Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 150047 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
747 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT IN STORE AS 593DM H5 UPPER HIGH AND SURFACE HIGH IS
IN THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS ARE FAIRLY DRY IN THE
1.5-1.6 RANGE IN CENTRAL MS WHILE FARTHER S DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS ALONG THE GULF COAST. ONLY LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR S/SE UNTIL 03Z MONDAY. OTHER THAN THOSE
CHANGES...NOT EXPECTING FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT. SOME S/WV LIFT ALONG
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE H5 UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
IN THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR TONIGHT BEFORE FILLING IN FROM NW/SE TOMORROW
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY TWEAKED LOWS ALONG/SE OF NATCHEZ
TRACE DUE TO DEWPOINTS RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER. ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
/DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT UNTIL 9 PM AROUND
HBG/PIB. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS COULD BRING LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN...MAINLY AROUND HBG/PIB. ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE A BRIEF MVFR
DAYBREAK RESTRICTION TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH NOT TERRIBLY LIKELY.
A GREATER COVERAGE OF AFTN TSTMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY OVER THE SE HALF
OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW SHOULD STILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR AWAY FROM DOWNPOURS. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES FOLLOW SUIT INTO THE 20-50%
REALM FROM NW TO SE.

LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH THE LAST
REMAINING STRATUS DECK LINGERING NEAR NATCHEZ WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKLAMISS. SEA-BREEZE INITIATED
SHOWERS ARE GETTING GOING ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTH AL AND THIS
SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH INTO FAR SE AREAS BUT DISSIPATE BY
9-10PM.

A REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE WILL PIVOT AROUND A
FLAT H5 RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE SE CONUS AND LINK WITH A STRONGER NRN
STREAM TROUGH AND SPEED MAX THAT WILL ACT TO PROVIDE GREATER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS FURTHER
BREAKDOWN THE WEAK FLAT H5 RIDGE AND INDUCE STRINGER NW FLOW. THIS
S/WV TROUGH WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE TEMP/MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION WITH A CONVERGENT FOCUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A TUPELO TO MONROE
LA LINE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR
2". MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
INVOF WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WAVES
EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, NORTHERLY LOW-LVL FLOW
SHOULD PUSH WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR AND THUS PLACE THE BEST
RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH AREAS.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...DID A BLEND OF GFS/EC FOR POPS WITH GFS
LOOKING A TOUCH LOW AND FOLLOWED A MET/EC MOS TEMP BLEND WITH GFS
LOOKING TO WARM GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND RESPECTIVE 925/850 NWP TEMPS.
/ALLEN/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL WEDGE ITSELF INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT BAY...FOR THE MOST PART...WHILE A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE CWA.

SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD COULD BRING SOME INCREASED CLOUDS DURING THIS TIME...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST ON THURSDAY AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THERE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AS LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SUBTLY BEGINS TO INCREASE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  90  69  89 /   7  30  27  22
MERIDIAN      67  90  68  88 /  10  40  27  30
VICKSBURG     67  91  68  89 /   6  26  24  21
HATTIESBURG   71  93  71  90 /  14  47  28  40
NATCHEZ       68  90  70  88 /   9  30  27  35
GREENVILLE    64  88  67  88 /   3  20  18  18
GREENWOOD     63  88  67  89 /   3  20  20  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/BB/ALLEN/19




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