Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 062021
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE BIG OMEGA BLOCK IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND HAS 500MB HEIGHTS RISING OVER OUR
AREA NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND WINDS ARE
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS CURRENTLY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST, CLOSER TO THE CWA. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY,
TEMPS WILL RISE CLOSE TO NORMAL AGAIN, INTO THE LOW 80S, WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RISING MORE INTO THE MID 80S. 10/

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE CONUS SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MIGRATING OUT OF THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS NEW ENGLAND LOW HAS OPENED UP AND BEGUN TO SHEAR
OUT. THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN HELD
IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS TO FINALLY BEGIN MOVING EAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY IN A SERIES OF LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FINALLY TAP INTO
SOME BETTER DEWPOINTS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER WHERE LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN BY
MONDAY MORNING.

GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE LAPSE
RATES INITIALLY ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...UPPER 20S VERTICAL TOTALS
MOVES IN LATE WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ALL THIS HINGES UPON THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVEMENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE GFS/ECMWF...OF WHICH
MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST COMING OUT OF THIS BLOCKING
PATTERN. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WL BECOME NEAR CALM TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       52  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      49  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   2
VICKSBURG     53  83  59  84 /   0   0   0   4
HATTIESBURG   51  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   2
NATCHEZ       53  81  59  83 /   0   0   0   4
GREENVILLE    55  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   5
GREENWOOD     53  82  59  83 /   0   0   0   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/10/26/22/


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