Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 180453
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1053 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A WEAK SUB-
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BEGINNING THIS
EVENING.

AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE NEXT SPLITTING
TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THE CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SECOND LOW
WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT MORNING. BY SAT
AFTERNOON MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN
THE SAN JUANS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH THESE WARM
SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE
MORE MILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE BRINGS BETTER CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY/S
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO A TAD COOLER THAN TODAY/S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKLY
CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS AZ AND NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...BUT AN AREA OF 300 MB DIVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SW CO INTO
THE CENTRAL MTNS ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. MODELS TRACK
THIS TROUGH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WED AS AN OPEN WAVE. EXPECT
TO SEE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THE INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE DRAWS UP SOME MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS NOT THAT COLD...SO SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
BE HIGH.

GFS AND ECMWF THEN DIVERGE ON HANDLING THIS TROUGH AS TO MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS THU AND BEGINS ENCOUNTERING THE BLOCKING EFFECTS
OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. BOTH MODELS SHOW
ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THU WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL GO WITH THE
BLENDED MODEL RIGHT NOW WHICH FAVORS DRY WEATHER THU-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS DURING
THE NIGHT WITH LOWERING CLOUD BASES AND PRECIPITATION RESULTING
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. AS MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT KTEX WILL BE IMPACTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL



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