Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 240451
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1051 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PERIOD...
Building 800ft cloud deck east of I-35 may creep to the I-35 corridor
in the first 3-4 hours of the TAF period but will struggle to impact
the I-35 terminals. MVFR BR is still expected prior to the passage
of a cold front before daybreak. Winds will then shift to the
northwest and become breezy in the late morning and afternoon hours
resulting in crosswinds on north/south runways.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

UPDATE...
Southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico has returned faster this
evening bringing higher dewpoints to across the I-35 corridor and
Escarpment. HRRR and RAP indicated this better than the other models
and have updated to generally follow their trends. Stratus has also
developed near the Coastal Plains. Expect it will push further to the
northwest and may approach the I-35 corridor overnight. Then, a
Pacific cold front will surge east pushing this deeper, yet shallow
moisture back to the Coastal Plains early in the morning. Otherwise,
no significant changes to the South Central Texas forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed nearly zonal flow across the
southwestern US with a trough over the northern Rockies. At the
surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds were from
the southeast to southwest. The upper level trough over the northern
Rockies will swing down through the southern plains. A cold front
will move through north Texas tonight and our CWA Friday morning. The
atmosphere is still very dry and the front will not generate any
precipitation. Behind the front, drier air will move in with breezy
northwesterly winds. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front,
but still above normal.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Dry weather will continue Saturday. Low level winds will become
southeasterly bringing moist air back to the region. Sunday there may
be sufficient moisture and isentropic lift to produce showers and
thunderstorms. Monday another cold front will move through the region
bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.
High pressure will build back in behind the front with dry weather
through the remainder of the period.

FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity will drop below 20 percent across all of our CWA
Friday afternoon. Breezy northerly winds between 10 and 15 mph will
lead to near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              57  80  42  65  45 /  -    0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  56  80  41  65  43 /  -    0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     56  82  42  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            52  75  37  61  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           54  80  44  74  51 /   0   0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        55  77  39  62  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             53  83  41  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        56  81  41  65  44 /  -    0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   59  81  43  66  45 /  -    0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       56  83  44  67  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           57  83  45  69  48 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...04
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams


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