Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 270539
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH



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