000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH WITH
THIS EVENT...WITH MOST SNOWFALL FALLING ABOVE 8000 FEET. SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED 400 MILES WEST OF ENSENADA BAJA CA
THIS MORNING. DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO ARIZONA WILL CAUSE
CLOUD BASES TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY.

BASED ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THE LOW CENTER IS SHOWN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TO NEAR LAS VEGAS NV AT 5 PM FRIDAY. THE PATH OF THE LOW CENTER
BRINGS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
MODERATE OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO START FROM 8500 TO 9000
FEET TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY FROM 8000 FEET NEAR THE UTAH BORDER TO 8500
TO 9000 FEET IN YAVAPAI, NORTHERN GILA, SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DOWN TO THE 7000 TO 7500 FOOT
LEVEL. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BELOW 8500.
ABOVE 8500 FEET THOUGH STORM TOTALS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE.

ON SATURDAY, THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD BACK INTO
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR ALL AS NORTHEAST FLOW
WRAPS MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL / LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT RANGE FROM 0.5 INCH
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO 2.0 INCHES OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AND HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. AFTER FRIDAY 00Z...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 8500 FEET FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONE 017 FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF