Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221916

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
116 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Latest upper air analysis depicts a closed low over Eastern Kansas.
Behind the closed low a ridge was building in from the northwest.
Due to the wet ground conditions and cool temperatures, patchy fog
has been reported at a couple sites.

Today patchy fog may develop along and west of Highway 27 where the
light surface winds converge.  Any fog that develops will end by mid
morning.  Visibility in the fog may briefly fall to a half mile or
mile.  Otherwise the clouds will gradually clear as drier air and a
surface high move over the forecast area.  The surface high will
move through, causing the wind to be light.  Behind the surface high
temperatures will warm.  Highs will be warmer than yesterday due to
WAA behind the surface high.

Tonight the light wind, dew points around 30 degrees, and clear sky
will provide good conditions for radiational cooling.  With lows in
the 30s, many locations may have frost develop.  Am expecting frost
to be the most likely for Gove, Logan, Wichita, Greeley, and Thomas
counties where winds will be lightest and temperatures the coolest.
A frost advisory may be needed for these counties as a result. After
collaborating with southern neighbor will hold off issuing an
advisory at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A progressive pattern will be in place across the CONUS this
period. Embedded shortwave troughs will bring occasional chances
for showers, with a few pockets of weak instability resulting in
mentions of isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be above
normal Sunday and much above normal Monday, then will be below
normal the remainder of the period. For the late week system,
cooling temperatures aloft will drop wet bulb zero heights low
enough for a mention of snow in northeast Colorado and generally
west of Highway 25 in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska, but
little if any accumulation is expected at this time. There is the
potential for the sum total of the upcoming week`s precipitation
to be 1 to 2 inches, with highest amounts generally north of
Interstate 70, which would probably close the book on drought
development any time soon.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Northerly
winds less than 10kt will shift to the south and increase late
tonight as high pressure slides south of both terminals. Stronger
winds are expected to develop by mid morning Sunday as low
pressure deepens over eastern Colorado. South winds may gust
25-30kt at both terminals late Sunday morning into Sunday




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