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000
FXUS63 KGLD 192343
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
543 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...hot and very dry
conditions ensue for the entire area as a dry line/trough currently
sits over the western half of the CWA. Temperatures are ranging
mainly in the 90s for most locales...with a few spots over western
portions of NE CO in the 80s. Winds are from the SSW 10-15
mph...gusting to 25 to 30 mph at times. RH readings as a result of
the hot temps and low dewpts are ranging in the single numbers and
teens west...into the upper teens and 20s east.

For the rest of the afternoon on into the evening hours...with 2-3
more hours of good sunshine left...expect more areas east to reach
lower towards Red Flag criteria before conditions abate as sunset is
reached. Expecting thin veil of high clouds to persist as well
before shifting east later tonight. The large T/Td spread at sunset
is going to allow for a large drop in temps...combined with a shift
to the north for the winds as a result of the trough moving
east...will be looking for overnight lows to drop well into the mid
and upper 40s for much of the western CWA...and a 50-55F range for
locales along and east of Highway 83. Going into Wednesday...region
will see a nice cooler and dry day with NNE flow working thru the
area. Looking for high to range from the mid 70s west up the 80F
mark for those locales east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Dry weather is anticipated to start off the long term period,
followed by wet conditions with a slow moving weather system Friday
through at least the weekend.

On Wednesday night, surface high pressure moves east of the area
turning winds southerly. The pressure gradient tightens on Thursday
ahead of a cold front and winds pick up as a lee trough develops
near the High Plains. The dry air mass in place combined with these
gusty winds suggest possible critical fire weather conditions
generally along and west of Highway 27. Meanwhile, an upper low
crosses south central Canada with a large upper trough over the
western CONUS.

An upper wave ejects from the western trough on Friday as a cold
front slowly approaches the area. This set up will aid in the
development of storms, particularly along the surface trough near
the Colorado border. Moisture begins to advect into the region. With
increasing shear and raised instability, am anticipating a few
strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday. Similar parameters in
place lead to the potential for another round of strong to severe on
Saturday.

The upper trough over the western portion of the country is slow to
progress east during the weekend, keeping the forecast wet. The cold
front associated with the system becomes nearly stationary across
our area and will be an initiation point for convection. This slow
moving system, PWATs in the 1 to 1.5 inch range, and storm motions
parallel to the frontal boundary (which may generate training
thunderstorms) lead to a concern for heavy rainfall and flashing
flooding this weekend. The threats with this system will be
monitored in the coming days. Precipitation chances continue early
next week but decrease as the upper trough presses east and sends
some disturbances onto the High Plains.

High temperatures peak near 90 degrees on Thursday before steadily
cooling through the rest of the period (into the 60s across the area
on Monday). Lows fall from the 50s and 60s Thursday night to the 40s
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period VFR conditions  are
expected to prevail. Main concern for aviators tonight will be
strong crosswinds up to 40 knots at the Goodland and McCook
terminals, associated with a frontal passage overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Expecting Red Flag conditions to persist/push east over the next
few hours until sunset approaches.

Low RH and breezy conditions may develop again on Thursday
afternoon, and elevated to critical fire weather conditions may
once again be an issue. Current forecast is marginal and there is
still some time to fine tune details before considering fire
weather highlights for that period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...EV
FIRE WEATHER...JN