Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGJT 230529
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

A TEMPORARY PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE MAKING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT RESIDED OVER THE AREA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND REPLACED BY A PACIFIC TROUGH WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SPRING COLD FRONTS. THE BIG CHANGE WILL
BE WITH THE WINDS AS STRONG GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE
JET STREAM WILL BE OVER THE AREA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. THE
GRADIENT AND RESULTING WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...CULMINATING WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT 6 PM AND 2 AM MONDAY
NIGHT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL HELP PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AS THE
FRONTAL BAND MOVES OVERHEAD BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z AND 12Z MONDAY
NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY WILL HELP PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER ZONES 4...10 AND
13 AND ZONE 3 FROM DOUGLAS PASS EAST. BELIEVE THE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE SYSTEM LOOKS
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AS VIEWED FROM
SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

COOLER WEATHER WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
ATTACHED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM PASS THROUGH THE REGION. UNSETTLED
WEATHER...FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL BRING
SOME NEW PRECIPITATION TO OUR CWA AS WELL. THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THIS TIME WILL HELP
WITH THE COOL DOWN. AS THIS RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST
BY THE LATE IN THE WEEK...A NOTICEABLE UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WAY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE SHOULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE IN THIS COOL DOWN AS MODELS SHOW
THE DENDRITIC LAYER GETTING SCOURED OUT. A SECOND WAVE WILL BE ON
THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ARRIVING BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHER ALOFT THE JET SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DURING LEADING TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. UP NORTH MODERATE INSTABILITY
PERSISTS ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AND WILL AID WESTERLY OROGRAPHICS
ALONG WITH UNORGANIZED ASCENT NEAR THE PASSING JET AND THE WAVE.
COLD AIR FILTERS BACK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH COULD BOOST
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN REPEATS
ITSELF WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION REALLY
FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SOLUTIONS SHOW QPF AVERAGING NEAR AN INCH OF NEW LIQUID OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT SNOW OVER THE
PEAKS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO THE MOUNTAIN BASES OVERNIGHT AND
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOONS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT ENTIRELY STRONG
FOR SNOW IMPACTS ATTM. RABBIT EARS AND GORE PASSES ARE LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED BY WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY VAIL PASS AT
TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. AS FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES
IN THE VALLEYS...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH
LOWS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN THE FRUIT GROWING
AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY MONDAY AND BE THE MAJOR IMPACT
FACTOR ON AVIATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z MONDAY NIGHT AND GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 35
MPH AT MANY TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE ISO TSTORM ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND NE UTAH MAINLY FROM THE 00Z
TO 06Z TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY AT TAF SITES (ESP NE
UTAH/NE COLORADO SITES) SO KEPT CRIT OUT OF TAF FORECASTS AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.