Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 272130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES.
BEST MID LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
09Z-15Z...AND HAVE INDICATED HIGHER POPS DURING THAT TIME. THOUGH
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...LOW TO MID
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS DECENT. WENT WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HILL CITY KANSAS TO CHEYENNE WELLS COLORADO
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH. ANALOGS SUPPORT THIS
FORECAST...AND WOULD ACTUALLY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES DO NOT SUPPORT HIGH AMOUNTS UNTIL
LATER IN THE FORECAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS VALUES AROUND 10
BELOW ZERO. MAY BRIEFLY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THAT...BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHORT
DURATION. THE COLD WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF
850-500MB MOISTURE FOR THE POP/WX/QPF PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SKIRTING THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/4 OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM EDGES INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF THE
AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO THE AREA BEFORE LIFTING AWAY
MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE 20S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER...WARMEST FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY. THE MCCOOK TO HILL CITY
AREA MAY BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER BASED ON PAST 3 DAYS OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS. FOR
MONDAY WARMER AIR AT 850MB TRIES TO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
PER GFS/ECMWF. THE NAM AND SREF HOLD IT FURTHER WEST. BLENDING THE
TWO AND AVERAGING THE BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS
PRODUCES HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH WINDS WITH IT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. POST FRONTAL 850-500MB MOISTURE FAVOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT LOW 20S TO LOW 30S
(NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST). HIGHS TUESDAY TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON
FRONTS ARRIVAL. GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT THUS LOWER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH IS ABOUT 6 HOUR SLOWER.
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES WOULD TEND TO THINK GFS
WOULD VERIFY BEST. WILL START THINGS OFF WITH HIGHS UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO MID/UPPER 40S TRIBUNE TO LEOTI. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE
AREA. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TRY TO DEPICT THE TREND IN THE GRIDS FOR
THIS ONCE SOME AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS DEVELOPS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

WEDNESDAY...BASE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BY
18Z OR SO PUSHING ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUN EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY. A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER
20S EAST OF THE BORDER. COULD SEE READINGS CLOSER TO 30 FROM MCCOOK
TO HILL CITY IF 850MB TRENDS VERIFY AND WOULD SUPPORT MEX GUIDANCE.
LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...MAYBE LOW TEENS FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE AND POINTS SOUTH.

THURSDAY...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT BEST OTHERWISE A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 40S. HAVE A FEELING THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE
THAT GAVE US MID 30S TO LOW 40S IS UNDERDONE BASED ON 850MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD SUPPORT READINGS A FEW/SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S LOOKS OK.

FRIDAY...LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT KGLD...AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED
AT KMCK...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS JUST TO THE WEST. BASED ON SHORT
RANGE MODELS...ENDED THE SNOW AT KGLD/KMCK AFTER 21Z. SNOW WILL
REDEVELOP AFTER 09Z WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR
DUE CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...THEN DROPPING TO IFR
LATER TONIGHT DUE TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MENTZER


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