Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 020748
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
248 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
248 AM CDT

THROUGH FRIDAY...

ABOUT THE ONLY THINGS TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM ARE COOLER
TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE AND POTENTIAL FOR CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE TO
FILTER SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS KEEP TEMPS A HAIR COOLER. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID SUMMER WEATHER TODAY AND INTO
TOMORROW AS WELL. NOAA SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS FAIRLY HEAVY SMOKE
PLUME ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SMOKE INTO THE AREA SUSPECT SUNSHINE WILL BE
FILTERED BY SMOKE TO AT LEAST SOME EXTENT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO
PLAN TO HANDLE THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED SUNSHINE WITH HAZE MENTION IN
THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS.

IZZI

&&

.LONG TERM...
248 AM CDT

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES HAVING FAR LESS INFLUENCE BOTH SPATIALLY AND
IN MAGNITUDE ON TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SKIES WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR...THOUGH AGAIN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMOKE COULD OBSCURE
SUN SOME...BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACKING MORE WESTERLY SUSPECT
SMOKE WILL BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH MONDAY NIGHT NOW MORE
FAVORED...THOUGH SOME OF THE SLOWER GUIDANCE LIKE THE ECMWF WOULD
EVEN SUGGEST MORE OF A TUESDAY EVENT WITH REGION SQUEAKING OUT
ANOTHER DRY/WARM DAY ON MONDAY.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS MICHIGAN
LEAVING NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNDER A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS ARE ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING IT WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE ONSET OF MIXING EXPECT ANY LOW CIGS THAT MAY BE IN PLACE TO
MIX OUT AND FOR WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE 10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF AGAIN DURING
THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CIGS EARLY
THURSDAY...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS..NORTHWEST WINDS...AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* LOW IN IFR.
* HIGH IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS.

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED VSBY
IMPACTS.

RC

&&

.MARINE...
356 PM CDT

ON THE EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...NORTHERLY
FLOW IS PERSISTING OVER THE LAKE. SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY STAYED IN
THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WHILE 10 TO 15 KT HAS
BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE NEARSHORE IN ILLINOIS/INDIANA.
HOWEVER...VEERING FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR THE HIGHER WAVES TO REACH
PORTIONS OF THE INDIANA SHORE WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FT BEING
REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OBSERVED
ON THURSDAY AND AS THE SURFACE PATTERN TIGHTENS UP...SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY RETURN BACK TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE OPEN
WATERS AND NEARSHORE.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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