Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 060531
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
931 PM PST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
COULD BRING A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST THURSDAY...A DOMINANT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER,
LIGHT WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.
AT THIS HOUR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEYS.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. BY
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
BEGINS TO WEAKEN RESULTING IN A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM A WEAK
OFFSHORE TO A WEAK ONSHORE. THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE
SEEN ALONG THE COAST WHERE COOL MARINE AIR AND PATCHY COASTAL FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE COAST.
MEANWHILE INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE.

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM PROPAGATES EAST THE
UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE REGION WILL BREAKDOWN. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND OPENING UP THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z RUN OF THE
GFS GIVES THE MONTEREY BAY REGION SOUTH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
BUT WITHOUT OTHER MODELS TO COMPARE WE WILL HAVE TO HOLD OFF ON
MORE SPECIFICS. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE NORTH BAY AND ALONG ALL COASTAL MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR.

.NOTE...DUE TO COMMUNICATION ISSUES WE ARE UNABLE TO ACCESS MOST
OF THE AVAILABLE DATA INCLUDING SATELLITE IMAGES AND SOME MODEL
DATA. AS A RESULT NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HOWEVER WE DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR CHANGES AS THE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:30 PM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEAK LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SEABREEZE...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A GENTLE MIXED
SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

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