Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 162233

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
333 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A period of mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures will continue through Thursday, though a few
sprinkles are possible tonight. A stronger storm will bring gusty
winds and sharply colder temperatures to the region heading into
the weekend, along with a chance of rain and snow showers.


A weak disturbance will push through northern Arizona tonight,
with notable cloudiness, but only a slight chance of light
showers into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, high pressure will
quickly re-establish itself across the region through Thursday,
with dry and unseasonably warm temperatures returning.

A more notable shift from the calm, dry, and warm weather pattern
will arrive by Friday and the weekend. Strong and gusty southwest
winds will develop on Friday in advance of this next storm system.
Rapidly dropping temps and chances for rain and snow showers are
anticipated to take shape Friday night and Saturday as the cold
front pushes across the Northland. Those will travel
considerations on Saturday should continue to monitor upcoming
and evolving snowfall forecasts across the high country.

The remainder of the forecast period currently looks dry, but
still a bit unsettled, with temps moderating back up a bit.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions and light winds
generally under 10 kts will continue over the next 24 hours. A
passing weather system will lead to increasing clouds today with
slight chance of isolated showers from the Mogollon Rim northward
overnight. Skies tonight will be broken to overcast at 4000 to
6000 feet above ground level in the vicinity of these showers.
Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weak passing low pressure system will bring
increased clouds, and a slight chance of showers along and north
of the Mogollon Rim overnight. Wetting rain is not likely. Winds
will be generally light. Mild conditions continue on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...A strong low pressure system will bring
strong southwest winds Friday and Saturday, 15-20 mph gusting
25-35 mph. A chance for showers and much colder temperatures on
Saturday with the snow level possibly dropping to 3500 feet by
Saturday afternoon. Colder temperatures will stay through Sunday
with northwesterly winds 10 to 15 mph.






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