Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231200

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
600 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Large scale ridge has amplifies over the western US, with NW flow
over the Northern Plains. At the surface high pressure is in place
over our CWA with a cold front now south and southwest of our CWA.

Early this morning: Patchy fog has developed near our eastern CWA
early this morning where higher surface Td`s are in place. Short
range guidance indicates that visibilities may be reduced to one
mile or less in our far eastern CWA before clearing takes place
after sunrise. This will need to be monitored.

Today-Monday night: Subsident and much drier air mass should support
dry conditions through these periods. Weak shortwave troughs may
rotate through the mean flow towards our region and some models show
weak precip signals, but with very dry moisture profiles I am
skeptical. Consensus if favoring dry conditions, and I leaned this
direction. If there was a period to monitor it may be Monday/Monday
night with better instability developing as southerly flow in the low
levels brings higher Tds back to our CWA. This is in response to
surface trough deepening in our west. Disorganized forcing is shown
my models, with a very inconsistent precip signal and the pattern
currently favors locations outside our CWA (mainly north).
Temperatures should be near seasonal values (upper 80s/90s for

Tuesday-Tuesday night: Ridge begins to flatten and with increasing
moisture at both the surface and PWATs we should see a more
unsettled pattern return. Models are showing decent instability in
place as another shortwave trough (a little stronger) moves into the
region, and models are showing better consistency in possible
thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.
Coverage is still a question, but slight chance/chance PoPs seems
reasonable. Model soundings show enough instability in place to raise
the possibility for a few severe thunderstorms. Shear will be weak,
so confidence isn`t high in an organized/widespread threat. Primary
impacts to monitor should be hail, wind, and possible heavy rain due
to better moisture profiles (PWATs around 1.3").

Air mass will moderate Tuesday-Tuesday night, and Highs will once
again be near 100F for parts of our CWA Tuesday afternoon, while
lows will remain mild. Heat index values should be low enough an
advisory won`t be needed.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

During the extended period expect showers and thunderstorms along
with near normal temperatures.

The upper level ridge will amplify over the Central Plains
throughout the period. While on the surface, a tail end of a
boundary associated with a surface low pressure moving across
Central Canada, will linger into Thursday night/Friday morning over
the region. Shortwave troughs traveling along the upper level ridge
flow will interact with this boundary and produce showers and
thunderstorms for the local region. Some storms may become strong to
severe during the afternoon and evening.

Friday and Saturday will see a surface high pressure producing
mostly dry conditions for the local region. Some areas may see
shower activity due to the shortwave troughs passing over the local
area. On Sunday, another boundary, associated with another surface
low pressure moving across Central Canada looks to influence the
local region with showers and thunderstorms. Very similar to the
boundary that will impact the region during the middle of the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 557 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions should prevail through TAF period at KGLD. I have
less confidence at KMCK where 6sm vis already reported and dense
fog (vis 1/4sm) is east of KMCK. Current short range guidance
keeps axis of lower visibilities east of KMCK, but it could be
close and I can`t rule out temporary restrictions of IFR or lower.
At this point, I don`t have enough confidence to introduce lower
conditions this morning and have kept conditions VFR. The window
for lower conditions will be before 14Z.




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