Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190434
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
938 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&
.DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OVER CENTRAL NAVAJO
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...RADAR IS RATHER QUIET. WILL ADJUST
POPS UPWARD OVER NAVAJO COUNTY AND DOWNWARD IN OTHER AREAS FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /318 PM MST/...SO FAR TODAY...THERE HAS BEEN
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND SOUTHERN COCONINO
COUNTIES. A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GILA COUNTY. THE DECLINE IN ACTIVITY TODAY CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WHATS LEFT OF ODILE...AND AN
INTRUSION OF DRY...WARM MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
TOMORROW...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO CAUSE FURTHER
DRYING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...IN THE VICINITY OF
THE GRAND CANYON. THIS WILL EQUATE TO ANOTHER DAY OF RATHER LIMITED
CONVECTION.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TO THE NORTHEAST AFFECTING NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY...RAISING MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
AND ADDED DYNAMIC LIFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY LEADING TO
DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLATED
MVFR CONDITIONS CLOSEST TO THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 1-3Z FRIDAY. POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF WDLY SCT
SHRA/TSRA AFT 19Z FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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