Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 142153
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
153 PM PST SUN FEB 14 2016

...WARM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER CALIFORNIA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY. COOLING IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO ALL AREAS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PST SUNDAY...FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL BE NEAR TERM RECORD WARMTH THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE MUCH ADVERTISED WARMTH IS EASILY SEEN ON THE AFTERNOON
OBSERVATIONS. MANY LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S ON THEIR WAY TO
70S AND POSSIBLY 80 DEGREES BY DAY/S END. IN ADDITION TO THE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AROUND THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN. MT DIABLO IS GUSTING TO 42 MPH
AND OTHER PEAKS ARE 20-30 MPH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODERATELY
STRONG...WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH AND EAST BAY. GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH SEEM REASONABLE FOR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
SOME MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HILLS.

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HELPED TO BRING WARM TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS AND H5 ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ON
MONDAY AS WELL. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS 850MB TEMPS ON MONDAY
CLOSE TO 16C...NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR 850MB TEMPS OBSERVED AT
KOAK. THAT BEING SAID...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW
80S...CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY. TEMPS WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL
BE SEVERAL ABOVE NORMAL.

A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS STILL BEING ADVERTISED MID WEEK AS A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. ONE DIFFERENCE ON RECENT MODEL RUNS IS TO SLOW THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE BEGINNING OF PRECIP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
SOAKER...BUT MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL NONE THE LESS. 0.25-0.75 INCHES
NORTH BAY AND COASTAL MTS AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OR TWO
ELSEWHERE. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

A SECOND SYSTEM IS STILL BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN. ONE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS THE CANADIAN AND
ECMWF BRING PRECIP MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY WITH
BREEZY... OCCASIONALLY GUSTY... ONSHORE WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BELOW 15K FT AGL WITH FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS
PRIMARILY ABOVE 20K FT AGL. NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING FOG FOR
TOMORROW... BUT 6SM FROM BR/HZ POSBL BTWN 10-18Z MON.

VICINITY OF KSFO....VFR. WESTNORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15KT
WITH GUSTS POSBL 25 TO 28 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. POSBL BR OVERNIGHT AT KSNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY
FEBRUARY 14 THROUGH TUESDAY FEBRUARY 16. THE RECORD HIGH IS LISTED
FOR EACH DAY ALONG WITH THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS SET (IF THE RECORD
WAS SET ON MORE THAN ONE YEAR...THE MOST RECENT YEAR IS LISTED).

                          SUNDAY         MONDAY         TUESDAY
LOCATION                  FEB 14         FEB 15         FEB 16

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD               84/1930        79/1930        77/1930
  SAN RAFAEL              78/1977        78/1977        77/1977
  NAPA                    81/1930        81/1943        81/1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN  78/1930        76/1930        75/1930
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT   74/1977        75/2015        69/2007
  OAKLAND MUSEUM          80/1977        80/2015        75/2015
  OAKLAND AIRPORT         72/2013        73/1977        73/1977
  RICHMOND                77/1977        75/1977        75/2015
  LIVERMORE               79/1977        80/1933        78/1977
  MOFFETT FIELD           82/1977        79/1977        73/1977
  SAN JOSE                80/1930        80/1930        78/1930
  GILROY                  80/1996        81/1991        81/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                81/1943        79/1977        73/2013
  SANTA CRUZ              82/2015        82/1916        85/1930
  SALINAS                 83/2015        81/2013        80/1977
  SALINAS AIRPORT         84/2015        81/2015        77/2013
  KING CITY               85/1977        86/1977        90/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:40 AM PST SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHTER
WINDS OVER THE BAYS DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. RAIN
WILL RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: DYKEMA


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