Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 281745
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1145 AM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Rain is being reported at many valley locations this morning with
snow being reported at elevations above 7500 feet. KGJX Doppler
Radar is showing the general direction of this precipitation
moving from south to north. The current satellite water vapor
image is showing the parent storm centered over Arizona at this
hour placing the CWA in relatively warm moist southerly flow.

The 0000Z GFS20 and 0600Z NAM12 have initialized well with this
storm system and slide it east across Arizona into New Mexico,
maintaining this moist southerly flow over our CWA through this
afternoon/evening. For the most part precipitation should end for
a majority of the CWA by late this evening. However, snow will
continue in the central mountains of Colorado through roughly
midnight. Over roughly the next 24 hours anywhere from 6 to 12
inches of snow is anticipated to fall above 8,000 feet elevation.
Therefore, a winter weather advisory is in place to account for
this snow. For more information please see the Winter Weather
Advisory at www.weather.gov/gjt or at DENWSWGJT.

High pressure will quickly begin to build over the area Wednesday
as the storm system spills out into the Great Plains. For the most
part dry weather is expected Wednesday with clearing skies and a
slight warming trend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The 0000Z ECMWF and GFS20 have initialized well with the current
synoptic weather pattern and remain in good agreement through
Saturday. Both models continue to advertise a progressive weather
pattern with periods of inclement weather through early next
week.

As for Wednesday night through Thursday expect dry weather with a
continued warming trend ahead of the next storm system which
arrives Thursday evening. This storm system arrives from the north
and has plenty of cold air associated with it. Snow levels with
this storm system will fall to between 6500 and 7500 feet by
Friday morning as the center of the storm passes over the Forecast
area. At this point is appears that the storm will pass southeast
into Texas on Sunday, but the forecast model solutions begin to
diverge during the Sunday/Monday time period leading to low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Conditions will continue to be highly variable across the region
through early tonight as an upper level trough axis just about
over the Western Slope migrates slowly eastward. Under band of mid
level frontogenesis stretching from northwest Colorado toward
Canyonlands, expect persistent rain/snow and local IFR conditions.
This will slowly shift east and should bring snow or rain/snow mix
back to KASE for a bulk of the afternoon into tonight. There is
also enough mid level instability to prodcue isolated thunder
across the southern half, but do not have enough confidence on
location to mention in any TAF sites at this time. Precipitation
coverage will decrease 00z-06z west to east followed by improving
ceiling/vis. Winds are the other challenge this period with
northwest to northeast winds rather gusty this afternoon through
at least 04z for many of the valley sites.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Wednesday for COZ009-010-
     012-013-018-019.

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ023-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Larry
LONG TERM...Larry
AVIATION...BM



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