Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 231645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1045 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Dry southwest flow aloft will prevail today as a weak ridge will
be over the area. Another low pressure system will continue
depending along the west coast but will make little progress to
the east. On Tuesday the trough will begin filling and moving
inland into NV and ID but the flow over the forecast area will
stay southwesterly and relatively dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

The downstream block will gradually break down by mid week and the
western trough will be allowed to traverse across the Rockies
Thursday. Wednesday will be a mirror of Tuesday with only isolated
afternoon convection anticipated in the afternoon. The passage of
the trough will bring an uptick to the convection Thursday which
will linger into Friday with cooler temperatures aloft aiding in
afternoon instability in northerly flow aloft. The next Pacific
system drops into the west Saturday and southerly flow return to
our CWA going into next weekend. At this time winds seem more of a
concern than precipitation. Temperatures remain below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Weak, quick moving wave is crossing western Colorado late this
morning producing a mid level cloud deck but no precipitation.
Afternoon heating will aid the weak lift with this wave and
produce isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northern
Utah and Colorado mountains. Probabilities will be very low of
one of these storm impacting area TAF sites, so will not be
included in prevailing conditions in the upcoming 18z forecast.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail the next 24 hours. The
main threat to aviation hazards will be gusty ridgetop winds and
possible erratic wind gusts from passing virga or showers.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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