Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271928
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
228 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THERE WAS A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH MOVED THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS LAST NIGHT AND DUMPED UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOUTHERN
MEADE AND CLARK COUNTIES, AND FROM .25 TO .40 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF THE CWA. THIS PATTERN HAS LEFT HEFTY DEW POINTS IN PLACE,
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOWN IN OKLAHOMA. THAT BOUNDARY WILL
START TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST IN THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO, THERE WILL
BE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA, PROBABLY BY 20Z AND ADVANCE TO THE
GCK AND DDC AREAS BY 23Z TO 24Z. BY THAT TIME, THE MUCAPE VALUES
WILL HAVE REACHED +1200 TO +1400 J/KG IN OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST,
WITH BULK SHEAR SHOWING IN THE 17 TO 28 KNOT RANGE. ALSO, THERE
IS ANOTHER LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TREGO COUNTY SOUTHEAST
TO STAFFORD COUNTY, WHERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INITIATE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT I THINK THE EVENT WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED DUE TO THE DRIVING UPPER 300MB JET. THE UPPER WAVE
SHOULD SHOVE NORTHEAST AND RE-FOCUS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH A TRAILING LOBE OF VORTICITY BY 12Z, MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HAYS TO MEADE.

ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO NORTH OF I-70, BUT THE
UPPER WAVE WILL BE STILL BE DRAGGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO, A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIP EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BY
LATE MORNING AND PROVIDE ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR CONVERGENCE.
THEREFORE, THURSDAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. I DID NOT CHANGE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES, AS THE GOING FORECAST RANGE FROM NEAR 80F IN SCOTT
CITY TO TO AROUND 88F DEGREES IN MEDICINE LODGE SEEMS REASONABLE.
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD DOWN
SURFACE HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A +60KT UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS PROJECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ALONG
WITH THE INCREASED DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT PRESENT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN A
CORRIDOR OF INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE KICKS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEAR 25C IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALTHOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY BE
PRESENT EARLY IN THE DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S(F) FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR, AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BLANKET THE TAF AREA. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING, AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONG STORMS AT EACH TAF SITE FROM APPROXIMATELY 21Z-03Z. CIGS
MAY GO DOWN TO OVC050 AND VSBYS TO 4-5SM IN RAIN AND FOG, BUT IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10 TO 13 KNOTS AND CIGS IN THE BKN090 RANGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  86  63  86 /  50  50  70  40
GCK  66  84  62  86 /  60  50  60  20
EHA  64  83  61  88 /  50  50  60  20
LBL  67  86  64  87 /  50  50  60  20
HYS  68  85  65  85 /  60  50  60  40
P28  71  88  67  87 /  40  60  70  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE


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