Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 272110
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH MOSTLY SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAS SINCE MOVED TOWARD FLORIDA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AND SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HOWEVER AS THEY MOVE FURTHER
EAST...THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING A LITTLE MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR AND
HAVE BEEN WEAKENING. THIS ALL COMES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TRACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO TRACK TO THE EAST TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/MID-SOUTH. RAIN AND MOISTURE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER BUT SEVERE STORMS DONT LOOK LIKELY. IF
THE BOUNDARY CAN ADVANCE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD TRACKING
SFC LOW AND BETTER MOISTURE CAN MOVE INTO THE REGION AND INTERACT
WITH THE SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE...THERE COULD BE A STRONGER
STORM. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS AT
THIS TIME.

THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION AND INTO AL/FL BY TOMORROW
EVENING AND THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
WILL THEN SWING OVER THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY ENDING OUR RAIN
POTENTIAL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING/NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S(YES EVEN A NIGHT WHERE SOME 40S ARE POSSIBLE!). SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE BACK TO TYPICAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT A BAD
WAY TO END APRIL AND USHER IN MAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN ONE THINKS ABOUT
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENTS FROM JUST A YEAR AGO AND FOUR YEARS
AGO. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON.EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH 23Z...BUT EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT
MOST TAF SITES AFTER 01-02Z. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TAF SITES WILL DEVELOP MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING./17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  64  51  66 /  76  64  40  21
MERIDIAN      55  67  53  65 /  60  71  57  30
VICKSBURG     57  61  51  67 /  81  62  36  13
HATTIESBURG   61  74  53  67 /  85  64  30  18
NATCHEZ       59  64  49  66 /  85  52  24  11
GREENVILLE    54  58  50  66 /  70  73  48  11
GREENWOOD     53  60  50  67 /  55  72  53  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$
28/17



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