Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
FXUS65 KGJT 301736
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1036 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016
A very weak short wave ridge will move through the area today
though if you live near the northern mountains, you might not
realize it. Cross sections still show the lower atmosphere
saturated over the Park and Gore ranges and with westerly flow
expected, clouds and light snow showers will continue. Minimal
accumulation is expected but still, there will be some. The rest of
the CWA will see times of sun and clouds as relatively cold
By this evening, a weak short wave trough will drop down from the
northwest. There is minimal support aloft, a 70 kt jet or so,
while PWATS remain near normal so nothing really `too` exciting.
By midnight tonight, some snow showers are likely over the eastern
Uintas and they will overspread to northwest Colorado by daybreak
Thursday. Models have been fairly consistent with precipitation
favoring areas north of I-70 with much lighter snow south. At the
moment, snow looks favored for the Flat Tops, Book Cliffs, and
northern mountains. An advisory or two may be warranted but expect
they`ll be low end, if any are issued at all. After midnight,
upper level support starts digging south and the trough will
follow causing snow to increase south of I-70. More information on
that can be found below.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016
Through Friday evening the above mentioned trough will slowly
carve out a closed low over central Utah which splits off from the
main flow and sinks southward across Arizona. Light shower
activity will spread farther southward as the system continues to
sink toward Arizona on Friday before largely diminishing Friday
night. Model QPF output not all that impressive with this system
so do not anticipate significant accumulations during this period.
A drier northwest flow redevelops Saturday, though moisture
entrained across the north could generate scattered snow showers
over the Elkhead, Park and Flat Top Mountains into Sunday. A pair
of trough systems will bring additional snowfall to the region
Sunday night and Monday, and from late Monday night into Tuesday.
The first will mainly affect areas north of the I-70 Corridor
while the second stronger system should impact almost all of the
region with significant snowfall accumulations possible.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1036 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016
VFR conditions will continue at TAF sites across the area through
the next 24 hours. However, scattered snow showers will continue
off and on over the northern mountains throughout the period.
Expect light winds.