Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 300351
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
851 PM MST SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH STORM ACTIVITY TOWARD THE EASTERN ARIZONA
BORDER. THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL DRY
OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUNDAY. THIS IS ALL WELL REPRESENTED IN CURRENT FORECAST...WITH NO
MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /325 PM MST/...IT TOOK AWHILE...BUT A MORE
MOISTURE RICH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS FINALLY MOVED FROM
YAVAPAI COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COCONINO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH AN IMPROVING DYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILE
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TONIGHT.

THE HIGHEST PW VALUES...DYNAMICS AND SHEAR WILL COME TOGETHER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WE WILL HAVE A FAR GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL PUSH EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH THE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTING TO APACHE
COUNTY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF MVFR CIG/IFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/PETERSON
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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