Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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543
FXUS63 KFSD 181803
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1203 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Sunday will bring our last gasp of warmth for several days as an
impressive low level jet gets going overnight. Winds have kept our
temperatures from falling off tonight and will drive some vigorous
mixing tomorrow to get us into the 40s and will bring some gusty
winds to the surface, potentially gusting above 45 mph in parts of
northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. Have thus opted to issue a
wind advisory.

Late Sunday night brings the arrival of our long advertised extended
period of snow and wintry mix as a longwave trough begins to dig in
over the western CONUS while a series of disturbances in the flow
translate across the northern Plains. The southerly flow earlier on
Sunday will have brought in enough warm air aloft to lead to a
wintry mix across northwest Iowa, while most of southeast South
Dakota will receive light snow as the most of the column will be
below freezing by the time precipitation starts. Northwest Iowa
could get up to a tenth of an inch of ice Sunday night into Monday
morning, so have issued a winter weather advisory. For the rest of
the forecast area, snow amounts Sunday night look to be low,
generally an inch or less.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Early Monday will likely see freezing rain and sleet continue in
northwest Iowa as southwesterly flow aloft helps maintain a nose of
warm temperatures around 850-800mb. Monday`s precipitation type
looks messy, to say the least. Anything from snow northwest of a
Yankton - Windom line, to freezing rain/sleet southeast of a Sioux
City - Spencer IA like with a mix of everything in between. The CWA
will be in the right entrance region of the upper jet pretty much
all day Monday, so have put in PoPs for the entire period.

By late Monday night, the warm nose aloft will have eroded and
saturation will reach above the -12C level across nearly the entire
CWA, so we should all be receiving snow by that time save for areas
around Storm Lake and Ida Grove. Unfortunately, it looks like
forecast simplicity will not result from this, courtesy of potential
banded snowfall. GFS, NAM, and CMC all show moderate frontogenesis
around the 700mb level with a weakly stable or even unstable layer
above it as the main wave swings through. Have bumped up amounts
slightly along a Bonesteel - De Smet line to illustrate some of the
potential banding. Did not go all out with a QPF increase because of
the uncertainty that always comes with potential banded snowfall.
This will be something to keep an eye on as it comes in range of
short term guidance. With more time to go before the main snowfall
event, have opted not to issue any headline products at this time.

Opted not to focus too much on the extended forecast beyond Tuesday
morning due to the larger impact weather all taking place during the
first three days. Next chance for precipitation looks to be in the
Thursday-Friday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Strong south winds will rotate to westerly and then rotate to
become gusty northerly winds throughout the afternoon and evening
today. High clouds will continue to cover the region, with mid to
low cloud decks slowly expanding southward as colder air flows
into the region. Winter precipitation is expected in the next 24
hours with locations around KHON seeing light snow develop after
19/0600z lasting through the morning. A very light wintry mix
could start during the early morning for KFSD lasting into the day
Monday. Areas around and east of KSUX will have a better chance to
see accumulating freezing rain, with up to 0.1 inches. Sleet
could mix with freezing rain by 19/1200z through Monday morning.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
     for SDZ070-071.

     Wind Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ067-070-071.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
     for MNZ081-090.

     Wind Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ080-081-089-
     090-098.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
     for IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

     Wind Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
     for NEZ013-014.

     Wind Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ferguson
LONG TERM...Ferguson
AVIATION...VandenBoogart



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