Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 071145
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
545 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH CIRRUS
PASSING THROUGH THE SKIES. PATCHY BR WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS EAST OF
A KGTU TO KT20 LINE LINGERS THRU 15Z...THEN DISSIPATES WITH NO
IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR
AREAS NEAR KAUS FOR ANY POSSIBLE DRIFT INTO THAT AREA. VRBL WINDS
OF 5 KTS OR LESS BECOME SLY AND SWLY INCREASING TO 7 TO 14 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. WINDS
DECREASE TO 6 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING...THEN SWITCH TO NLY TO
NWLY AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 22 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30
KTS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT PASSES THRU OUR AREA.
EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE TAF SITES AROUND 08/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ALSO NOTED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW...BUT GIVEN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WE SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE
THIS MORNING EAST OF A GEORGETOWN TO YORKTOWN LINE. THE FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER 9 AM AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN CLEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR ALL AREAS ON
MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
AND FULL INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. IF
ANYTHING...THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SERVE TO SLIGHTLY HAMPER THE
WARMING TREND FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE THE WARMING
TREND. THE MODELS THEN DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IMPACTING OUR REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WE/LL
SIDE WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONLY MINOR COOLING
IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE TEENS.
DESPITE THE LOW RH/S...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH.
ON MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AS GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW...IT
APPEARS ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  40  61  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  36  61  33  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  37  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            66  37  59  34  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  39  64  37  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  37  60  34  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69  37  65  34  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  37  62  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  39  61  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  39  63  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  40  64  37  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24


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