Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 281158
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...THE RETURN OF A BETTER
DEFINED MARINE LAYER HAS ALLOWED COASTAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN-OFF BY LATE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. DURING THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ON LABOR DAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
A DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AND WOULD
MOST LIKELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE REGION WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING
OVER THE SFO BAY AREA BUT A HOLE IN THE STRATUS REMAINS FROM SFO
TO THE SAN MATEO BRIDGE. STILL A QUESTION OF WHETHER CIGS WILL
FILL IN THIS AREA BUT IN ANY CASE CIGS WILL IMPACT THE APPROACH
THROUGH 17Z POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 18Z.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 16Z. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 18-20 KT AFTER 20Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...IFR CIGS IMPACTING THE APPROACH THROUGH 17Z
AND POSSIBLY TO 18Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:24 AM PDT THURSDAY...LATEST BUOYS REPORT SWELL
5-7 FEET AT 14-15 SECOND PERIOD. SWELL DIRECTION IS FROM 150-170
DEGREES. A SWELL FROM THIS DIRECTION WILL BRING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT NOT SO MUCH OUR COASTAL
WATERS. SWELL DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND BUT SWELL HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-4 FEET WHICH IS
JUST BELOW BEACH HAZARDS CRITERIA. THEREFORE A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL NOT BE ISSUED BUT CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED WHEN
VENTURING NEAR THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI

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