Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 022055
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

MIXING OVER-ACHIEVED AGAIN TODAY GIVEN VERY DRY GROUND AND THIS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH 100 DEG F IN THE JACKSON AREA WHICH
RESULTED IN VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY. LIGHTER WINDS HAVE
HELP TO MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER THREAT SOME AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY...BUT STRONG MIXING WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD
HOTTER/DRIER CONDITIONS THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...AND
HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURE RANGES AS WE GO INTO THE NEW WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (H850 TEMPS
~ 22 DEG C) WILL SHIFT A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS WEEK...
SO EXPECT TO SEE HOTTER READINGS SHOWING UP ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTN/EVNG FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
ALONG/S OF THE HEZ/HBG CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY INCREASE
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA-BREEZE INFLUENCE. BUT EXPECT
GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTN/EVNG...PARTICULARLY
ALONG/W OF THE MS RIVER WHERE AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS POSSIBLE. /EC/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST
FLOW RETURNS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA KICKING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE WILL CHANGE ON THURSDAY WITH
PWATS RANGING FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAT WILL RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD ALSO...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING ABOVE
105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL ONCE AGAIN PROBABLY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS PERIOD.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND DROPPING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND./15/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD BE A FANTASTIC DAY FOR FLYING. WINDS WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5-10KTS
WITH SOME BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. AS MOISTURE RETURNS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK AND REDUCE VIS SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD NOT BE
A LARGE IMPACT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  99  72  99 /   1   3   2   9
MERIDIAN      65  98  67 100 /   1   3   2   7
VICKSBURG     66  99  70  99 /   2   2   3  17
HATTIESBURG   71  99  73  99 /   7   9   9  17
NATCHEZ       68  97  73  97 /   2   8   8  20
GREENVILLE    68  98  70 100 /   1   2   1  12
GREENWOOD     67  97  69 100 /   1   2   1   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/15/28



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