Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 261729
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WAVE MOVING ACROSS UTAH AT A DECENT CLOP THIS MORNING. ALREADY
SEEING A FEW NEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UTAH AND LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MIDDAY. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
CELLS TODAY WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL START THE DAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PACNW VERY SLOWLY STARTS TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THAT HAVE BEEN FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODEST INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO INDICATING A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WHICH...WITH ALL
THE ABOVE...WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE. CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN AROUND NOONTIME WHEN THE FIRST VORT MAX MOVES OVERHEAD FROM
WEST TO EAST THOUGH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS LOOK TO
REACH A MAXIMUM FROM 3PM ONWARDS AS THAT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL
WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREATS. MODELS KEEP PRECIP GOING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SO FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
DROP...AS IT ALWAYS DOES...AFTER SUNSET. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL ONLY HAVE MADE IT AS FAR AS NRN
ID SO EXPECT ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THOUGH
MODELS HINTING AT SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE ONLY
REALLY BIG DIFFERENCE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE GETTING
CLOSE TO NORMAL THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE BEGINNING OF JUNE MAY ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE JUNE...BUT THAT IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY AS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT A "SNAILS PACE" PREVAILS FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH NEEDS ABOUT 2-3 DAYS TO
REACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BEFORE REACHING WYOMING...PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH SENDS PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO COLORADO. THIS HELPS FUEL DIURNAL
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW TRACKS ACROSS SRN WYOMING.

THE DRYING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
DRIER DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN DRY AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS
EACH AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO COLORADO BY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN LESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH EACH PASSING DAY. BY NEXT MONDAY...ANY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE RELEGATED TO THE COLORADO SPINE.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN THEIR SUMMER ASCENT WITH DESERT VALLEYS
REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AFTER
06Z. EXPECT ILS BREAKPOINTS TO BE MET OR EXCEEDED AT ALL SITES AS
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30KTS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JDC



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