Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 241635
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1035 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SCREAMING MESSAGE TODAY IS THE CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM MAX
TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY AS
EVIDENT FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE H7 TEMPERATURES BY
MID AFTERNOON TODAY ABOUT 2 DEGREES C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS.

ALTHOUGH EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
VERSUS TODAY...EXPECT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN MANY AREAS ARE LOWER THAN TODAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD AND THE NEXT
INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL SUNDAY. EVEN SO...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE FORECAST MODELS CHANGING NEARLY EVERY MODEL
RUN. ALL THREE MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MAINLY
OVER NE UT AND NW CO DUE TO A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING THROUGH COMBINED
WITH A STRONG JET ALOFT MOVING IN...THOUGH THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.

SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. AGAIN...EXPECT RELATIVELY LOW TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH.
PRESENTLY...LOOKS LIKE PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF HIGH DENSITY SNOW
TOTALS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 10K FOOT LEVEL BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
...WITH A MIGRATORY UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH
THE MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL JUST BE CLOSE TO NORMAL OR
EVEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRP/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/JRP
AVIATION...NL



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