Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
FXUS64 KEWX 261142
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
642 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Please see the 12Z aviation forecast discussion below.
Low clouds continue to slowly develop over the region this
morning, but are coming in a little slower and with higher bases
than previously anticipated. Given recent trends, we have gone
with prevailing MVFR this morning for most sites, along with some
tempo IFR cigs at AUS between 12Z-15Z. We still expect improvement
back to VFR by early afternoon at all sites. Another round of
stratus is expected late tonight into Thursday morning and we`ll
mention MVFR toward the end of the forecast for AUS and SAT.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Drier air at midlevels is moving into South Central Texas behind
a shortwave trough as a mid-to-upper level ridge centered over
Arizona and New Mexico slides east. Middle and high clouds
associated with this shortwave are also beginning to clear out of
the region, which should allow temperatures that are currently in
the lower to mid 60s to cool a few more degrees as low stratus
develops along the Escarpment. Patchy fog will be possible through
mid-morning once again along and east of Interstate 35 and parts
of the Edwards Plateau given relatively calm winds and clearing
skies. However, this fog should be less widespread and dense than
last night considering dew points are a few degrees lower tonight.
High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday
given less afternoon cloud cover and drier air aloft, with most
locations in the mid 80s. Hi-res models suggest very isolated
afternoon showers are possible, but coverage should remain below
10 percent so they are not mentioned in the grids. Low stratus
tomorrow evening should keep lows similar to this morning`s in
the lower to mid 60s. Highs on Thursday will be about a degree
warmer than today as high pressure continues to build in from the
west to further suppress any shower activity or cloud development.
LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Drier air and more easterly flow should allow for clearer skies
on Thursday night into Friday morning to allow for the coolest low
temperatures of the forecast period in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Deeper southerly flow should quickly return by Friday to allow our
dry and pleasant fall weather to continue as high pressure aloft
becomes centered over the region and slides east as it weakens by
Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a weak shortwave trough moving
in from the west on Tuesday and Wednesday, which should allow for
at least isolated showers and thunderstorms with the best chances
in the Coastal Plains. However, dynamic forcing with this trough
should be weak given the more zonal nature of the flow and lack
of frontal forcing as it will dissipate to our north. Thus, high
and low temperatures will remain about 5-7 degrees above through
at least the middle of next week, with highs remaining in the
lower to mid 80s and lows staying in the lower to mid 60s.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 86 64 87 61 86 / 10 - - - 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 86 61 87 58 85 / 10 - - - 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 62 87 59 86 / 10 - - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 84 63 84 60 83 / 10 - - - 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 85 65 84 62 84 / - 0 0 - 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 85 62 86 59 84 / 10 - - - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 88 63 88 59 87 / - - 0 - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 84 62 85 59 84 / 10 - - - -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 61 86 61 84 / 10 - - - -
San Antonio Intl Airport 84 65 85 61 84 / 10 - 0 - -
Stinson Muni Airport 87 65 87 61 86 / 10 - 0 - -