000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312236
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
336 PM MST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE DAY HAS TRANSPIRED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN COCONINO
COUNTY. STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM
AND HAVE BEEN PRODUCING OUTFLOWS THAT PROPAGATE TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. STORMS HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE AND HEAVY RAIN WITH A LOW THREAT OF SMALL
HAIL. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION IS WEST TO EAST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH. LOCAL AREAS HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH STORM MOTION IS
GENERALLY LIMITING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. EXPECT THE FOCUS OF
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING WESTWARD ACROSS
COCONINO AND NORTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTIES WITH SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES FRIDAY AND MORE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER
THE WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL AGAIN FRIDAY FOR TRAVELING OUTFLOWS TO CONTINUE ACTIVITY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE RIM
WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATEST.

OVER THE WEEKEND...NORTHERN ARIZONA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH MOVING FROM NORTHERN BAJA NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS GENERATES A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A MARKED INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AN IN
TURN COOLER TEMPERATURES. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 02Z...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. MVFR
VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
SCT/NMRS TSRA WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY...MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF