Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 281438
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
938 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CU WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF I-55. THE MORNING MICROBURST
CHECKLIST IS GIVING US NEGATIVE VALUES...SO EXPECT ANY ISOLATED
STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR NOW IN THE SHORT
TERM, WE MUST CONTINUE THE DAILY MANTRA OF HEAT PLUS HUMIDITY EQUALS
MISERY, BUT TEMPORARY RELIEF IS IN SIGHT. FOR MORE ON THAT, STAY
TUNED FOR THE LONG TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION.

IN THE MEAN TIME, MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO RULE SUPREME IN OUR
CORNER OF THE WORLD. AS THESE FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED NEAR AND JUST
WEST OF THE CWA THE BEST CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
EXIST THE FARTHER EAST ONE IS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, WE COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE,
SO MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED AREAWIDE WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST.

WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TRANSITION. THOUGH HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL STICK AROUND, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE
NORTH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE DAYTIME. GIVEN THE AMPLE
INSTABILITY LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, IT WOULD BE
A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR GREATER COVERAGE THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH A POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
IT STILL APPEARS THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA, WITH TIMING FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
(THOUGH PERHAPS LASTING LATER INTO THE EVENING THAN ACTIVITY ON
RECENT DAYS). A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN OUTLINED THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY
IMPACT.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY. AS TODAY`S
PATTERN WILL BE RATHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, I EXPECT MIXING TO
PREVENT HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING CRITERIA OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO
WEDNESDAY, AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING MAY VERY WELL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED IN AREA AS WELL. TO PREVENT ANY CONFUSION WITH
TODAY`S ADVISORY ALIGNMENT, WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS ON MAKING
CHANGES.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION SPC/SHV/MEG/BMX/MOB. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE FORECAST STORY FOR THE MED
RANGE/LONG TERM REMAINS SIMILAR AS WE ARE LOOKING FOR A SMALL SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WHICH WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC FRONT TO PUSH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION LATER ON THU AND LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP HUMIDITY MUCH LOWER THAN WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING...BUT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH A
RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

BEFORE THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE OVERALL COVERAGE ALONG WITH STORM INTENSITY WILL DEPEND ON
WHAT THE ATMS WILL HAVE LEFT FROM THE PREV DAYS ACTIVITY...WILL
CONTINUE TO OFFER 30-50% CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 90S...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST AS CLOUDS/TIMING OF STORMS COULD IMPACT TEMPS
QUITE A BIT WHERE THEY COULD FALL SHORT OF THAT MARK OR EVEN EXCEED
THE MID 90S IF CLOUDS/PRECIP ARE SCARCE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONT...MUCH LOWER DEWPTS WILL ARRIVE WHICH
WILL KNOCK THE HUMIDITY DOWN QUITE A BIT. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO
SUPPORT COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (ESP N/NW HALF)
FOR FRI MORN INTO MON MORN. LOOK FOR UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOCATIONS A
TAD COOLER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE HELD IN CHECK A BIT FOR FRI-SAT WITH
HIGHS PEAKING 91-94. FOR SUN-TUE LOOK FOR A STEADY WARMING TREND
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MID 90S TRENDING TO UPPER 90S BY TUE. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE LOWER HUMIDITY AND THE LIKELY EXTENDED DRY STRETCH.
/CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
MOST TERMINALS. VERY ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE BRIEF
CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS IN A FEW SPOTS. LIGHT GENERALLY W-SW WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  /AEG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       98  76  97  77 /  16  12  27  32
MERIDIAN      95  73  95  75 /  18  18  34  29
VICKSBURG     98  74  98  76 /  15   9  19  28
HATTIESBURG   96  75  97  76 /  17  18  29  38
NATCHEZ       95  75  95  76 /  15   8  19  29
GREENVILLE    99  76  98  77 /  15   9  17  23
GREENWOOD     96  75  96  76 /  17  11  23  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/CME



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.