Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS65 KFGZ 232051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
151 PM MST Sun Oct 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing moisture will combine with a passing
weather system to cause chances for showers and thunderstorms
through Monday night. Drier and warmer air arrives Tuesday, with
above normal temperatures expected for much of the week. Another
chance of showers arrives late in the week and into the early part
of the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...For tonight, model forecasts continue to forecast
a plume of low level moisture originating from the Gulf of
California to slide northward across Mohave, and western Yavapai
and Coconino counties. With that said, most high resolution
guidance shows only isolated storms associated with this moisture
push. As a result, mainly low chances for showers and
thunderstorms are forecast west of line from Payson to Flagstaff
to Page.

On Monday, better moisture arrives from west to east as the Gulf
of California plume combines with a secondary push of moisture
originating from the east Pacific. This moisture will combine with
forcing from a passing shortwave trough to cause increasing
chances for storms across all of northern Arizona. On Tuesday,
chances for storms decrease as the atmosphere stabilizes on the
backside of the trough.

On Wednesday and Thursday, heights quickly rebound as an upper-
level ridge builds across northern Arizona. This will cause a
period of dry weather and increasing daytime temperatures. From
Friday onward, model uncertainty becomes quite high. A few
deterministic and ensemble model forecasts predict that a
shortwave trough may clip the region causing some convective
activity around Friday/Saturday. At this point, the forecast calls
for only slight chances for storms during this time.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z forecast...VFR conditions are expected to
continue over the next 12 hrs and will deteriorate afterwards. Some
isolated showers will be possible mainly west of a line from Page to
Show Low. Lowering ceilings and increasing showers will develop and
spread from west to east Monday with intrusions into MVFR and IFR
possible near the stronger showers and storms. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.