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000
FXUS63 KDDC 010809
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
309 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Today:

We are firmly in the Summer doldrums with very quiet weather expected
through the short term period. For today, a weak sfc lee trough will
move across Kansas with very little in the way of impacts other than
a wind shift. The southerly winds this morning will eventually veer
NNE/NE through the first half of the day. The inherited maximum temperature
grid looks on track and did not change it. Calling for temps to peak
in the 85F-90F range. Kept pops aob 10 percent through tonight. The
ARW-NMM shows some spotty showers across western Kansas this afternoon,
but doubt this given the dry atmosphere in place. There could be some
mid to high level clouds lingering though. Went with slightly lower
dewpoint grids as mixing lowers sfc values a bit more than what is
shown in some of the models. Doing this seemed to work yesterday and
as well with numerical verification.

Tonight:

Overnight minimums expected to be in the lower 60s. Light and variable
winds are expected through the overnight. A stagnant upper air pattern
will continue with no precipitation expected to close out the short
term period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Relatively quiet weather can be expected across the region as an
upper level ridge of high pressure slowly moves out of the Rockies
and into the Plains States. Model soundings indicate fairly
negligible instability across southwest Kansas through Monday. Upper
level high pressure will remain anchored over northwest Mexico into
early next week. The medium range models continue to indicate that
an upper level disturbance currently in the vicinity of western
Mexico and southern Baja will lift north and east around the high
pressure and move out toward the northern and central Plains by next
Tuesday. Chance for showers and thunderstorms will be increasing by
late Tuesday and continue through Thursday as the upper system moves
through the Plains.

Temperatures will gradually increase into 90s through Tuesday. A
cool front should knock temperatures back a few degrees through
Wednesday and Thursday as a cool front pushes through western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Some mid to high level clouds,
but no categorical flight reductions to less than VFR. A weak sfc lee
trough will traverse across the region this morning with SSW veering
NW and eventually NNE. Magnitudes 5-11 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  62  88  64 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  87  61  87  63 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  85  62  85  61 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  88  63  87  63 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  90  61  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
P28  89  64  89  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Sugden