000
FXUS65 KFGZ 110328
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA BRINGING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT WINDS AND A FRIGID AIR MASS ALLOWED FOR RECORD
(OR NEAR RECORD) COLD AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TUESDAY MORNING. FLAGSTAFF SET A NEW RECORD AT 10 BELOW
ZERO...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 5 BELOW SET BACK IN 2009. PRESCOTT
AIRPORT ALSO TIED A RECORD...BOTTOMING OUT AT 10 DEGREES.

OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE
STATE AHEAD OF A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN
DIEGO. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL FILL OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

ONE FACTOR TO NOTE...TEMPERATURES FROM ONE TO TWO THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND HAVE WARMED CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES IN THE PAST 24
HOURS AS THE TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS
SHIFTED EAST. HIGHER ELEVATION SITES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX INTO SOME
OF THIS WARMER AIR...WHILE LOWER ELEVATION SITES ARE STUCK BELOW THE
INVERSION IN THE COLD AIR. FOR EXAMPLE...BELLEMONT AT 7200 FT
REACHED 43 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWER ELEVATION PLACES
LIKE SAINT JOHNS...WINSLOW AND PAGE HAVE STAYED IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
SLIGHTLY...BUT INVERSIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BREAK IN THE VALLEYS
NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM SO COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THERE.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS ARIZONA. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM AND THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...BUT THIS
WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS INDICATING LOW
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY HIGH...ALTHOUGH SOME REMAINING
COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA COULD RESULT IN SOME
LOCALLY LOWER LEVELS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT (1 INCH
OR LESS) AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFF THE WEST COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS.
WITH THE ABRUPT WARMING ALOFT...VALLEY INVERSIONS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...SO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THERE ARE
TRICKY...KEPT THEM SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/JJ
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF