Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 232246

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
546 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Convection associated with MCV continues to shift east across
northern Iowa, with some trailing rain and embedded thunderstorms
in the cold pool left behind. Thinking this cold pool should serve
to stabilize the area from further severe threat the remainder of
this afternoon/evening, but will maintain some higher pops across
parts of southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa into the evening as
the low level jet ahead of approaching cold front could result in
some regeneration around the edge of the cold pool. This cold
front, now located from just west of Aberdeen to near Chamberlain
to just east of Valentine Nebraska per well-defined fine lines on
regional radars, will push across the forecast area through the
overnight hours, bringing drier and more benign weather to the
region for Wednesday.

Lows tonight may ultimately depend on where the cold front is
located by 12Z, but should generally range from upper 50s west to
mid-upper 60s southeast. Highs should be more uniform on Wednesday
as decent mixing warms temperatures to a few degrees either side
of 80.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Abbreviated discussion due to ongoing storm activity today. Our
forecast area situated between broad upper trough across eastern
Canada/Red River Valley and surface boundary which pushes into the
central Plains/mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday night-Thursday
night. Expect dry conditions to prevail with seasonably cool

For the longer range, another upper trough will swing into the
northern Plains Friday night into the first part of the weekend.
Temperatures remain on the cool side of late August normals, with
a stronger wave lifting northeast across the region sometime in
the Friday night/Saturday time frame. Still some model differences
in timing of the wave, with GFS/ECMWF favoring a slightly faster
precip threat focused on Friday night, while the GEM lags the
better chance into Saturday. What previously looked to be another
decent precip chance early next week now remains focused to our
south as a building upper ridge brings moderating temperatures
back to the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Isolated thunderstorms will continue to be a threat across the
area through the evening hours as a frontal boundary pushes
through the region. Will see occasional mvfr ceilings with this
activity. Otherwise, conditions improve after 05z as the system
moves away from the area.


.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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