Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 032020
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...GREATER HEIGHTS AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR MASS
TODAY HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE GREATER
INSOLATION AREAWIDE. THE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT PRODUCT WAS STILL SHOWING
TWO INCH PWATS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND LOCAL RADARS
SHOWED A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON WAS
SHOWING THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE 590DAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BECOMING A GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY LIGHT WINDS SURFACE AND
ALOFT...BUT CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR OVER
NORTHERN GULF FROM MOVING UP INTO OUR AREA. SO ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WARMER IN THE MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS MID TO LOWER
6O DEW POINTS MIX DOWN EACH AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON BUT THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. /22/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH
60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VCTY SHRA ACTIVITY WL AFFECT HKS-JAN-MEI-HBG THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 02Z FRI. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KMEI AND KHBG. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  95  72  97 /   8  19   8  18
MERIDIAN      70  94  70  94 /   6  18   8  20
VICKSBURG     71  95  72  97 /   9  19   8  21
HATTIESBURG   72  94  72  94 /  15  26  14  29
NATCHEZ       71  93  72  93 /  17  24  12  29
GREENVILLE    71  96  72  96 /   5  12   8  16
GREENWOOD     70  95  71  95 /   5  10   8  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26/SW



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