Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 242325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
525 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The overall pattern that has kept the Central High Plains region
wet over the weekend will begin to shift eastward by late Monday
as the upper low over the Great Basin begins to lift out across
the Rockies and into the northern high plains. This will push the
frontal boundary that had stagnated over the forecast area east of
the region on Monday, taking the area of heaviest rainfall with
it. Until the widespread area of rain moves further east, the
potential remains for locations mainly in closer proximity to the
front, to experience moderate to heavy rain showers that could
train over the same locations and produce localized flash
flooding. High temperatures on Monday should remain in the 50s
while the overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 40s to
middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at
156 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Precipitation chances will continue during the beginning part of the
extended period as the low pressure system that has been impacting
the region through the weekend moves northeast out of the CWA. Rain
showers are only expected during this time (Monday night into early
Tuesday morning). Once that low moves out of the region the CWA is
expected to see a dry period through the majority of the remaining
extended period. This is due to zonal and northwest upper level flow
dominating the region and preventing moisture from moving up into
the area. One model is showing a more progressive pattern with
bringing precipitation to the region on Thursday but the other ones
are dry. So PoPs were decreased to accommodate the other models but
there are still slight chances in the forecast during that time.

Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s during the entire period.
With Tuesday seeing the coolest temperatures and Sunday seeing the


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Areas of showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to move
across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Stronger showers
and thunderstorms will result in vis temporarily dropping to the
3-6sm range. Persistent low level moisture will keep IFR stratus
in place at both terminals through most of the TAF period, with
LIFR cigs likely at KGLD tonight and early Monday morning.
Conditions should improve during the afternoon Monday, with
1000ft cigs possible at KMCK. IFR will be favored at KGLD through
Monday afternoon based on latest consensus of guidance. Periods of
gusty north to northeast winds will be possible late tonight
through Monday (17-22kt gusts possible at both terminals).




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