Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 021755
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1055 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 257 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016
Main forecast concern will be chance of precipitation tonight.
Satellite showing an amplified and active flow from the Pacific into
North America. Broad trough encompasses much of the country as a
complex upper trough begins to deepen and split over the western
portion of the country.
Models started out well at mid levels with the Gfs, Ecmwf, and
Canadian doing a little better. Models started out fine on the low
level thermal field but were a little too cold. Overall the Gfs,
Canadian, Ecmwf, and Sref were starting out the best.
Today/tonight...cloud cover has been slower to increase. Now it
looks like the thickest cloud cover will not occur until the
afternoon. As a result of the slower arrival, overnight temperatures
have dropped more than previously expected. All in all the far
eastern section should be able to warm up the longest. Made slight
adjustments based on the latest data.
For tonight the newer data is slower and further south with the lift
and deeper moisture. Theta-e lapse rates are not very good again.
Area is also on the wrong side of the jet. Also the mid level
lift/frontogenesis is very organized. I went ahead pulled the pops
further south with the highest pops in the extreme south and also
having the highest pops after midnight. It only looks .01 or .02 of
qpf with the phase being all snow.
Saturday/Saturday night...With the slower arrival of tonights
precipitation, the precipitation is expected to linger into the
morning with very light amounts. Due to cloud cover and some cold
air advection, temperatures will be cooler than todays. What the
blend gave me looks reasonable. The nighttime forecast also looks in
good shape and did not change.
Sunday/Sunday night...the next question is how much do we warm up.
Should be plenty of sun and deep/dry air mass in westerly flow aloft.
Surface winds will be southwest to west and then shift toward the
south in the afternoon as the lee trough starts developing. High
temperatures look to range from the middle 40s to the lower 50s
which will feel very warm compared to what is coming in.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016
A winter weather system is set to impact the CWA Monday night
through Wednesday morning. Current models depict the system as an
upper low/arctic front combo. The GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement
during the first 12 hours of the extended however have discrepancies
on timing/strength of snowfall potential the rest of the period. The
one thing that is confident is the profound shift in the
temperatures impact during the middle of the week. Expect a sharp
drop due to the passage of the arctic front. Before the front highs
will range in the 40s on Monday then reach only the 20s on Tuesday
and Wednesday. The arrival of the surface ridge on Thursday will
allow for a slight rebound into the 30s. Overnight lows during the
time will fall into the low teens and single digits above zero. Add
the expected windy conditions to these already low temperatures will
produce WIND CHILL READINGS as low as -5 to -10 below in some local
areas tues/wed night.
As of now the potential of snowfall looks to be at 1-3 inches...
with the higher amounts mainly north of I-70. However... with the
model discrepancies on tracking and timing past Tuesday these
numbers could be adjusted significantly as we get closer to the
Summary... snowfall potential is uncertain at this time... while the
confidence on the sharp drop in overall temperatures is high.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1036 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016
Conditions at MCK and GLD will start out VFR and remain that way
through about 10Z. After that time it appears low level moisture
being advected in the return flow from the southern high plains
into the central high plains region will produce lower cloud
heights and possible lowering of visibilities with fog.
At 10Z GLD will transition to MVFR and then IFR after 12Z mainly
due to increasing cloud cover and lowering ceilings. There will
also likely be fog after 12Z that continues to near the end of the
TAF period. Beyond 18Z, expect ceilings and visibilities to
At MCK by 12Z, increasing cloud cover and lowering ceilings should
produce MVFR conditions and occasionally IFR conditions with
visibilities also possibly going to 3 miles or below. Conditions
will be slower to improve at MCK.