Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 282137 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
WERE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT NAM CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWS SOME SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SOME STRATUS
IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
REGION. MEANWHILE A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE MIDMISS
VALLEY REGION WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
FOR THURSDAY EXPECT THE PATCHY FOG TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE. THE COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTH...WHICH
WILL BE 10 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS CLOUDS DECREASE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 30S. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY WE WILL GET TO MORE
SEASONABLE READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 30S./17/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
ON SATURDAY WE WILL HAVE A CLOSED OFF LOW AROUND BAJA. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO PUSH INTO THE CWA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. REGIONAL MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS ALOT OF DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME DURING THE NIGHT. SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEFINITELY BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
COLUMN WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO MODERATE RAINS AS ASCENT PICKS UP.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST INSTABILITY TRENDS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RAINS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
BECOME LIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY. OUR NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
EURO AND THE GFS MODELS DIVERGE ON PROJECTED TRACKS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
TRACKING IT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...WHILE THE EURO TRACKED IT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CANADIAN WAS SLOWER IN BRINGING
THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO WITH SUCH A RANGE IN
POPS BETWEEN MODELS COMPROMISED WITH LOW END POPS WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
DURING THE WHOLE PERIOD./17/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AROUND
DAYBREAK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG TO
DEVELOP LAST THROUGH PART OF THE MORNING. AT THIS POINT MVFR VISBYS
WERE INTRODUCED AT HBG...AND FEW010 CEILINGS AT ALL LOCATIONS TO
BEGIN TRENDING TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR INTRODUCING A LOW CLOUD DECK
IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES. EASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
STAY UP AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  73  38  54 /   2   7   4   1
MERIDIAN      39  72  38  54 /   2   7  13   1
VICKSBURG     47  73  39  53 /   2   7   1   1
HATTIESBURG   42  75  42  56 /   2   5  12   1
NATCHEZ       48  74  39  54 /   2   6   4   1
GREENVILLE    49  67  35  49 /   3   9   1   1
GREENWOOD     47  68  35  51 /   4  11   1   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/DL













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