Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 261543 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1043 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...LARGE EXPANSE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST EFFECTIVELY SERVING TO CUT OFF NORTHERLY ADVECTION OF RICH
GULF MOISTURE. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AR INTO NW
LA AT THE MOMENT. OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER...ONLY A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING A NARROW WINDOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROBUST
CONVECTION OVER SE MS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AGREE THAT SE PORTIONS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BELIEVE HRRR
SOLUTION MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. HRRR DID NOT INITIALIZE THE
COASTAL CONVECTION VERY WELL AND AS A RESULT LOOKS TO BE OVERDOING
THE ADVANCEMENT OF RICH MOISTURE INLAND./26/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HBG/MEI WHERE FOG/STRATUS HAVE CONTINUED. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BECOME
VFR BY 16- 17Z...BUT A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE DELTA WITH
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15G20KT OUT OF NORTHWEST
AT GLH/GWO/JAN/HKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON./15/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FOR TODAY AND THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE. WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES AND
SREF PROBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING. THE MAIN FORCING DYNAMICS
WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED FORCING HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE RAINS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE 03Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A HALF TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO HIRES
GUIDANCE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. AFTER 03Z ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND END PRIOR TO DAWN FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY UNDER FULL
INSOLATION IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH WILL BE UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL./17/

LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ADVERTISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.  BOTH WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH.  AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ALL THE ABOVE WILL ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING IN
THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.  THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
COME PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  39  59  40 /  67  37   6   2
MERIDIAN      75  41  60  39 /  51  55   9   1
VICKSBURG     71  39  61  42 /  73  25   3   2
HATTIESBURG   74  44  63  42 /  52  41   6   2
NATCHEZ       72  41  63  43 /  65  25   4   2
GREENVILLE    65  38  58  40 /  66  17   7   2
GREENWOOD     66  35  56  38 /  60  27   7   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



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