809
FXUS65 KFGZ 251013
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
313 AM MST Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect another round of cold temperatures Monday
morning, with dry conditions and mostly clear skies forecast
throughout the day. Dry and cool conditions persist on Tuesday,
but a passing low will bring chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms to the area from Wednesday through the end of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Cool and dry conditions are expected for the first half of the
week as a large scale upper level trough remains in place over the
Rocky Mountains. This is expected to remain in place through the
week, with limited

By midweek a shortwave disturbance will move through the trough
and deepen as it moves across the trough axis over the Four
Corners region. Current model outputs have most of the moisture
over New Mexico from Wednesday onwards with more scattered
precipitation over Northern Arizona. Multiple model runs, with
agreement between different forecast models have continued to
favor this solution.

There is an outlying chance that the trough moves back towards
the Arizona-California border and more moisture however this is
becoming less likely with each subsequent run showing the more
eastward precipitation shield.

By next weekend the ridge looks to finally move eastward as an
induced shortwave ridge looks to develop between troughs over the
area early next week. While confidence is low in timing and
location of this feature it could signify a pattern change to a
more zonal wind field over Northern Arizona by next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will prevail
over northern Arizona through the TAF period. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions, light winds, and below normal
temperatures will continue through Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, with the highest chances over
Apache and Navajo counties. Expect clearing conditions from west to
east starting Thursday night.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Suk
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff