000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011224
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
520 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY. FAIR AND MILD WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS STILL OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM AS IT HAS SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SHOWERS CONTINUE
THERE NOW. TOTAL RAINFALL HAS ALREADY REACHED 2 INCHES AT SEVERAL
SITES ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM JUST NORTH OF PAYSON. RAINFALL
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE THERE TODAY...BUT INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY.
FARTHER WEST...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF LIFT AND JET SUPPORT FROM CENTRAL YAVAPAI
THROUGH THE FLAGSTAFF REGION. SNOW LEVELS IN THIS BAND ARE NEAR 6500
FEET...WITH SOME RAPID ACCUMULATION OF WET SNOW OCCURRING (3 INCHES
AT BELLEMONT AT 5 AM). EXPECTING THIS BAND TO PIVOT SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN YAVAPAI/COCONINO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE A BIT LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT TO 7500-8000 FEET IN THE FLAGSTAFF AREA...UP TO 8500 FEET
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE STATE FROM
WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BAND...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING RAPIDLY BELOW 6000 FEET
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR AREAS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM INCLUDING
FLAGSTAFF...A GENERAL 3 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE RIM MONDAY...AND
THE WHITE MTNS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MANY AREAS FROM FLAGSTAFF
WESTWARD WILL REACH THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY IN THE
MORNING...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES BY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND A
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE FOR AREAS ABOVE 6000
FEET.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF 2-4+
INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM NORTH OF PAYSON.
1.5 TO LOCALLY 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF YAVAPAI
COUNTY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES TO
STREAMS AND RIVERS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN
GILA COUNTIES.

A TRAILING SHORTWAVE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TUESDAY BUT THIS
LOOKS MOSTLY LIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT AREAS
FROM KFLG/KSEZ WEST TO KGCN THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT MVFR/IFR IN THESE AREAS THIS
WITH LOCAL LIFR IN SHSN ABOVE 6000-6500 FT MSL. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
IN CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FOCUS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTS WEST OF A KGCN-KPRC LINE. IN
ADDITION...WARMER AIR ADVANCING NORTHWARD WILL RAISE SNOW LEVELS
ROUGHLY 1000 FT BY THIS EVENING WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO SEE
RAIN SHOWERS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ004 ABOVE 6000 FEET.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF