Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 250525
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
...Updated Short Term...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
SE boundary layer flow continues to advect moisture into SW KS,
with dewpoints well into the 50s. Still no signs of advection fog
or stratus on satellite, and many of the short term models have
backed off on its development this morning. Will continue to
monitor. Otherwise, cirrus will thicken and lower through this
morning, with a mid-layer overcast expected by mid morning. Cloud
cover and moisture/SE winds will keep temperatures unseasonably
mild in the 50s through sunrise. A low of 55 at Dodge City would
be 15 degrees above normal for late October.
Shortwave trough producing thunderstorms across Arizona this
morning will arrive in western Kansas this afternoon and central
Kansas this evening. Clouds will remain thick ahead of this
incoming shortwave, but despite the clouds, afternoon temperatures
will remain unseasonably warm and way above normal. Expecting
highs mainly in the lower 80s with continued warm advection and
downsloping SW winds. Normal for late October is mid 60s.
SW winds will be strong and gusty this afternoon, particularly
across the SE 2/3 of the CWA, where gusts near 30 mph are
expected. Models have shown consistency not developing scattered
thunderstorms until after 7 pm/00z. As such, kept all zones dry
through 7 pm.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016
It will be a bit breezy Wednesday in the wake of a passing front. Highs
will be slightly cooler as well with more 70s than 80s. Chances of precipitation
looks rather bleak for the rest of the long term forecast domain. This
is due to a big ridge setting up shop over the greater region. Warmer
temps are possible by the end of the week as downslope southwesterly
flow develops. ECE guidance is warmer than MEX. Something to watch.
RHs look marginal at this time for RFW concerns, but again, this is
something to watch if Tds mix lower. The rest of the period will see
in an ebb and flow in temps, but above normal overall.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Shortwave over western Arizona this evening will affect SW KS
terminals through the TAF period. Moisture continues to increase
courtesy of SE boundary layer flow tonight, with dewpoints well
into the 50s. Will keep an eye out for stratus or advection fog,
but with no signs of it developing and many short term models
not forecasting it, will leave out of TAFs for now. Did mention
SW LLWS overnight as 850 mb winds increase. Widespread high clouds
will thicken and lower through Tuesday morning, with mid-layer
overcast expected by 15z Tue. After 15z Tue, SW winds of 18-28 kts
at HYS/DDC, a few kts weaker at GCK. Scattered -TSRA expected to
develop by 03z Wed, and included VCTS at HYS/DDC.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 55 81 53 80 / 0 10 30 0
GCK 52 82 49 79 / 0 0 10 0
EHA 52 85 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 54 84 51 80 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 53 80 51 76 / 0 10 30 0
P28 58 80 57 80 / 0 0 40 10