Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 011130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
430 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

GONG INTO MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST...AND
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGION. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL STEADY THRU
MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL SYSTEM OVER ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A
NUDGE FROM UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE WEST
COASTLINE. THIS SHIFT THRU THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY OVER
ROCKIES TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP...TAPERING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARDS E/SE AREAS. WARM SOUTHERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THRU
THE DAY SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE A BIT OF -RW MIXING IN AS HIGHS
WILL STRETCH NEAR THE 40F MARK.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WX FEATURES
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE AND MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR AND FINALLY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
DOES DIFFER AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT POPS AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP
CWA WILL SEE...IN TANDEM WITH ARCTIC FROPA. CHANCE POPS IS WHAT
THE CWA WILL SEE AT THIS TIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACCUM. CHANCE FOR SYSTEM TO FALL APART WITH PASSAGE AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE QUICKER TO ARRIVE INTO AREA...FOREGOING ANY
MOISTURE FEED WITH LOW PASSAGE. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AS SPEED OF FROPA IS KEY...BUT AREA SHOULD SEE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AREA STAYS IN WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF UPCOMING FROPA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AIR TO WORK OVER AREA...DROPPING LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST
WITH MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER TREND IN GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN
TO SHIFT THIS SOUTH OF THE CWA EVEN QUICKER. I DECIDED TO KEEP
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WED MORNING HOURS...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT MAINLY FLURRIES. FRIGID AIR
MASS RETURN HOWEVER AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSING IN
ON ADVISORY CRITERIA WED MORNING AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THEY HAVE MODERATED THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CONFLUENT FLOW BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PATTERN OVER OUR CWA ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME
IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK MAINLY THURSDAY (IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
CWA )...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF WAA I THINK THIS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THRU 16Z TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR KMCK WITH SCT025 BKN-
OVC050. KGLD WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS OVC025...WITH 6SM -SHSN. FROM
16Z ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-100 AND -SHSN AFT 07Z
MONDAY. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS THRU 16Z THEN NORTH
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS BY 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN


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