Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 301604 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1104 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Not much changes needed to the going forecast. Overall surface
analysis shows a stalled frontal boundary situated along the coast
with higher moisture confined along and south of that boundary.
Morning upper air analysis shows an upper ridge out west while our
area is situated under northwest flow and influence of the the large
scale trough over northeast CONUS. Much drier air is situated in
central and northeast Mississippi, with a core of near an inch of
PW`s in our area with even less than an inch PW`s in north-central
TN. This will help us warm and mix efficiently today, with dewpoints
in central and NE Mississippi falling possibly into the upper 50s,
and highs slightly warmer into the low to mid 90s. Adjusted high
temperatures slightly. Thankfully with lower PW`s and surface
afternoon dewpoints, heat stress will not be a concern this
afternoon. Higher moisture is situated along the coast, near 2 inch
PW`s, and some showers/storms could develop near that boundary,
mainly late this afternoon. POPS looked pretty good overall. /DC/


.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions to prevail today. Isolated
convection may develop over our southeast counties. This may cause
some brief MVFR/IFR conditions across KHBG for mainly after 18Z.
Winds will be from the north-northeast between 5-10 knots and
weakening later into the evening. /DC/BB/17/


.DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

For the today through Friday night period, predawn water vapor
imagery and model analysis showed the ArkLaMiss under an upper trough
with northwest flow across the CWA. This feature was around a
subtropical ridge 593 dkm high centered over New Mexico. Latest
predawn surface analysis showed a stationary surface front around the
Interstate 20 corridor. Predawn temps were in the middle 60s to
lower 70s.

The primary concerns will be our rain chances across the south
as well as temperatures.

For the today through Friday, northwest flow will help the current
stationary front to waver across the region through early Friday
evening. The boundary will dissipate Friday night. Better
precipitable water and some moisture transport will be confined to
our southeast counties for the period. Hi-res models shows only
isolated convective coverage across the far southeast counties.
Precipitable water will run from 1.3 to around 1.5 inches.

As we move into Friday night, the frontal boundary will be weakening
as it pushes south of the CWA. So expect dry conditions for Friday

As far as temps are concerned, it will be cool enough to avoid any
heat index concerns through Friday afternoon. Daily highs will be
mainly in the middle 90s with the dryer airmass. Lows for tonight
will be from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Lows for Friday night
will be mainly in the lower 70s. It will be less humid today with
minimum humidity running at 25 to 30 percent with 50s and 60s
dewpoints. Minimum humidity will be mainly in the 30 to 36 percent
range with 60s dewpoints and light winds. Since winds will be light,
see no fire weather issues for today or Friday./17/

Warmer than normal temperatures are still expected for the long term
period. Models have trended drier for Saturday as it appears a
stalled frontal boundary to the north will be too far away for any
associated convection to affect our CWA. Afternoon highs are expected
to be above normal topping out at 95-98F. This raises heat index
concerns but our PWATs will be around and inch and a half with
afternoon dew points mixing into the mid to upper 60s. This will
result in peak heat index values of 101-104. Sunday ridging surface
and aloft will strengthen along the Gulf coast from the east
resulting in deeper moisture return over our area. Our PWATS are
expected to increase to around an inch and three quarters with
surface dew points remaining in the lower 70s during the afternoon.
highs will top out again at 95-98F, resulting in peak heat index
values around 105. The return flow will help the Gulf sea breeze
surge farther north and associated convection may affect our southern
most zones but, a Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the CWA
Sunday. Ridging surface and aloft looks to hold tough over the
northern Gulf Monday while a shortwave trough swings east across the
the mid Mississippi River valley. The GFS is deeper than the ECMWF
and Canadian with this feature and an associated surface low but,
models agree there will be a better chance of rain across our
northern zones Monday afternoon and evening which will lead to lower
afternoon temperatures. The GFS is likely too far south with the cold
front but models agree that as the shortwave shifts east Tuesday, a
weak cold front will become stranded and stall close to our northeast
zones. Ridging surface and aloft will continue to limit rain chances
over the southern half of our CWA Tuesday and Wednesday but depending
on where the front actually stalls, better rain chances are possible
over our northeast each day. /22/


Jackson       94  69  95  73 /  10   3   7   2
Meridian      96  67  96  72 /  10   4   7   3
Vicksburg     95  69  96  73 /  10   2   7   3
Hattiesburg   94  71  96  74 /  18  16  13   5
Natchez       93  71  95  73 /  10   5   9   4
Greenville    94  71  96  74 /   9   1   7   3
Greenwood     94  69  95  72 /   9   1   7   4


.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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