Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280136
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
736 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

STORMS HAVE FAILED TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM A FEW SHORT LIVED CELLS
OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. SPC MESOANLYSIS SHOWS THE ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUING TO STABILIZE. WITH SURFACE HEATING ENDING AND LIFT FROM
THE MULTIPLE 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA ALSO DECLINING...BELIEVE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A CHANCE
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR DID NOTICE A LINE OF
STORMS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. IF THIS LINE EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT MAY MOVE ACROSS
THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES MID TO LATE EVENING. IN ADDITION THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE DURING THE EVENING SO
DESPITE LOWERING RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE EVENING...WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH. OVERNIGHT DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
EVENING IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES ON
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE DRIER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
LATER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...IT IS PRESENTLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A DAY
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE HIGH AS WITH MORE RECENT DAYS.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY ANCHORED
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SLIDING WEST AND NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES RIGHT NOW...KICKS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WITH A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED.

INITIALLY...PLEASANT WEATHER IS FORECAST IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE FORECAST TOMORROW. BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BUT EVEN MORE LIKELY IS THE END OF HUMID
CONDITIONS. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON MUCH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOW 50S
ARE OBSERVED. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S ARE FORECAST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WARMING TREND
BEGINS THURSDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE STALLED COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH AND WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AND LOWERED CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR
NORTH AS I-70 WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS MOISTURE RETURNS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THERMODYNAMIC AND WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE
SIMILAR TO RECENT SEVERE EVENTS SO WOULD EXPECT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1.20" SO CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING
THE WIND DIRECTION AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
DURING THE EVENING THEN LIGHTEN SOME FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH THE FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK DURING THE MORNING THEN GRADUALLY
DECLINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

DID CONSIDER HAVING A VCTS GROUP FOR KGLD DUE TO A THUNDER STORM
TRACKING TOWARD THE SITE ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THE STORM OF INTEREST HAS DIED. SINCE THIS
IS THE BEST TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP...AM QUESTIONING IF THERE
WILL BE ANY STORMS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL


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