Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 251744
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1144 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE THAT PLAGUED US ALL WEEKEND WILL BE OVER WRN
NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK BUT IT`S NOT DONE WITH US YET. TO START
THINGS OFF...LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ALLOWING FOR MORE
HEATING AND CREATING SOME MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY. ADD TO THIS MIX A
FEW VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY MOIST...ALL INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...NO ONE AREA REALLY FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN GETS A SLIGHT NOD DUE TO OROGRAPHICS. AS
USUAL...MOST PRECIP WILL END BY 9PM THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER WA STATE AND WON`T MOVE TOO MUCH OVER THE
COMING DAYS AS THE JET STREAM HAS DROPPED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. IN
FACT...A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
BUT WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE CLOSED LOW KEEPING
UNSETTLED WX IN THE PICTURE WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. A FEW GOOD THINGS: TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARMUP
AND REACH NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AND ALSO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
BRING A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER WASHINGTON STATE VERY SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTH TO THE NRN GREAT BASIN REGION BY THURSDAY. SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN DOMINATES THE ERN PACIFIC WITH A SECONDARY CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH...WHICH PHASES WITH THE NRN GREAT BASIN
TROUGH BY THURSDAY. CLIMO POPS STAY MORE THAN DOUBLE THE NORM
(USING KGJT AS REFERENCE) THROUGH FRIDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICAL
ASCENT IS NOT A MAJOR PLAYER...BUT SOME UPWARD FORCING FROM
SMALLER SCALE CIRCULATIONS WILL ENHANCE AND ORGANIZE DIURNAL
DRIVEN CONVECTION. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND SMALL HAIL WILL
POSSIBLE NEARLY EACH DAY.

FRIDAY COULD BE A TRANSITION DAY TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE TRENDING LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THIS LEADS TO MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS (SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS TOWARD THE
COLORADO SPINE) WITH HIGHER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING. ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL BE MET OR
EXCEEDED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 30 KTS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW CIGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JDC


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