Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 161508
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1008 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
RETURN FLOW PATTERN WL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ACROSS SOUTH TX WL DEVELOP/MOVE INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TX BY THE AFTN/EVE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES DUE TO
THE RETURN FLOW. MEANWHILE...CIRRUS WL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER A FLAT
BROAD RDG AXIS ANCHORED TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...WL CALL FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY. THE FCST TEMPS LOOK ON
TRACK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND FCST SOUNDINGS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS (UP TO 25-30 KT AT TIMES) CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
AREAS. THIS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WL PRODUCE AT LEAST ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTN FOR PRIMARILY VAL VERDE COUNTY.
OVERALL...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST
PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO FORM
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z TONIGHT AS RESULT OF A MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE
GULF. IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT I-35 SITES BY 12Z. PATCHY BR AND
DZ COULD ALSO OCCUR...DROPPING VSBY TO 5SM IN THAT TIME PERIOD.
CURRENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 12 TO 22 KNOTS THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS AFT O2Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SURFACE RIDGE IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
FLOW RETURNING TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MANY
AREAS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT OUT WEST WHILE AREAS CLOSER
TO RIDGE ARE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS. SOME
LOW LYING SPOTS MAY FLIRT WITH FREEZING NEAR SUNRISE. WARMING AND
MOISTENING TREND BEGINS TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY TO
GENERATE LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH DRAGS A WEAK FRONT/SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR AREA STALLING JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH GENERATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TROUGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENDING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WILL NOT MENTION POPS. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO DUE TO MOIST AIRMASS. A SLOW WARMING TREND RESUMES THIS
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITIES FALL TO NEAR
20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND
GUSTY.

CLIMATE...
AUSTIN BERGSTROM HAS A NEW RECORD LOW OF 35 FOR TODAY APRIL 16TH.
THE OLD RECORD WAS 37 SET IN 2007. THE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY FALL
A LITTLE MORE BY SUNRISE. THE OTHER CLIMATE SITES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE THEIR RECORDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  55  74  58  80 /   0  -   20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  52  75  57  79 /   0  -   20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  55  77  58  81 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  53  72  56  78 /   0  -   20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  57  85  61  83 /   0  -   -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  52  73  57  78 /   0  -   20  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  56  82  61  84 /   0  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  54  75  58  80 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  55  75  58  80 /   0  -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  57  79  60  83 /   0  -   10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  58  81  61  83 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MB/99...SHORT-TERM





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