Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 140852
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A FRONT IS ADVERTIZED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA
TODAY.  THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z. PLAN TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN CASE THEY SURVIVE OR
DEVELOP AGAIN.  BY THIS EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA
PRODUCING SLIM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP
POPS LOW FOR TUESDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WHICH LIMIT
FORCING OVER THE AREA.  FORCING IMPROVES SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS GOOD AS WELL.
PLAN TO CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA. HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS LOOK ON TRACK. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FORCING STARTS MOVING EAST OF THE FA SO WILL
GO WITH DECREASING POPS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY.  EVEN COOLER
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 65. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON THURSDAY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH
GRADUAL MODERATING OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TWO SEPERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE REASONABLY GOOD TEMPORAL
AGREEMENT IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. ONE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING AND THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY. FORCING FROM THESE SHORTWAVES AND AT
LEAST MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND RISE TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOPED WITHIN THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME DEVELOPED NOTED NORTH OF KMCK. HOWEVER NEWER
GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
GUIDANCE. SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD. HOWEVER...DID
PUT IN A VCTS MENTION SINCE IT STILL LOOK EAST OF KMCK BUT IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE VCTS MENTION.

AT THIS TIME EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WEST OF BOTH SITES DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. KGLD LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHOSE NOT TO PUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER THE
WINDSHIFT...THE WINDS WILL GET GUSTY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...BULLER





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