Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 030536
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1036 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS....DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSISTS THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BY MIDWEEK AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:57 PM PDT MONDAY...A SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
RESIDES ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING WITH A WELL DEFINED
MARINE LAYER IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST. THE MARINE LAYER CURRENTLY
STAND AROUND 2000 FT DEEP PER THE FORT ORD PROFILER WITH CEILINGS
BEING REPORTED AROUND 1000 FEET ALONG THE COAST FROM ARCATA SOUTH
THROUGH MONTEREY. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
FLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS COOLING
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. HIGHS FINISHED OF
THE DAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND 70S TO LOW
80S INLAND. BRADLEY WAS OUR WARM SPOT TODAY WITH A HIGH OF 90. LOW
CLOUDS WILL INEVITABLE FILL IN OVERNIGHT UNDER A 2000 FOOT MARINE
LAYER WITH A SLOW BURNOFF ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY. LOW
CLOUDS AND A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY BUT OTHERWISE A REPEAT OF
TODAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEEPENING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO
FORM A CLOSED LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES AND A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS THE BOARD. AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
CORE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFT EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONAL NORMS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN BY SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...2000 FOOT MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST HAS ALLOWED STRATUS TO
SPREAD INTO SNS AND MRY EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL SPREAD
INTO THE EAST BAY AFTER 06Z AND BEND AROUND THE SOUTH BAY
REACHING SFO LAST. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP STRATUS IN UNTIL 18Z OR LATER ON TUESDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR CIGS
SPREADING FROM THE SOUTH REACHING SFO BY 11-12Z. CLEARING AROUND
18-19Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO. MVFR CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE APPROACH AFTER 09-10Z SPREADING NORTH.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR
OCCASIONALLY. CLEARING BY 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
THURSDAY THEN MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI


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