 KGJT 111002
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
402 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...PASSING CANYONLANDS AIRPORT...GRAND
JUNCTION...RIFLE BY 2AM MDT...AND KEGE AND KASE BY 3AM. ALSO BY
2AM RAIN HAD TURNED OVER TO SNOW AT CRAIG AND MEEKER IN THE COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 52 MPH AT MT WERNER ABOVE STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS...AND GUSTS IN THE 30S RECORDED AT KRIL AND KCNY.
THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORM IS PRETTY MUCH UNFOLDING AS
EXPECTED...BUT THE FRONTAL TIMING HAS POSSIBLY BEEN A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTH AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. BUT A PROJECTION OF SATELLITE
IMAGES...AND MODEL QPF INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL EAST OF A LINE FROM CRAIG TO MONTROSE. ALREADY A LINE OF
CLEARING IS EVIDENT OVER NORTHEAST UT. THAT SAID...THERE CONTINUES
TO BE AN UNSETTLED FLOW UPSTREAM AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. AND
AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTH THEN NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD FOR A TIME...FAVORING THE NORTHEAST SLOPES OF
THE UINTAS...AND POSSIBLY THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. ALSO THE UPPER
WAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY AS THE
500MB TEMPS FALL TO -26C TO -28C THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENT
ADVISORIES STILL LOOK REASONABLE OVER THE NORTHWEST CO MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER SNOW WILL WIND DOWN THERE AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
MONDAY/S...WITH THE BEST COOLING OVER THE NORTH.

BY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER WAVE SPLITS
OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WILL RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA IN A COL AS THE MAIN
TROUGH REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO THE EAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COOL AND FAIR WEATHER DAY AS THE CUT
OFF LOW REMAINS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. A FEW AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SOUTHWEST LOW AND LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATED THAT THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SETTLE A BIT
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN EARLIER RUNS. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
FIELDS WERE DRIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF PAINTED
OVER THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS IN THE EVENING ACCORDING TO THE GFS.
ECMWF AND NAM WERE DRIER.

THE CUTOFF LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD THURSDAY PASSING SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING
WHICH ISN/T UNUSUAL WITH THESE CLOSED SYSTEMS. REGARDLESS...
MOISTURE GENERATED FROM THIS SYSTEM NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY...THOUGH LATEST GFS GENERATED A
SHALLOW SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS PROGGED TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EC HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. BOTH GFS AND EC INDICATED INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
ON SATURDAY WITH SNOW DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY BENEATH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. BY MONDAY HOWEVER...EC
AND GFS SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF PHASE WITH FLAT RIDGE PERSISTING IN
THE GFS SOLUTION WHILE EC REMAINS PROGRESSIVE CARRYING A STRONG
AND COLD STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AT MIDWEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND INDICATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z/WED RESULTING IN FREQUENT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL IMPACT AIRPORTS EAST OF A KCAG-
KEEO-KRIL-KGUC LINE...MAINLY BEFORE 18Z...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SNOWFALL WILL BRING
IFR CIGS AND VSBY AT THE AIRPORTS DEFINED PREVIOUSLY.

AIRPORTS WEST OF THIS LINE...EXCEPT FOR THOSE IN SOUTHEAST UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO...FACE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR THE
LOWER VALLEYS SO EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES WON/T DIP BELOW MVFR.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

SNOW DIMINISHES BY 06Z OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING COZ004-013.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL