Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 200839
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
239 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 750 J/KG. AS
INHIBITION INCREASES THIS MORNING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE
AND END. WSR-88D CURRENTLY INDICATES LIGHT RAIN ACROSS YUMA AND
KIT CARSON COUNTIES...BUT MESONET STATIONS HAVE NOT REPORTED
ANYTHING MEASURABLE. MAY PUT IN SOME EARLY MORNING SPRINKLES IN
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE
A LAST MINUTE DECISION. THROUGH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
AROUND 5 DEGREES...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO KEEPING THE LOW LAYERS MIXED...SO
WILL REMOVE EARLY MORNING FOG.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING...AND SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z. AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE FRONT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
SHEAR. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH WITH FRONT THIS EVENING...THOUGH
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE EAST UPSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. 500 MB RIDGE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER PLACING THE AREA IN
SUBSIDENCE. HAVE DOWNPLAYED CONVECTIVE CHANCES MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THEN MOVE EAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

500 MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. WEAK VORTICITY LOBE WILL
SWING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY 18Z. ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN
LOW/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY
MONDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED
REASONABLY WELL WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS TROUGH ALTHOUGH
GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FORCING
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS...DEEPEST
MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY...SHOULD COMBINE TO
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BEING HIGHEST ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERS IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY...AFTER WHICH LEE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS AND MID LEVELS HEIGHTS RISE. IN THIS SCENARIO TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AMONG DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW. THERE HAS BEEN
A TREND TOWARD A RATHER COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE
BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF STRONG
WEST COAST TROUGH BY THURSDAY. GFS NOW SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND RETROGRADING WESTWARD BACK INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. GFS SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AS IT IS DISPLACED CONSIDERABLY FROM THE GEFS MEAN
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THIS AS
WELL BUT EVOLVES IT DIFFERENTLY AND HAS THE LOCATION SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES OFF COMPARED WITH THE GFS. NEEDLESS TO SAY
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS LATE IN THE WEEK...AT LEAST WITH
POPS. THE CONSISTENCY/CONSENSUS BLEND IS NOT FAR FROM CLIMO POP SO
ACCEPTED IT WITH NO CHANGES ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO OF THE HODGEPODGE
OF MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS WOULD NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS LATE
IN THE EXTENDED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT COLD/WARM ADVECTION IN ANY
OF THE SCENARIO DEPICTED SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
KGLD IN ADVANCE OF BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH...THERE WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG AND A SCT LOW DECK. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO NORTH AND GRADUALLY TO THE EAST BY LATE IN AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF
KGLD.

AT KMCK...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COULD GET
CLOSE TO THE SITE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. SO A VCTS WAS PUT IN DURING
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND SHIFTING WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...BULLER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.