Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 290507

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1005 PM MST WED SEP 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
across northern Arizona through Friday as weak low pressure moves
across the region. Drier air is expected this weekend...followed by
increasing southwest winds from a passing weather system early next


.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across
northern Arizona this evening...moving northward at around 20 MPH.
This activity will slowly decrease tonight...but some storms will
continue through the night. Will update forecast to extend chance
of precipitation west and northward tonight.


.PREV DISCUSSION /358 PM MST/...So far today, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms have impacted much of northern Arizona.
Storms have generally lacked substantial vertical development, but
radar indicated a few rotating storms just east of Flagstaff. The
forecast calls for decreasing convective activity this evening,
however, isolated showers will be possible overnight - especially in
far northern Arizona.

Moisture continues to increase on Thursday as the upper-level low
lifts to the northeast and a trough approaches the region from the
southwest. As a result, good chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue. By Friday, the trough crosses the
state with a drier westerly wind setting up behind the
disturbance. With that said, at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast across much of northern Arizona.

The weekend will be dry with increasing westerly flow ahead of a
developing trough over the west coast. Models are trending toward
the western US low passing to our north Monday, bringing gusty
winds and pushing a cold front through. Some shower activity may
accompany the trough, but the best dynamics look to be north of
the area.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Widely scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA
will continue through the night. Local MVFR possible throughout the
night. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop after 17Z
thursday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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