Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 292303

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Generally dry and warm on this Memorial Day as high pressure
remains overhead with some spotty showers popping up over the
northern mountains. As we saw yesterday, the primary threats with
stronger showers will be gusty winds and any additional storms
that do develop over the next few hours should dissipate by

On Tuesday, southerly flow will increase in the midlevels which
will advect moisture north. This will allow another round of
diurnal showers to fire off, generally over the Colorado
mountains, with coverage being more scattered as a result of
available moisture. The next Pacific trough will begin to dig
inland Tuesday evening which will shift the ridge of high pressure
east and allow additional moisture to stream into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Moisture will remain above normal for Wednesday and Thursday with
the biggest push occurring Wednesday night when precipitable water
values increase to around 0.70 inches in the southern mountains.
As has been the case the past several days the GFS remains the
wetter solution for our forecast area compared to the Euro with
both models continuing to disagree on the specifics of the
transition from an unsettled end of the week to a drier weekend.
Regardless, diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be anticipated
through Friday with orographic convection being favored. High
pressure begins to build in from the west as early as Saturday
which would see the return of drier and warmer conditions.

Speaking of temperatures, highs and lows will only fluctuate
slightly through the end of the week as a result of variable
cloudiness and any precipitation that does occur. Temperatures
will climb for Saturday and Sunday in response to high pressure.
Still, temperatures throughout the extended period will be above
seasonal which pairs nicely with the Climate Prediction Center`s
6 to 10 day outlook which shows odds favoring above normal
temperatures for eastern Utah and western Colorado.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 503 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

High based showers along with a handful of weak thunderstorms will
continue over the higher terrain of northeast Utah and western
Colorado through 03Z. This activity may bring unpredictable
outflow wind gusts to 25 MPH to KEGE, KASE, and KTEX but rain is
unlikely. Clouds diminish overnight and drainage winds begin.
Clouds, showers, and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
after 18Z/Tuesday, but will again be anchored to higher terrain
and pose little threat to TAF sites.






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