949
FXUS63 KGLD 281126
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
526 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms are possible during the afternoon and
  evening hours today. Dry lightning may lead to an increased
  fire risk on Saturday.

- Potentially severe storms are expected on Sunday, mainly in
  the late afternoon and evening hours.

- Storm chances continue into the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Current observations show showers and storms lingering in
Northwestern Kansas. They showers and storms could continue until
near sunrise with elevated instability and moisture lingering in the
area. Storms have generally been sub-severe with hail up to half
inch in size and wind gusts generally around or below 50 mph. Heavy
rain has also been occurring with these showers. As we near sunrise,
most of the outflow boundaries and elevated instability should be
exiting the area and allowing it all to come to an end.

For the daytime hours, a slightly warmer day is forecast as we get
some slight ridging in the upper flow. Temperatures are forecast to
warm to around 100 degrees underneath mostly sunny skies. Winds are
forecast to remain from the south around 10 to 15 mph. Winds
could begin to gust to 20-30 mph as the lower levels mix out
during the afternoon hours.

During the evening and overnight hours, there is another chance for
showers and storms, albeit a smaller chance. With the ridging that
is forecast to occur during the day, upper subsidence is forecast to
be over the area. A shortwave is still expected to fire up storms in
East-Central Colorado and move it towards the area. However, a more
stable environment is forecast which should cause the storms to fall
apart as they try advancing through the area. The one thing that
could be worth watching is if a more organized line forms in
Nebraska. If a line forms and the outflow pushes south like some
guidance is suggesting, there could be another round of storms after
midnight for the eastern half of the area. Severe storms are
possible, but would be more likely in the form of wind gusts up to
70 mph with the second round (if it moves through). Otherwise, skies
should slowly clear with lows generally in the 60s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A weak shortwave ridge axis will lead to hotter and drier
conditions on Saturday across the area with daytime highs
running a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the mid to upper
90s. Although moisture will be very limited on Saturday, enough
instability should be in place to support isolated weak
thunderstorm activity along the Kansas/Colorado border. These
storms will not have much rainfall associated with them, but
they will have the potential to produce some dry lightning
strikes. With winds gusting over 25 mph from the south in the
afternoon hours, there could be some increased fire concerns due
to the dry lightning strike threat. This threat will quickly
end after sunset as temperatures start to cool off and the weak
storms come to an end.

The overall pattern across the country will become more
amplified on Sunday with a strong longwave ridge building over
the western third of the nation. A fairly decent front will
slide through the area on Sunday, and this will bring another
round of thunderstorms back to the area. Thunderstorm coverage
will be highest this day due to the increased forcing along the
front, and a few of the storms will likely turn severe with
damaging wind gusts and hail being the primary threat.
Temperatures will be near average in Nebraska and Colorado, but
should still be in the mid 90s south of I-70 as the front is not
expected to move through this portion of the forecast area
until the evening hours.

Deep layer northwest flow aloft and a north to northeast flow
in the low levels on Monday and Tuesday will keep temperatures
closer to average in the mid to upper 80s during the day and the
upper 50s and lower 60s at night. The easterly flow could allow
for some moisture pooling in place, but a dry line will also
develop each day in eastern Colorado. Just enough forcing should
be in place along the dry line to induce some isolated storms
in the late afternoon and early evening hours on both Monday and
Tuesday.

Wednesday should be the driest day of the week as deep layer
ridging passes directly over the region. This will allow for
ample subsidence and a strong capping inversion aloft, and this
should limit convective potential across the area. At most, a
very isolated and short-lived shower or storm could pop up along
the dry line in Colorado during the late afternoon hours.
Temperatures will also begin to warm beneath the ridge with
highs climbing back into the low to mid 90s.

The ridging will being to push to the east on Thursday and
Friday. A southwesterly flow regime will take hold aloft and
winds in the low levels will shift back to the south and
southeast. Weak lee troughing will support a stronger dry line
forming each day, and this will lead to better convective
coverage over the western third of the forecast area in the late
afternoon and evening hours each day. Temperatures will be near
or slightly above average each day, but nothing too extreme for
this time of year with readings generally remaining in the low
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions and southerly winds are expected through
majority of the TAF period. We are expecting a line of
thunderstorms to move through the region this afternoon and
evening, however coverage, timing, and placement of the storms
have low confidence. This lower confidence is why I`ve opted
from PROB30 groups for the storms and potential variable, gusty
winds. There is a 10% chance of fog or stratus to form around
12Z tomorrow for both TAF sites, so keep an eye on future
updates.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CA