Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 290722
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
222 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...Updated short and long...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A few minor forecast concerns for this morning. Winds are fairly light
and variable and a few locations are even calm. Temperature/dewpoint
depressions are decreasing across the region and there could be some
patchy radiational fog. The 4 km NAM is the most aggressive with lower
visibilities across central Kansas. The SREF also has some higher probabilities
of reduced vis in this area. As a result, have patchy fog from Victoria
to Mullinville and points east. Zero T/Td depressions have been observed
across northwest Kansas, so have put in patchy fog from Kendall to Trego
Center and points northwest. Dense fog is not expected. Confidence on
this is not tremendously high, but observations do suggest some trend
in potential. Any fog should dissipate by 7 am or 8 am. Otherwise, N/NE
winds will eventually veer E/SE by this evening as a high pressure
ridge axis shifts off to the east. Highs should top out in the lower
90s (a few upper 80s are possible across SC Kansas) with lows in the
60s for the morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Forecast concern in the long term was addressed previously. That is
maximum temperatures in the extended. Models are trending warmer next
week and boise verification is showing that the warmer solutions are
verifying better. As a result, have gone with mosguidance for highs.
Highs will increase each day, and the first half of next week has a
good chance of seeing mid to upper 90s. Lows will trend warmer too with
60s and mostly 70s to close out the extended period. For precipitation,
there is only a slight chance near the Colorado border along the trough
Monday night. A slight chance exists again for Tuesday as a minor wave
moves out along with convection. Any storms will remain isolated with
much of the region probably seeing no storms. The superblend pops look
reasonable for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR conditions expected through the TAF pd. There is a slight concern
for morning patchy fog for portions of central/south-central Kansas.
This was indicated per the 4 km NAM. Right now, thinking any fog will
remain north and east of the terminals. Otherwise, winds will be N/NE
5-10 kt then veer E/SE 5-10 kt tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  60  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  91  58  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  90  61  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  92  61  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  92  59  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
P28  89  61  89  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.