Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 310034
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
734 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.UPDATE...

Broad mid/upper level troughing remains just to the N of the CWA
between two ridges, with one located over the Desert SW and the
other over the Atlantic, just off the coast of the SE. Diurnal
convection from this afternoon is quickly waning as expected, however
a stalled frontal boundary across N Arkansas combined with residual
outflow boundaries from last night`s convection over the Cental
Plains has resulted in another complex of thunderstorms over Arkansas
today. As of 00z, this area of convection was located over extreme SE
Arkansas and propogating towards the NW portion of the CWA. As
opposed to last night, this complex of storms is much healthier and
better organized. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates pockets of up to
3000 J/kg SBCAPE in addition to 25-30kts of effective bulk shear
across the ArkLaMiss helping to maintain the convection. Thus,
increased PoPs accordingly across the NW portion of the CWA. The
highest PoPs were kept north of I-20 and west of HWY 49 where the
highest confidence in storm coverage will exist through 2z. Hi-res
guidance is in agreement in dissipating convection by 3-4z across the
NW CWA, so PoPs were trended down by 5z. Otherwise, temps were
lowered a few degrees across the NW counties/parishes were ongoing
convection is resulting in a quicker cooling trend, with overall
overnight lows being a blend between latest guidance and persistence.
/TW/

&&

.AVIATION...

TSRA/SHRA activity will diminish later this evening and will then be
followed by mainly VFR conditions overnight. The most recent suite
of near term guidance continue to suggest areas of MVFR category fog
during the predawn hours and this should persist until mixing out
shortly after sunrise. Sunday afternoon, the threat for isolated to
scattered TSRA can be expected with activity waning during the
evening hours. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are moving across the area this afternoon and this
will continue into the early evening when most of the activity will
diminish. Skies will become partly cloudy overnight with lows in the
low/mid 70s. Expect very similar conditions on Sunday as today, with
showers/thunderstorms developing by late morning and increasing in
coverage by mid afternoon, as a weak short wave energy moves across
the area. The models suggest slightly better mid-level lapse rates
of around 6.0-6.5 c/km on Sunday, but little flow. Cant rule out a
strong to possibly severe storm on Sunday, but will not put anything
in the HWO at this time and let the mid shift further evaluate.
Expect another quiet night Sunday into Monday with lows in the
low/mid 70s once again.

The global models increase heights slightly across the area on Monday,
but with afternoon heating and PWATS above 2 inches over most of the
area, expect another round of afternoon/early evening thunderstorms.
Highs will climb into the low 90s across most of the area./15/

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...Under weak but general
northerly flow aloft, ridging will subtly increase across the region
through the course of the long term period. At the surface, high
pressure will remain wedged into the forecast area front the east,
resulting in weak southerly flow and a continued humid airmass over
the CWA.

Each afternoon will remain characterized by highs warming into
the middle 90s, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This convection will quickly dissipate around sunset each evening.
A few clouds will remain present overnight, as lows fall into the
middle 70s.  Afternoon heat index values look to again creep into
the 100-105 range across much of the forecast area, with indices
across the Delta Region perhaps climbing up to around 108 Wednesday
through Friday. /19/

AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving
across the area this afternoon, and any direct impact from a storm
could certainly yield brief IFR flight cats and gusty winds at an
affected airport. Otherwise, anticipate VFR conditions through the
remainder of the afternoon, with CU bases generally from 3 to 6 kts
and west to southwest winds at 5 to 15 mph. Convection should
dissipate this evening with at least patchy MVFR flight cats, mainly
due to vis restrictions, possible by daybreak Sunday. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  92  74  91 /  21  47  25  53
Meridian      74  94  73  94 /  26  49  27  54
Vicksburg     75  92  74  90 /  45  46  21  45
Hattiesburg   74  90  74  91 /  41  59  26  56
Natchez       74  90  74  90 /  41  54  22  53
Greenville    75  92  74  93 /  60  40  20  39
Greenwood     75  91  73  91 /  38  40  23  43

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$



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