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000
FXUS63 KGLD 231932
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
132 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD SHOULD END BEFORE 20Z AS AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WITH COOLER...MORE STABLE
AIR IN PLACE DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AT EITHER SITE AND EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL.
SMALL THREAT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AT MCK TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JRM