National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KGLD 050910
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

TODAY-TONIGHT...CIRRUS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES IN TONIGHT BRINGING ONLY AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS. HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15 ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER WITH MID TEENS ELSEWHERE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS
COLD GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE
READINGS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW ZERO. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS TONIGHT -7F ACROSS THE
EAST AND -10F TO -15F WEST. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO COUNTIES POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY WITH ANOTHER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. TOUGH
CALL ON PRECIP CHANCES. AT VARIOUS STAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD BOTH
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARE PRESENT WHILE AT OTHERS ONE BUT NOT
BOTH ARE PRESENT. DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COLDER THEN
IDEAL BUT GIVEN SFC TEMPS EXPECTED SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW CANT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF HELP FROM UPPER
JET FRIDAY NIGHT BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO COMMIT TO KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. IN FACT...ITS SOMEWHAT COMMON FOR
MODELS TO OVERDUE MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 LAYER IN ARCTIC
AIRMASSES...IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN THAT LEADS TO MORE CONFIDENCE
IN A DRY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES WITH
LOWS ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF
-15F TO -20F.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASED POPS A BIT AS MODELS SHOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY...SHIFTING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN APPEARS
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT FURTHER EAST THEN PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO HAVE SHIFTING THINGS AS A RESULT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. WIND CHILL HIGHLITES NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT WILL FINALLY RELENT TOWARDS THE VERY END
OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN ADVISORY RANGE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE IN SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE
FRESH SNOW PACK COMBINED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING COULD TANK TO
NEAR 10 BELOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AND
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGLD THROUGH 00Z WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. AFTER 00Z CIGS DECREASE AND MAY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS
IN THE 03Z-12Z TIMEFRAME AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE N/NW NEAR 10KTS THIS
MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5KTS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT
WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST AROUND 5KTS.

FOR KMCK SIMILAR SCENARIO AS KGLD BUT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DONT
ARRIVE TIL 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. WIND FORECAST SIMILAR TO KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>003-013-014-027.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99