Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 222203
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
403 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
1227 PM CST

TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIP ALONG
WITH HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHERN STREAM SFC LOW HAS BECOME WRAPPED UP ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WITH THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS BECOME
MORE EASTERLY...WITH A FEED OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT THE SFC
INTO NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. THIS HAS BEEN ABLE TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO WARM...AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAX TEMPS MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL JUST AFT 00Z AS A STEADY CONVEYOR OF WARMER/MOIST
AIR ADVECTS NORTH.

LOCAL SOLUTIONS BRING THE BETTER SLUG OF PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY LIFT THE STEADIER RAIN NORTH
OVERNIGHT. QPF TOTALS HAVE DECREASED FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS...BUT
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST. THE SFC LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHEAST IOWA
OVERNIGHT...WITH A DRY WEDGE BECOMING ENTRAINED OVER MISSOURI.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING TOWARDS POSSIBLY AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE
DRY SLOT INTO THE FORECAST AREA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES ON TRACK/PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...HAVE HELD
ONTO SOME LGT RAIN AT DAYBREAK THEN LIFT THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF
INTO WISC BY MID-MORNING TUE. TEMPS OVERNIGHT MON SHUD BE NEARLY
STEADY...THEN AFT MIDNIGHT WITH A 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF 3-6 DEG C
LIFTING NORTH EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOW 40S.

TUE EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO BE SLOWLY WEAKENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WISC...WITH THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS EJECTING THE SECONDARY SFC LOW
ALONG THE WESTERN GULF. THIS SECONDARY LOW IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
WED AFTN-WED NGT ACROSS OUR REGION. THE DRY WEDGE SHUD KEEP PRECIP
WEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU TUE MORNING...THEN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BRING LGT RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVE. TEMPS
SHUD WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 40S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 50 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWFA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL BE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
AND LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY WED MORNING...THEN IT
BECOMES A CHALLENGE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW BEYOND WED MORNING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CORRECTIONS...WITH A FEW SOLUTIONS
BRINGING THE LOW NORTH INTO NORTHEAST IN AND A FEW FURTHER EAST.
THIS WILL BE A KEY PLAYER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE POTENTIAL
DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH COULD BRING ACCUM SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
WED AFTN/EVE. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAY WED...AND WITH
THE INCREASED FORCING...THIS COULD BR STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
WARMER AIR AT THE SFC AND ALLOW RAIN TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AND
START ACCUMULATING. GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO DEMONSTRATE A
WEAK EASTERLY LLVL JET AT 850MB LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WED AFTN/EARLY EVE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A
DEFORMATION SNOW BAND FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWFA. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT EITHER WAY IT WILL IMPACT
A PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL
DAYS OF THE YEAR.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR THE 500MB TROUGH TO PUSH EAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES...LIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE/PRECIP NORTHEAST WITH
IT. MOST GUIDANCE COMES INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT FOR HIGHS
ARND THE MID/UPR 30S...WITH POSSIBLY THINNING CLOUD COVER.

BEACHLER

&&

.LONG TERM...
252 PM CST

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD SURROUND A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE SECOND TO PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST (SHOULD CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE) ON SUNDAY.  FIRST SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURS NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE
WESTERN U.S.  MODELS SHOWING NRN IL GENERALLY DRY FRIDAY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.

MEANWHILE A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE BASE
OF WESTERN U.S. TROUGH THEN ON SATURDAY AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. MODELS NOT COMPLETELY RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM YET AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A FORECAST SCENARIO WHERE A
SHARPER SHORTWAVE HELPS TO ORGANIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
TX/LA GULF COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPLICATIONS SUNDAY. WILL
CONFINE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO JUST THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF
THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR SEASONAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.

ED F

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* IFR/LIFR LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUES MORNING
* PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT
* REDUCED VSBY AT TIMES 1-3 SM.

BMD/IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

CONDITIONS ARE STEADILY DETERIORATING ALREADY WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A LEAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALLOWED RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED A FEW ICE
PELLETS BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE COLUMN WILL QUICKLY WARM AND WILL
NO LONGER SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FAIRLY QUICKLY DROP TO IFR EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON TODAY AND WILL REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE LEAD
WAVE...THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP INTENSITY BUT MOIST
CONDITIONS AND SOME FORCING MAY RESULT IN A VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND WARM FRONT
WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY RESULTING IN PRECIP INTENSITY
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS...PRECIP SHOULD TAPER AND THERE MAY BE A GRADUAL RISE IN
CIG HEIGHTS BACK INTO MVFR.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL CIG TRENDS BUT LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
  IN EXACT TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

BMD/IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY. MAINLY VFR...THOUGH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF RA/SN CHANGING TO SN. IFR LIKELY.

THURSDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS...MAINLY EARLY.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. CHANCE OF -RA/-SN

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

RATZER

&&

.MARINE...
305 PM CST

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRISK EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KT. THE STRONGEST
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY ON THE SOUTH HALF.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUICKLY DIMINISHING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VRB OVER THE NORTH.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO ANOTHER QUICKLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL LIFT NORTH
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN FURTHER INTENSIFY OVER WESTERN/NW QUEBEC ON THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO AND
AM CONCERNED FOR A PERIOD OF GALES ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOSEST TO THE BOMBING LOW. HAVE NOT ISSUED A
WATCH YET DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD WILL
LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE. NORTH-NORTHWEST GALES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTH HALF AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE OF A 30 KT PREVAILING/OCNL GALE GUST
SCENARIO. A FAST UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD
REMAINING OVER THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND.

IN THE NEARSHORE...HAD EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR THE IL ZONES
THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY FOR LINGERING WAVES FROM BRISK
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING
WAVES.
RC

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.

&&

$$

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