Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 281542 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1042 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Updated for morning discussion.


Per the 12Z KJAN RAOB, a fairly dry airmass continues to exist
across the forecast area this morning.  Surface high pressure now
residing well northeast of the region, will result in winds becoming
more southeasterly through the course of the day.  While this will
initiate the increase in surface moisture over the area, that
moisture increase will be fairly subtle.  So, overall dry conditions
will persist as highs range from the middle 80s to around 90.

Aloft, an upper level low moving east off the Texas coast will cause
moisture aloft to increase throughout today across the Lower
Mississippi River Valley.  This will also result in the increasing
presence of clouds over the area, as well as isolated to scattered
showers and storms lifting north from coast across locales mainly
along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor through the afternoon
hours. Much of this activity will begin to dissipate around sunset
this evening.

Based on observed temperatures yesterday, and the fact of there
being no appreciable airmass change today, I bumped highs up a
degree or two in a few spots for this afternoon.  Otherwise, the
ongoing forecast is in good shape.  Thus, no further changes will be
made on this update. /19/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight:

Our stretch of pleasant weather has come to an end. The large
upper trough has pushed off to the east, and the surface high also
has become centered more over the Mid-Atlantic states. This has
helped our winds switch around out of the southeast to south
today. This will help moisture filter back into the region.
Dewpoints will return to the upper 60s and lower 70s across the
ArkLaMiss. Precipitable water is forecast to increase from the
south today, as values will range from 2.1 inches in the Pine Belt
this afternoon to 1.5 inches near the Highway 82 corridor. As
temperatures warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s, and combine
with the influence of another upper trough lingering over the
northern gulf, isolated to scattered showers and storms will occur
this afternoon. These should initiate in the south and move
north. The greatest coverage should be south of I-20, and closer
to the Highway 84 corridor. Much of the convective activity will
diminish through the evening hours. Hi-res guidance indicates some
could linger into the overnight hours in the east, but thus far
have left this out of the forecast. However, additional activity
Thursday could begin rather early in the morning. Overnight lows
will be rather mild in the lower 70s. /28/

Thursday through Tuesday:

An active weather pattern is expected to continue Thursday through
at least the weekend. Primary focus will be on daytime
thunderstorm potential and a warming trend in high temperatures.
High pressure over the Southeast U.S. will gradually shift
westward over the Gulf Coast by the weekend, keeping moist
southerly flow across our region through that time. Meanwhile a
series of shortwave troughs of varying strength will move across
the northern half of the country. Afternoon temperatures are
expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the
70s, leading to decent instability. Wind shear will be fairly
weak (0-6 km shear less than 15 kts most days), as most of the
upper-level energy staying to our north. Therefore organized
severe weather is not currently expected through early next week.
Models do indicate that drier mid-level air with steeper lapse
rates could edge into the area by the weekend, so we will continue
to monitor the potential for microbursts during that time. /NF/


12Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the period at most sites. A
better chance for showers and storms will exist today,
particularly for TAF sites along and south of I-20. Have included
mention of VCTS for HBG/MEI where confidence is higher in storms
affecting the site, but left out of JAN/HKS where confidence is
lower but may need to be added later. Storms could bring brief
MVFR vis restrictions. Otherwise, southeast winds will prevail
today around 10-15kts at all TAF sites. Low clouds and/or patchy
fog will be possible tonight after midnight/closer to daybreak.


Jackson       90  71  84  73 /  36  20  62  27
Meridian      88  71  83  72 /  34  20  69  34
Vicksburg     90  71  85  73 /  27  20  57  25
Hattiesburg   86  70  82  72 /  51  40  73  34
Natchez       86  71  83  73 /  43  35  63  28
Greenville    88  71  85  73 /   9   8  39  21
Greenwood     90  71  85  73 /   5  10  46  21





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