Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 030258 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
958 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONGEST CONVECTION WITH THE AFTERNOON MCS IS MOSTLY MOVING OUT OF
THE REGION. LEFT POPS IN UNTIL 06Z FOR CENTRAL/SE MS. LEFT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE NE DUE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
AND HRRR/RUC INDICATING SOME STORMS BETWEEN 06-12Z. HOWEVER...THIS
COULD BE TOUGH TO DO IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON MCS. LEFT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER INTO CENTRAL MS DUE TO SOME WANING INSTABILITY
ALOFT. STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF SE MS BY 06Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR...MAINLY IN THE E/SE...BUT COULD CLEAR SOME FROM NW TO SE. DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE REGION....HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE
GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY. FOG SHOULD
LIFT AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY. HRRR/GFS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
FOR FOG. SOME AREAS COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTEST
AND CLEARING IS THE BEST. LOWS LOOK GOOD OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
/DC/

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP IN GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MANY AREAS RECEIVED A
GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP LATE TODAY AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY. MVFR FLIGHT CATS IN THE 10 THROUGH 14 UTC SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD WITH PATCHY AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. AFTER 14Z SOME MINOR MVFR CEILINGS COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BREAK TO
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
MORE SCATTERED TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING A FEW ISSUES
FOR FLIGHT OPERATIONS. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...A LOCALIZED ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER (SMALL MCS) GOT
GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MS...AND IS NOW SLOWLY
WEAKENING WHILE PUSHING SOUTHEAST TO THE I-59 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY
HAS WANED TO THE POINT WHERE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY
ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF MS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. FURTHER BACK OVER CENTRAL
MS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION OF THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE
OF THUNDER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER.
ANOTHER UPDATE WILL COME IN A FEW HOURS TO ADDRESS FOG POTENTIAL FOR
LATE TONIGHT GIVEN SURPLUS OF WET GROUND ACROSS THE REGION. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORTED INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS NOW MOST PREVALENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MS. LOOKING AT
STORM TOTAL PRECIP...THERE HAS BEEN A RELATIVE MIN IN ACTIVITY ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM RAYVILLE TO THE VICKSBURG AREA UP UNTIL NOW...
BUT WITH SEVERAL NEARBY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...THIS WILL LIKELY NOT
REMAIN THE CASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN STRONG AT TIMES WITH LAPSE RATES
MARGINAL FOR SUPPORTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT LESSER BUT
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWER/TSTMS ALONG THE HWY 84 AND I-59
CORRIDORS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND HAVE KEPT SMALL
POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MS WITH SOME NWP GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTING IT.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
FIXED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AND THAT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY DUE TO LESS
INFLUENCE FROM THE WESTERLIES. A SIMILAR HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
PERSIST WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY MOIST AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
ABOVE TWO INCHES SUPPORTS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. /EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LOCKED IN PLACE AND A CONTINUATION OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WE HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING.

WILL PRETTY MUCH HAVE TO CONTEND WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING AIRMASS
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTH WHERE INTERACTIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE
MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. WENT CLOSE TO GFS MOS MAXIMUMS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AS BELIEVE THIS LEVEL OF WARMING WILL STILL BE LIKELY
GIVEN MID AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIMES.

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROFFINESS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO EASE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL QUICKLY STALL OVER THE NORTH AND NOT OFFER
ANYMORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE COOL AIR
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...INCREASED
CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAXIMUMS TO REACH
AROUND 90...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  94  72  95 /  17  53  25  51
MERIDIAN      72  94  71  95 /  18  53  25  53
VICKSBURG     72  94  72  96 /  11  31  22  43
HATTIESBURG   75  95  73  95 /  29  53  21  48
NATCHEZ       72  92  72  95 /  17  47  19  41
GREENVILLE    73  94  73  96 /  11  23  16  22
GREENWOOD     72  94  72  96 /  13  35  19  28

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/BB/EC/26/




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