Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 212115
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014


.DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION
YESTERDAY HAS HELPED TO SPUR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MS. ELSEWHERE THE EFFECT OF THE PREVAILING AND
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT IS KEEPING CONVECTION ISOLATED AT BEST.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO REMAIN MOST CONCENTRATED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LITTLE IMPETUS TO LINGER MUCH PAST SUNSET.
WE WILL BE WATCHING MORE VIGOROUS CELLS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTIVE OF ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS. ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY ISOLATED AT BEST AND THUS NOTHING WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
HWO.

THE PATCHY RAINFALL IN WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IS HELPING TO
BREAK THE HEAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS...BUT ELSEWHERE HOT AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE LEADING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105
CURRENTLY. MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD COOL DOWN ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT TO KEEP
HEAT ADVISORIES FROM BECOMING NECESSARY (SINCE LOW TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE 75 ARE ALSO CRITERIA TO MEET ADVISORY STATUS). TOMORROW AND
INTO THE WEEKEND THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED RIDGE WILL BE AN EVEN
BIGGER PLAYER...INCREASING HEAT AND DOING A BETTER JOB AT
SUPPRESSING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MAV HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK MAINLY ON TRACK WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED TO
SATISFY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AFTER TODAY ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR REGION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS...SOMEWHAT TIED TO SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES CASCADING NORTH FROM
THE COAST. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE
THE REGION A BREAK IN WARM AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. THUS 850MB
TEMPS WILL COOL SOME INTO THE MIDDLE 20S DEGREE C. RAIN CHANCES WILL
PICK UP AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND PWATS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2 INCHES. THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY
FOR SOME CONVECTIVE CHANCES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE MEAN RIDGING WILL FLUCTUATE
SOME DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE TROPICS ARE CONCERNED MODELS ARE GENERALLY TRENDING
TOWARD KEEPING TROPICAL SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PUSHING THEN OFF THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE
MONITORING THE SITUATION CLOSELY AS A FEW GFS AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DO STILL MANAGE TO PUSH TROPICAL LOWS INTO THE GULF AS THEY
AVOID BEING PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.

AS FAR AS MODEL DIFFERENCES GO MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES... EURO...NAVY
AND UK MODELS KEEP THE MEAN RIDGE DOMINANT OVER OUR REGION. THE GFS
TRIED TO BRING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHED A FRONT TOWARD THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHICH SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MODELS WERE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND HEAT AND INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

ALL IN ALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY LARGE DEVIATIONS FROM MEX POPS
AND TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /17/BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND WILL
CONTINUE AT MOST INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE PSBL AT MAINLY
IN W TO SW MS TO NE LA...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING DOWN
KGLH/KJAN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY AROUND 20-23Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE W TO SW AROUND 4-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  97  74  97 /  13   8   8  10
MERIDIAN      72  97  72  98 /  12   9  10   9
VICKSBURG     72  96  72  97 /  13   7   4   8
HATTIESBURG   74  97  74  98 /  13  19   8  19
NATCHEZ       73  94  73  95 /  13  14   4  14
GREENVILLE    74  97  73  98 /  12   5   4   2
GREENWOOD     73  97  72  98 /  11   5   5   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DC/17




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