Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 230504
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING. A
SOLID BANK OF MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM DURANGO TO GRAND JUNCTION TO MEEKER.
WEST OF THAT LINE...FAR MORE SUN IS HEATING THE GROUND AND HELPING
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AS EXPECTED. THE WAVE RELATED CLOUD BANK
WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AND THE CONVECTION IN THE
CLEARER AREA WILL FOLLOW IT...SHIFTING FROM SW TO NE.

WHILE ALL THAT IS HAPPENING...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE PACNW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BY MIDNIGHT ITS COLD
FRONT WILL BE OVER NE UT AND LATE TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT DRAGS ACROSS NW CO. SATURDAY MORNING THE BEST COLD ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE...WITH ADDED SUPPORT FROM THE JET STREAM ALOFT...WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WILL ALSO BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER SAT. BY MIDAFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER NORTHERN CO AND STRETCH BACK TO
THE SW OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE ERODING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...ONLY REMNANT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...A SEASONALLY UNUSUAL TROUGH PATTERN
PERSISTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO MID WEEK. THE 12Z EC
TROUGH PASSAGE TIMING HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE FASTER GFS...
STILL TIMED FOR TUESDAY IN THE GFS...NOW WEDNESDAY IN THE EC.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS LESS THAN ONE INCH
THROUGH TUESDAY...LIMITING SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS... ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER A 60KT JET. STORM MOTION SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE TO THE NE AT 25-30KTS WHICH ALSO LIMIT
SHOWER DURATION BUT THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. VALLEYS TO THE
NE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES COULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL UNTIL TROUGH
PASSAGE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...RISING ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THE MORE USUAL FOUR-CORNERS RIDGE PATTERN RETURNS. THE
RIDGE LOOKS QUITE DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
TAF SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 MAY SEE SOME OF THIS PRECIP
WHILE AREAS SOUTH SHOULD JUST SEE SOME CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z TOMORROW WITH SOME SHRA AND TSRA
EXPECTED FOR MANY TAF SITES. IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER
STORMS DUE TO LOW CIGS/VIS. MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR


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