Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 252359
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE
WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA FOR THE EARLY EVENING. THOUGHT ABOUT GOING
HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT DUE TO HOW SOLID THE LINE LOOKS BUT PAST
SIMILAR SCENARIOS HAVE RESULTED IN THE LINE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.  DESPITE SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS
SUGGESTING THE LINE WILL LAST PAST SUNSET...AM DOUBTFUL BASED ON
HOW STABLE SOUNDINGS LOOK AFTER SUNSET SO WILL NO GO HIGHER THAN
THE ISOLATED MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD
RIDGE STILL IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH A PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK VORTICITY
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME WEAK REFLECTION OF THIS EXTENDING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...WITH FAVORABLE JULY
SOLAR ANGLE SUPPORTING GOOD RADIATIONAL WARMING THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGHS HAVE STILL REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(A LITTLE COOLER TOWARDS THE NW).

STALLED FRONT IN THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
COLORADO SHOULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS (WHICH HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT RANGE). HIGH LCL/LFC OVER OUR CWA SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELEVATED AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
DCAPE WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS. IF UPDRAFTS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH...MAYBE LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM LOW-MID LEVELS ABOVE
SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION CONDITIONS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A WIND
THREAT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OVER
CWA...HOWEVER DESPITE GOOD SURFACE-BL MOISTURE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
AIR MASS ITSELF IS FAIRLY DRY AND COVERAGE IS A QUESTION. BEST
FORCING WOULD ACTUALLY BE LATER IN THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE (ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM POSSIBLE MCS IN THE NORTH) MOVES INTO THE
CWA. AT THIS POINT I WAS COMFORTABLE KEEPING COVERAGE ISOLATED AND
DELAYED EXIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WESTERN
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE BEFORE SUNSET.

DEEPENING ON EVOLUTION OF OUTFLOW (AS INDICATED BY NAM) OR WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS HEIGHTS
AND PATTERN ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AND A
RECOVERY OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. I KEPT TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE 90S (AROUND 100F IN THE EAST). HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTH...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EARLIER
INITIATION OVER OUR CWA...WITH FLOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE SUN-MON
TIME FRAME...WHICH THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DROPS DOWN SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EARLY ON
WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT WHEN THE EC/GFS
BOTH GENERATE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WHICH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
THE FLOW.

THE PRESENCE OF A CANADIAN AIR MASS WHICH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE WEEK
WILL PROVIDE RELIEF FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 22-25C RANGE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TRANSLATES TO LOW-MID 80S FOR HIGHS. THE
COOLEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO SLOWLY
MOVING WEST. NEAR TERM MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS
WILL MAKE IT EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS LOOK FAIRLY STABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...SO AM WONDERING HOW FAR EAST
THE CURRENT LINE WILL MOVE...SPECIFICALLY FOR KGLD. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP T-STORM MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR KGLD. HOWEVER IF
STORMS DO MOVE NEAR THE SITE WILL MOST LIKELY BE DURING THE 3-4Z
TIME FRAME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JTL





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