Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 190333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1033 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Diurnal cumulus field will slowly dissipate by this evening as
relatively broad surface high pressure lingers across the area.
It`s not impossible to see a sprinkle out of one of the more
well-developed clouds this afternoon.  The primary forecast
concerns are really focused on meager rain chances on Wednesday as
a quiet forecast continues through the weekend.

Later tonight, mid-level clouds will begin to increase in response
to a shortwave crossing the Central Rockies. Mid-level frontogenesis
will begin to develop a linear axis of light rain along the Missouri
River valley by daybreak.  Light rain, with embedded pockets of
steady rainfall will linger in areas along and south of Interstate
90 into the early evening hours as this wave passes by. While a
low chance, there is a low amount of elevated instability along
the Missouri river during the daytime hours. Will include an
isolated thunder mention. Guidance is indicating a secondary area
of light rain may move out of the western Dakotas overnight,
tracking again down the Missouri River, and dissipate after
daybreak. QPF amounts are expected to be low.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Mid-level heights begin to increase on Thursday and Friday over the
western CONUS, placing the CWA in broad northwesterly flow aloft.
Temperatures on thursday may average near normal (High: 59 Low: 36).
Light southwesterly winds return for Friday, resulting in a very
nice end to the week, with departures from normal pushing 5 to 10

A flattening ridge moves across the Central CONUS for the upcoming
weekend, with continuing dry conditions into early next week.
Another perfect Fall weekend is ahead with the warmest temperatures
(5-15 degrees above normal) on Saturday. A slight cooldown is
possible on Sunday, but the light winds and full sunshine may
negate the feel of the cooldown.

Monday and Tuesday have the potential to be very warm days, given
climatologically warm 925:850 temperatures and breezy southerly
winds. As typical for this time of the year, increasing moisture
and cool nights could lead to stratus issues.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Scattered
showers will develop across areas generally south of Interstate
90 on Wednesday, but ceilings and visibilities are expected to
remain in the VFR range.




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