Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

A thick cirrus canopy continues to overspread the plains tonight.
Otherwise, the dry and quiet weather continues. Between the cirrus
and the atmosphere continuing to warm at 850 mb, temperatures will
be much milder Friday morning compared to recent days. Most
locales will easily hold in the 20s.

Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures will be enjoyed on
Friday, with maximum readings averaging 20-25 degrees above
normal. 850 mb temperatures in the +17C range will support
widespread 60s, with some lower 70s sprinkled across the SW zones.
As warm as this is, the record highs (in the 70s) appear mostly
safe. Cirrus will gradually thin with time, as flow aloft becomes
more zonal, encouraging the mild afternoon temperatures. Afternoon
SW winds will average 10-20 mph, then weaken and become southerly
near sunset, ahead of a 1000 mb leeside surface low in SE
Colorado. A mild airmass continues tonight, keeping morning lows
Saturday morning above normal, mainly in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 125 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

The U.S. drought monitor on Thursday`s update continued to expand
the severe and extreme drought designations, with the driest
conditions residing across the southern half of SW Kansas. This
will continue to be the big developing story, as prospects for
significant drought relief continue to look bleak (especially
south of the Arkansas River where it is needed the most).

Saturday...Unseasonably mild temperatures will continue, as the
approaching storm system organizes near Las Vegas. As the primary
surface cyclone organizes over SE Colorado, a stationary boundary
will separate the warm 60s and 70s across the SW 1/2 of the CWA,
from cooler 50s across the NE zones. Dry weather will continue.

Sunday...Model track guidance for the approaching storm has
waivered very little, lending confidence regarding this storm`s
expected impacts. 00z ECMWF tracks a 543 dm closed low near the
Four Corners 6 am Sunday, deepening it to a 540 dm closed low near
Garden City 6 pm Sunday. The cyclone is still progged to intensify
as it passes the region, down to 538 dm near Hays by midnight.
The same forecast philosophy holds, as this track will essentially
dryslot the southern zones, and keep snow amounts across the
northern zones relatively modest. QPF/ storm total snow grids
currently carry about 1" of accumulation across the far north,
with much less than one inch elsewhere. This matches well with
00z ECMWF QPF output, so again confidence is rather high. Along
with WFOs Goodland/Hastings, included a mention of blowing snow
for some areas Sunday night. Snow amounts will be low (< 2" as it
seems now) but strong winds will reduce visibility in open areas.
This would be especially true along the I-70 corridor (Trego/Ellis
counties) for several hours Sunday night, immediately behind the
departing/intensifying upper low. A winter weather advisory still
appears probable for this area Sunday night. Any deviation in
track to the south would increase impacts, but model trends are
not showing any signs of a southward adjustment.

Little if any cold air advection is indicated behind this storm
system. As such, afternoon temperatures will remain fairly
constant, and not too far from normal, in the 40s and lower 50s
for several days next week. Another several days of dry weather
is expected Monday through Thursday, with the mildest
temperatures on Thursday.

00z ECMWF swings another strong progressive cyclone into the
plains next Friday. Canadian/GFS model blend suggests some pops
for this time frame, but ECMWF just shows another familiar dryslot
with a bunch of wind. Until storm systems can trend slower and
further south, drought conditions across the central/southern
plains will continue to worsen.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

VFR will continue with variable amounts of cirrus. Light
SW winds will again prevail, becoming modestly gusty at
12-22 kts after 15z. Winds will diminish and back more southerly
around 00z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  27  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  68  27  65  27 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  32  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  68  28  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  26  53  27 /   0   0   0  10
P28  61  30  61  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner



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