Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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704
FXUS63 KGLD 070322
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BASED
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY TWEAK TEMPS A BIT IF THE RATE OF
DECREASE IS SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEIL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  HOWEVER THE COOLING EFFECT OF
THE SNOWFIELD WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND THUS THE
WIND STRENGTH DURING THE DAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMER VALUES TO THE
WEST IN THE WARMER AIR.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS DRY LAMINAR
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE SNOWFIELD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST NOT SURE
HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW AROUND 10KTS TO WNW BY 05Z
SUNDAY. BY 09Z SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT AGAIN TO NNW 15-30KTS...
STRONGEST AFT 17Z SUNDAY. LLWS 05Z-09Z FOR BOTH SITES NW 35KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



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