Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232303
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
603 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

The weather pattern during the short term can be depicted as an
upper level ridge over the Rockies with long wave troughs on
either side. Towards the surface, a dome of high pressure will be
located east of the area with a trough of low pressure across
eastern Colorado. This will lead to southerly winds across western
Kansas through tomorrow. Low level moisture will ooze back into
far western Kansas with dew points rising above 60 degrees in some
places. This will lead to warmer temperatures overnight with lows
ranging from the low 60s west to upper 50s across central Kansas.
The lee trough will intensify tomorrow leading to breezy southerly
winds tomorrow. A weak upper level shortwave will affect the area
tomorrow afternoon enhancing lift across the area. A few
thunderstorms will develop across eastern Colorado tomorrow
afternoon and slowly slide eastward in the evening. A few of these
storms may make it into far western Kansas by 00Z Friday,
otherwise expect an increase in cloud cover across far western
Kansas with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Highs tomorrow are
progged to reach into the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

As mentioned in the short term, a few storms are expected to
develop across eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon and slide into
far western Kansas Thursday evening. These storms will slowly trek
eastward Thursday night and possibly after sunrise Friday
morning. The chance of precipitation will generally be east of
Highway 283 with the best chance along the KS/CO border. Otherwise
expect cloud cover to increase across the CWA from west to east
overnight. Going beyond Friday into the weekend, it certainly
looks like temperatures will remain fairly seasonal at or slightly
below normal as the synoptic scale pattern becomes more
northwesterly across the Central Plains. In this pattern, low
level convergence will be weak as the overall pressure gradient
should be fairly weak. It is difficult to see any real formidable
precipitation/severe weather chances in a pattern like this,
although anytime there is northwest flow across western Kansas in
the warm season, whether it be late May, June, July, or now in
August, we need to watch for at least some isolated strong/severe
storms -- especially if a minor jet streak/shortwave trough
ripples through the pattern. As for temperatures, highs will
generally be in the mid to upper 80s with lows around 60 degrees
to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Will keep convection out of the TAFs
for tomorrow evening as most models are keeping activity west of the
terminals. Winds will be SE/S 10-20 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  86  65  84 /   0  10  20  20
GCK  62  86  64  84 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  62  82  62  83 /  10  20  30  30
LBL  62  86  64  84 /  10  10  20  30
HYS  60  89  65  85 /   0  10  10  10
P28  59  86  66  85 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden



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