Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 060803
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL
303 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

214 PM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR SPREADING BACK ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY WEAK
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SOME MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR A
LIGHT SHOWER AND PERHAPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH MUCH WARMER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...HIGHS AROUND 80 MAYBE LOWER
80S STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE IL COUNTIES...70S IN NORTHWEST
INDIANA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND
THIS MAY PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...EVEN ALONG THE IL
SHORE SO NOW HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS ALL THE WAY TO
THE SHORELINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE APPEARS TO DIMINISH
SOME DURING THE MORNING BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ACTIVITY MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND BY THIS TIME LIKELY BE OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MAINTAINED THUNDER MENTION BUT BEST
THUNDER CHANCES MAY ALSO END UP BEING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY REMAIN DIFFICULT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND WITH LESS PRECIP EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS MAY WARM FASTER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
THEN TEMPS COULD FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AT LEAST
NEAR THE LAKE. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INLAND BUT BY EVENING...COOLER AIR
FLOWING IN OFF THE LAKE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

214 PM...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL IL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS EVEN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE DRY BUT
WITH THIS FRONT NEARBY...MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THIS MAY SLOW THE OVERALL
NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM FRONT ALLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY
OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES AS
WELL AS THE LOW WEAKENING AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH
FROM ONTARIO MIDWEEK. SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER STILL
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO COOL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE LIGHT
TO AT TIMES CALM WINDS...A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AIRFIELDS. ALTHOUGH THE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN AS GROUND FOG...AND LIKELY ONLY IMPACT KGYY AIRFIELD. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
6-10KT. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT/LAKE BREEZE FROM IMPACTING ORD/MDW. HOWEVER...IF
WINDS END UP BEING LIGHTER THEN THE LAKE BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO
MOVE INLAND NEAR MDW/ORD BY MID AFTERNOON.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...
258 AM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY...STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY DRIFT SOUTH
WHILE A LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO
TOWARDS QUEBEC BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...THEN STEADILY PUSH
SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVEL LIGHT THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO 15 TO 25 KT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...HOWEVER WITH THE MUCH WARMER AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKE
WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT BUILD MUCH BEYOND 3 TO 5 FT.

THE WEAK GRADIENT MAY TURN WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY WITHIN THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY. WAVES WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE...AND COULD COME CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS FOR THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER
SATURDAY EVENING...THEN TURN EASTERLY.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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