Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 240843
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN BUBBLING UP OFF AND ON ACROSS THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING AS
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING`S
CONVECTION. FACTOR INTO THE EQUATION DAYTIME HEATING...AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION...AND THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. ALTHOUGH THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 30-35 MPH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ALL ACTIVITY
TODAY.

THAT SAID...GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS A BIT STINGY WITH POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...FOR THE REASONS STATED ABOVE...INCREASING POPS AREAWIDE
FOR TODAY SIMPLY MADE MORE SENSE THAN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.  AFTER SOME ADJUSTMENTS...POPS
FOR TODAY NOW RESEMBLE THOSE OF THE ECMWF THAN THOSE OF THE GFS AND
NAM.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  WHILE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT...IT`LL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NOW SLOWING FRONT.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL...
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  BEHIND THE FRONT...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY.  WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NOW OVER THE REGION...
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS.  WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S...WITH SOME SMALL
RAIN CHANCES OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
NEAR THE STALLED FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FALL DOWN AROUND 70. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS BOTH DAYS
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY
WHICH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THUS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERTURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF FLIGHT STATUSES RANGING FROM VFR/IFR ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING THANKS TO VARY CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND
VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY FOG.  BOTH SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR STATUS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.  WITH NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT`LL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH AND THROUGH THE REGION.  A BRIEF REDUCTION OF BOTH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR STATUS IS EXPECTED IF
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN A SITE`S RESPECTED AERODROME. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...AND BECOME MORE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  93  71 /  24  13   9   6
MERIDIAN      91  68  93  70 /  27  13  13   6
VICKSBURG     91  64  93  68 /  20  12   6   6
HATTIESBURG   92  71  94  73 /  34  19  27   7
NATCHEZ       91  70  92  72 /  26  19  14   5
GREENVILLE    91  65  92  70 /  15   4   3   6
GREENWOOD     91  63  92  67 /  16   5   3   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/SW





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