Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 021934
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
134 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Main focus was on late this evening and through the overnight hours.
Relied more on the ARW/NMMB models as the operational NAM looks quite
aggressive with QPF fields. The net result is that there could be enough
warm air advection and isentropic live spreading across the southern
zones for rain and eventually snow showers. Plumes vary with total snowfall
amounts, with some values at advisory criteria. Thermo fields from the
more aggressive models look strange with the lower atm too warm yet
accumulating snow. Will start out with a more conservative approach.
Areas south of Dodge to Liberal could see an inch of snow. The ground
is fairly warm, the event is during the morning on a weekend, and the
DGZ looks marginal. Therefore, will not be issuing a winter weather
advisory, but did increase total snowfall amounts. Seward and Meade
counties could see the most snowfall. These amounts will likely need
to be fine tuned as we go through the evening bearing out WSR-88D trends
and observations. Impacts overall should be on the low side given the
weekend and time of day. I did undercut highs for tomorrows in these
areas with the most snowfall just a bit below guidance. Tonights lows
should be more mild with all the cloud cover as the atm moistens top
down.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Next item of interest is Tuesday and Wednesday. The 12Z EC looks a little
less impressive than the 00Z counterpart in terms of precipitation potential.
There is still large uncertainty this far out, so will continue with
the fb pops for now. There will be wind with this second system as
a strong high pressure center moves across the Plains. There is a concern
for blowing snow if enough snowfalls. Again, the 12Z EC is drier, so
time and evolving details with bear this out. Regardless, it still looks
much colder next week. ECE guidance keeps Dodge in the 20s next week,
which is colder than what fb produces. Wait and see, but the trend is
there.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

The atmosphere will continue to moisten from the top down through the
pd. As a result, expect gradually decreasing cigs with IFR conditions
likely by tomorrow morning. Showers/snow showers will be possible as
well through the overnight pd. Winds will be fairly light 5-10 kt and
from the NE to E.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  37  26  50 /  50  40  20   0
GCK  28  38  23  49 /  40  20  10   0
EHA  26  36  22  49 /  60  20  10   0
LBL  30  35  25  49 /  70  50  20   0
HYS  30  40  26  50 /  20  20  10   0
P28  36  44  33  53 /  40  50  50   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden


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