Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 060511
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1011 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN EARLY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AROUND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. AT TIMES THESE WAVES WILL RESULT IN
SOME MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHERWISE THE WARMING TREND WILL PICK UP STEAM ON FRIDAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AS WARMER CONDITIONS SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST. TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE QUITE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT`S LOWS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT
DROPPING TO NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START OUT THE WEEKEND AND
LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST WILL
BE ON THE DRY SIDE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A SMALL PIECE OF THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET DOES LOOK TO BREAK OFF AND DROP THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. THE NOSE OF THE JET AND A WEAK WAVE PASSES OVER
WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS CREATES
A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK
TO FORM ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
HOWEVER WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS A FRONT SETTLES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE. NOT IMPRESSED WITH FORCING OR MOISTURE SO POPS STAY
LOW. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF NOAM WILL BE DE-
AMPLIFYING AS THE STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM JET TAKES A MORE DIRECT
ROUTE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LEAVES THE STORM TRACK WELL TO
THE NORTH AND AN EXTENDED DRY AND WARM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS DO WANT TO SWEEP IN SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE
AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE THIS SYSTEM AND IN THE HIGH
LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN IN GENERAL. BELOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS NEAR
DAY 7. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS A WARM UP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE INTO NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES MAINLY OVER THE NORTH...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH+JOE



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