Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 010505
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1105 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG TO KRIL TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND
KPSO HAVE ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
FROM PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC


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