Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 270856
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
256 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS
WEEKEND KEEPING DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE 00Z/SAT SOUNDING AT KGJT HELD 0.70
OF AN INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) WHICH ION/T INCONSEQUENTIAL.
THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH DESTABILIZING EFFECTS OF STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW STORMS
MAY MOVE OUT OVER ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH.

IN THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING...EXPECT DIURNAL COOLING WILL
BRING AN END TO MOIST CONVECTION BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. MODELS
SHOWED A SMALL INCREASE IN PW SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
A BIT MORE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK WITH SO EXPECT
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF THE SHORT-LIVED PULSE TYPE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE
VALLEYS WITH LOWER 90S TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE WILL PUT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
JUST ABOUT OVER UTAH AS WE START OFF THE WEEK...SLIGHTLY EAST OF
EARLIER POSITIONS. LITTLE IMPACT TO THE GOING FORECAST THOUGH...
WITH CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION...FOCUSING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ENERGY SKIRTING THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES ON TUESDAY WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE JUST A
BIT AND MAY DELAY CONVECTION UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. GFS HINTING AT A BIT MORE NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH TENDS TO DRIVE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY INTO THE
VALLEYS. FIRST RUN SEEING THIS NEW SOLUTION AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME...SO NOT PLANNING ON INTRODUCING ANY LATE NIGHT POPS
JUST YET. RIDGE CONTS TO DEGRADE AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WORKS
THROUGH WITH THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE WEST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PUTS US MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NWLY FLOW WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES PASSING...AIDING IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. SFC FRONT ALSO TRYING TO WORK SOUTH BY FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH BEST PUSH WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
WE WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CONVECTION FIRING EACH
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
EACH NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY NOCTURNAL EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING. KTEX MAY SEE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE NEARBY STORMS. GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL OTHER AIRPORT AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



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