Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 210000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
500 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

Issued at 500 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

Red Flag Warning allowed to expire on time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 5PM MST and 6PM CST
for Dundy, Yuma, and Cheyenne county in Kansas due to very dry and
breezy conditions that are producing critical fire weather

Gusty northwest winds are moving out of southeast Wyoming across
northeast Colorado and into southwest Nebraska and northwest
Kansas this afternoon behind a prefrontal surface trough that is
moving across the region this afternoon. With the dry downslope
winds, dewpoints in the single digits are being noted with single
digit RH values. A cold front is expected to move across the
region overnight with a return to near normal temperatures this
time of year on Tuesday. Highs will be nearly 25 degrees cooler
than today, but will still be near or a few degrees above average
with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s and lows tonight in the
30s. Models were hinting at the possibility of light precipitation
over fare eastern Colorado and southern Nebraska as the front
comes through. Have, however, kept things dry as confidence in any
precipitation is low with poor QPF correlation between models and
the lowest few thousand feet of the column near the surface
remain dry with 50% or less RH.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

No major weather concerns are expected this period. Return flow
gets underway Tuesday night behind the front, and gave some
thought to adding patchy fog with the increasing moisture.
However, SREF probabilities are low and surface wind direction
unfavorable from the southwest to west by Wednesday morning, so
left it out. Otherwise, upper ridge will amplify northward across
the Rockies and be the dominant feature through the period.
Temperatures will be much above normal through the end of the
week. One shortwave trough does temporarily weaken the ridge
Thursday night and Friday, but the trough will track across the
northern plains so strongest lift will stay north and no
precipitation is expected. The accompanying cold front will drop
temperatures for Saturday back to near normal, then gradually
warming to slightly above normal next Sunday and Monday as the
ridge rebuilds.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. A
light northwest wind at taf issuance will continue through the
night before increasing above 12kts around 12z-13z Tuesday. As a
cold front moves through north winds increase with gusts 25 to
30kts expected from 14z-20z. After 21z winds subside below 12kts
from the north. High clouds at taf issuance will lower to about
4K-5K feet by mid to late morning Tuesday behind the front.




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