Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 281654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT SAGGED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ROAN-
TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS. THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER NORTH...5 DEGREES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH. EVEN WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE JET QUADRANT OVER THE NORTH TODAY...THE HIGHER ELEVATION
WINDS ARE EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED BY MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THE DRIER
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
LURKING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DESERT SW. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT GRADIENT.

WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP BACK INTO THE SE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REBOUND OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES BUT COOL
A BIT SOUTH WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ENSEMBLE ANOMALY PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A DOMINANT TROUGH WILL BE
SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LATEST H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAS THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE SEEDING THE DEVELOPING EASTERN
TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE
RIDGE GETS BOOTED WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE HIGH THEN RE-POSITIONS NEAR OR WEST OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 315K TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY WITH THE MONSOON WILL COMBINE WITH A FAVORABLE
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO POOL MOISTURE NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH THURSDAY. BEYOND THIS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO
BECOME SATURATED AND WILL RECIRCULATE MOISTURE WHILE DRAWING IN
NEW MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL START OUT ON
THE WARM AND DRY SIDE BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL BE PLANTED OVER OUR
REGION OF A GOOD PERIOD AND GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE ALL WELL
ABOVE CLIMO. HOWEVER CLOUDS...HUMIDITY AND PCPN WILL IMPACT
READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR NOW DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A TAD
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH AND SEE HOW TRENDS WORK OUT IN LATER
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED 25
MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND
COULD IMPACT LANDING TRAFFIC AT KASE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH



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