Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 201039
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR
SOUTHEAST...A DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST EMANATING FROM A HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING OUR DELTA
REGION THAT WILL SWING EAST OF MISSISSIPPI BY NOON AND HELP KEEP
THE GULF SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST. THIS WILL HELP END THE REMAINING
LIGHT RAIN THAT WAS FALLING OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE LOW LEVEL DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD HELP THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME INSOLATION TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S. TONIGHT WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITH OUR SITES IN
THE NORTHEAST BOTTOMING OUT NEAR FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY WHILE OUR WINDS ALOFT
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS SUGGEST A
LOW POTENTIAL OF LIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER THE GULF THIS
MORNING. THE DRY EAST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE SUNDAY WILL
LIMIT RETURN FLOW UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN IT WEAKENS. THIS IN TURN
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS IN OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.
/22/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY ACTIVE
LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THE ARKLAMISS. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS THE .75 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT OUT
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY ON TUESDAY OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND ALSO THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE
BEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO BE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND INDICATES 400-600 J/KG OF ML CAPE ALONG WITH A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SHEAR. 0-3 HELICITY VALUES RANGE FROM 220 IN THE WEST TO
340 M^2/S^2 IN THE EAST. DUE TO THESE REASONS ALONG WITH SEVERE CIPS
ANALOGS LINING UP WITH THIS EVENT...WILL INTRODUCE AT LEAST A
LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE IN THE HWO/GRAPHICASTS FOR TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. A COOL DAY IS ON TAP
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE FLOW
WILL ONCE AGAIN SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH EARLY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT
A WARMUP TO BEGIN AS UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEPENDS OVER THE PLAINS.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODEL FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS
WEAKER WITH THE COLD FRONT. BOTH OF THE MODELS BUILD HIGH PRESSURE
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY./15/

&&

.AVIATION...A SFC LOW TRACKING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WAS
HELPING PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER SE MS AND WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST
TODAY AND CONDITIONS WL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18Z OVER MEI-HBG. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED BY MID AFTN AND WL CONT TONIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       55  35  59  43 /   6   3   8  13
MERIDIAN      56  34  59  44 /   9   5  10  14
VICKSBURG     54  33  58  42 /   4   3   6  12
HATTIESBURG   58  40  60  46 /  16   5  13  22
NATCHEZ       56  37  59  46 /   5   4   8  13
GREENVILLE    51  33  54  41 /   2   3   6   8
GREENWOOD     52  32  55  41 /   3   3   5   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/15/22







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