Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 222020
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETROGRADING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE BROKEN OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTWARD DRIFTING LOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING IN
THIS MOIST AIR MASS DESTABILIZES OUR ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE AID OF THE
THE UPPER LOW STILL RESIDING OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION...ALTHOUGH A
BIT FURTHER WEST THAN ON TUESDAY.  JUST AS WE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY...
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION MEANDERING ABOUT...I DID ADJUST HIGHS
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS AS THEY AGAIN PEAK AROUND
THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...A FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT...OR ANY OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION THAT`S ONGOING NEAR IT...COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT MAY IMPEDE UPON MY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES
TOWARD DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE... LOWS WILL AGAIN
FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S. /19/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY....NO BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE
REGION. WITH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PLANTED OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE ARKLAMISS WILL CONTINUE TO GET FRONTS AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES EVERY FEW DAYS. THIS IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED AMPLE SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOR POPS.

BY THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST STALLED FRONT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
STALL ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION AROUND MONDAY. EACH SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LACKING MUCH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH EACH SYSTEM IS
ALSO DISTANT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN PLENTY OF VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA NEARLY EVERY DAY. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEMS STAYING TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN RIDGE WAVERING
FURTHER EAST SOME DAYS...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MISS
THE WESTERN ZONES...BASICALLY AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OF COURSE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT POPS RIGHT NOW ARE LOW. BETWEEN EACH FRONT WILL
BE A DAY OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. NOT
ANTICIPATING A PATTERN SHIFT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. /07/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
STATUS IF CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN EACH SITES RESPECTED
AERODROME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING
AS CONVECTION WINDS DOWN. THEREAFTER...MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EAST AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES EVERYWHERE WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL AROUND 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  91  71  92 /  20  31  14  19
MERIDIAN      69  91  69  92 /  28  35  19  26
VICKSBURG     69  91  70  92 /  14  23   9  18
HATTIESBURG   70  92  72  93 /  22  36  14  31
NATCHEZ       69  90  70  93 /  13  40  11  23
GREENVILLE    70  92  73  91 /  10  15  11  16
GREENWOOD     70  91  72  91 /  15  23  20  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/07/26





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