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000
FXUS65 KGJT 101705
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1105 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014

A FINAL OPEN WAVE DIVES SE THROUGH WYOMING BRUSHING NORTHERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
BUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT
BEST AND NO THUNDER. TEMPERATURES STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALLOWING
FOR DEEP MIXING AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CONTINUES FOR SW CO WHERE CRITICAL FUELS ARE ADDED TO THE DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE SW.
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE QUICKLY BEFORE SUNSET.
LIGHTER GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT AND LESS HIGH CLOUD SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SURFACE- BASED INVERSIONS TO FORM AND PRODUCE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY THE TRANSIENT SW RIDGE WORKS OVER THE REGION
SLACKENING THE WINDS ALOFT AND DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014

FRI NGT REMAINS DRY WITH DECREASING WINDS IN EACH OF THE MIDRANGE
MODELS. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN CA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TO
WESTERN AZ SAT MORNING AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM DIVES SE INTO ID DURING THE DAY AND TO NORTHERN UT
AND SW WY BY SUN MORNING. MOISTURE AND WEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA STARTING SAT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SUN
AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REACHES A PEAK SUN AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DECREASE RAPIDLY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OUT MONDAY MORNING.

RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL DOMINATE MONDAY. THEN ON TUE
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND THRU ERN UT AND WRN CO AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND WED. THE STRONGER MAIN TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES PROJECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN DIVIDE AREA WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
MATERIALIZE MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW OR
GRAUPEL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014

FUELS ARE CRITICAL IN SOUTHWEST COLORADO SPECIFICALLY IN ZONE 290
BELOW 9000 FT...AND ZONE 207 BELOW 7500 FEET. RH VALUES WILL AGAIN
FALL INTO 8-15 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FURTHER NORTH WHERE FUELS
ARE NOT CRITICAL. THE LATEST MODELS STILL SUPPORT DEEP AFTERNOON
MIXING PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF SW CO.
A RED FLAG IS VALID 1PM TO 7PM FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...DRY
FUELS...AND HAINES INDEX OF 6. LESS AFTERNOON WIND ON FRIDAY
INDICATES THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE MET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ205-207.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...JOE