Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 221730
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1130 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

ONLY REAL CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IS
TEMPERATURES ARE HOW COLD THEY WILL BE. READINGS EARLY THIS MORNING
HAVE NOT BEEN DROPPING OFF AS FAST OR FAR AS ANTICIPATED...BUT THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO AN AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAS MOVED OVER
THE AREA ALONG WITH WINDS HOLDING UP GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MUCH CLEARER AND WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH...SO EXPECT LOWS TO BE ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THIS MORNING FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS SO THE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
ABOVE ZERO WILL NOT FEEL QUITE SO BAD...BUT STILL PLENTY COLD AS
READINGS WILL BE NEAR RECORD COLD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY IN
MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOKING AT WINDS GUSTING
25 TO 35 MPH BY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LACK
OF SNOW COVER...HIGHS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 30S WEST OF INTERSTATE 29
AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO THE EAST. THE BREEZE STAYING UP MONDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP THINGS MIXED AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
BELOW THE MID 20S. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND. SO WITH GOOD MIXING
EXPECTED...AND MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE
COLDER AIR...WARMED HIGHS UP SEVERAL DEGREES...RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTH TO THE LOW AND MID 40S SOUTH.

OUR NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR DOES START MOVING IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY THOUGH. WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF SNOW AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STRONG SOUTHWARD MOVING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY. ALWAYS
TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BETTER SNOW CHANCES IN
THESE SITUATIONS...AS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TIMING WILL SHIFT
EVERYTHING. AT THIS TIME THE CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING NORTH HOWEVER...WITH ITS 0Z
RUN BRINGING SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME TOUGH TO LEAN
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...SO FOLLOWED A GFS AND ECMWF BLEND. AS MODELS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL BE A PERIOD OF PRETTY GOOD
LIFT...SO MODEL QPF CONSENSUS OF 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES IN THE MAX BAND
MAY BE ALRIGHT. THUS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SOMEWHERE IN OUR VICINITY...THIS SYSTEM
BEARS WATCHING.

ANY SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE STORY
THEN BECOMING THE COLD TEMPERATURES. 0Z MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME IN
COLDER WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS
HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN. TO BE HONEST...IF CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
VERIFY...IT WILL EVEN BE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS.
BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE LOWERING
TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. FOR NOW HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO LOOK GOOD. THE COLDEST DAY
AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH WIND
CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN -15 AND -25.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY DIVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THESE SYSTEMS CAN SOMETIMES MOVE
NORTHEAST AND GIVE US INTERESTING WEATHER...BUT ALL DEPENDS ON THE
TIMING OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES WHICH COULD ACT TO SUPPRESS
EVERYTHING SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE SOLUTION KEEPING MOST OF THE QPF
TO OUR SOUTH SEEMS MOST PROBABLE...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

VFR THROUGH 23/18Z WITH CLEAR SKIES. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS MAY
BARELY REACH 25 KNOTS FROM THE N/NW THROUGH 22/22Z TODAY BEFORE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-
     059>062-066-067.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...



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