Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 180610 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1210 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Updated for 06Z aviation discussion.


06Z TAF discussion:
TAF sites to be impacted by low stratus with IFR to MVFR ceilings
through most of the period. Some clearing and lifting of ceilings
will occur from south to north after 18Z today as a front lifts
northward. KGLH, KGWO, and KGTR have the greatest chances of
keeping reduced ceilings through the end of the period. Chances
for light rain will continue across portions of the area today as
well, with showers bringing the possibility of local reductions in
visibility. /NF/


Showers continue across central and southern sections of the
forecast area this evening in association with a frontal boundary
that has slowly trudged its way southeast across the region
throughout the day. Chance of showers will persist tonight for
much of the same area before beginning to spread northward during
the latter overnight period. Guidance has continued to trend away
from the potential for patchy dense fog developing over parts of
the forecast area overnight and forecast was adjusted
accordingly. Otherwise, no significant updates were required.

Prior discussion below:

Forecast details continue to be in flux as a cold front pushes
slowly southeast across the ArkLaMiss in association with a
shortwave trough passage and weak height falls. Strong mixing ahead
of the front has brought well above normal warmth to the Pine Belt
region again this afternoon with highs reaching the lower 80s. Given
strong capping ahead of the front and weakening ascent with the
departing trough, most rainfall is anafrontal and light in nature,
although precipitable water values near 1.5 inches are supporting a
brief heavy downpours.

Looking ahead to tonight, expect rain chances to diminish this
evening and become mostly confined to southern portions of the
ArkLaMiss as the front weakens further and stalls. There may be some
potential for patchy dense fog development over the Pine Belt region
late tonight into early Sunday morning, but guidance has become more
optimistic in the past few hours and will hold off on adding this to
the HWO for now and continue to monitor guidance/obs trends.

Expect the shallow front to mix northward again tomorrow morning as
was the case earlier today. Warm advection associated with a
building ridge over the southeast CONUS will support a few showers,
but weak frontal lift will should only bring light rainfall amounts
on average. /EC/

Sunday night through next work week:

Above normal temperatures will be returning to the region by Monday
into Tuesday, with highs reaching the lower 80s by Tuesday for most
locations. An isolated shower or sprinkle cannot be ruled out for
Monday. Chances for precip will be a little better on Tuesday. There
looks to be enough instability by the afternoon for a stray
thunderstorm, but not expecting anything organized at this time.

Better chances for showers and storms return to the area by
Wednesday into Wednesday night. At this point the risk of
hazardous weather (from severe storms and heavy rain) is not nil,
but still too low to yet consider mention in the HWO or graphics.

Chances for showers and isolated storms will continue Thursday, with
lower chances Friday. Chilly air on the west side of the front
should at least make it into the Arklamiss Delta for 24 hours or so
before the boundary likely starts shifting back to the west again
Thursday or Thursday night, but not expecting cold enough
temperatures for there to be any chances for wintry weather. /27/BB/


Jackson       67  59  82  64 /  46   8  12  10
Meridian      66  59  79  62 /  21   8  18  12
Vicksburg     67  59  81  64 /  48   8  11   9
Hattiesburg   73  61  80  64 /   5  13  18  14
Natchez       70  62  81  66 /  17   8  11   9
Greenville    59  56  77  63 /  34  14  11   9
Greenwood     62  57  79  64 /  33  15  11   9





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