Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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519
FXUS64 KJAN 300854
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
354 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
For the Today through Friday night period, predawn water vapor
imagery and model analysis showed the ArkLaMiss under an upper trough
with northwest flow across the CWA. This feature was around a
subtropical ridge 593 dkm high centered over New Mexico. Latest
predawn surface analysis showed a stationary surface front around the
interstate 20 corridor. Predawn temps were in the middle 60s to lower
70s.

The primary concerns will be our rain chances across the south
as well as temperatures.

For the Today through Friday northwest flow will help the current
stationary front to waver across the region through early Friday
evening. The boundary will dissipate Friday night. Better
precipitable water and some moisture transport will be confined to
our southeast counties for the period. Hi-Res models shows only
isolated convective coverage across the far southeast counties.
Precipitable water will run from 1.3 to around 1.5 inches.

As we push into Friday night the frontal boundary will be weakening
as it pushes south of the CWA by Friday night. So expect dry
conditions for Friday night.

As far as temps are concern it will be cool enough to avoid any heat
index concerns through Friday afternoon. Daily highs will be mainly
in the middle 90s with the dryer airmass. Lows for tonight will be
from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows for Friday night will be
mainly in the lower 70s. It will be less humid today with minimum
humidity running at 25 to 30 percent with 50s and 60s dewpoints.
Minimum humidity will be mainly in the 30 to 36 percent range with
60s dewpoints and light winds. Since winds will be light, see no
fire weather issues for today or Friday./17/

.LONG TERM...
Warmer than normal temperatures are still expected for the long term
period. Models have trended drier for Saturday as it appears a
stalled frontal boundary to the north will be too far away for any
associated convection to affect our CWA. Afternoon highs are expected
to be above normal topping out at 95-98F. This raises heat index
concerns but our PWATs will be around and inch and a half with
afternoon dew points mixing into the mid to upper 60s. This will
result in peak heat index values of 101-104. Sunday ridging surface
and aloft will strengthen along the Gulf coast from the east
resulting in deeper moisture return over our area. Our PWATS are
expected to increase to around an inch and three quarters with
surface dew points remaining in the lower 70s during the afternoon.
highs will top out again at 95-98F, resulting in peak heat index
values around 105. The return flow will help the Gulf sea breeze
surge farther north and associated convection may affect our southern
most zones but, a Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the CWA
Sunday. Ridging surface and aloft looks to hold tough over the
northern Gulf Monday while a shortwave trough swings east across the
the mid Mississippi River valley. The GFS is deeper than the ECMWF
and Canadian with this feature and an associated surface low but,
models agree there will be a better chance of rain across our
northern zones Monday afternoon and evening which will lead to lower
afternoon temperatures. The GFS is likely too far south with the cold
front but models agree that as the shortwave shifts east Tuesday, a
weak cold front will become stranded and stall close to our northeast
zones. Ridging surface and aloft will continue to limit rain chances
over the southern half of our CWA Tuesday and Wednesday but depending
on where the front actually stalls, better rain chances are possible
over our northeast each day. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
There may be some brief MVFR conditions from 10-14z at locations
that received some rainfall on Wednesday. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions to prevail. Isolated convection may develop over our
southeast counties. This may cause some brief MVFR/IFR conditions
across KHBG for mainly this afternoon into early evening. Winds will
be from the north at 5 to 8 knots for this afternoon. Winds will be
lighter tonight, about 5kts or less. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  69  95  73 /  10   2   7   2
Meridian      96  67  96  72 /  10   4   7   3
Vicksburg     94  69  96  73 /  10   2   7   3
Hattiesburg   92  71  96  74 /  18  11  13   5
Natchez       91  71  95  73 /  10   4   9   4
Greenville    93  71  96  74 /   9   1   7   3
Greenwood     92  69  95  72 /   9   2   7   4

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

17/22/17



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