


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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931 FXUS65 KFGZ 131723 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1023 AM MST Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures to continue into early next week. Moisture will be sparse, with only isolated or scattered activity through Monday. A gradual uptick in moisture is forecast during the course of next week, with a potential for very wet conditions by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Today...High pressure continues to remain in place off the California coast. Things continues to stream drier air into the region with drier air aloft. Some mid-level moisture does look to try to undercut the high this afternoon, potentially allowing for some isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop. However, given the dry sub-cloud layer and subsidence inversion, it will be difficult for much of any precipitation to materialize. The latest hi-res guidance seems to mostly focus the greatest chances for precipitation this afternoon across the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim, with a secondary cluster near the Coconino Plateau. Gusty winds will be the main threats with any storm. Monday and Tuesday... he high looks to gradually shift eastward through the week, which should allow for monsoonal moisture to move northward into Arizona through the week. As a result, daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms look to increase each day. The main threats with any of these storms initially will be gusty winds given the still very dry sub-cloud layer. Coverage will mainly be focused over the higher terrain, with some additional development possible off the terrain as convective becomes forced by outflow boundaries. Additionally, with the high still in place, temperatures look to remain on the warm side each day. As a result, an Extreme Heat Warning remains for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon. Wednesday through Saturday...By the middle of next week, a more traditional synoptic pattern with weak troughing over the Gulf of California and ridging to the east. This should allow for deeper monsoonal moisture to take hold over the area, with more areawide chances setting in for the second-half of next week. Temperatures also look to decrease some, with cooler, more typical highs expected. && .AVIATION...Sunday 13/18Z through Monday 14/18Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA from 19Z to 03Z, mainly along and then south of a KPRC-KFLG-KSJN line. Daytime sfc winds varying from SW-NW at5-15g20kts. Gusty and erratic outflow winds possible in and around convective showers. OUTLOOK...Monday 14/18Z through Wednesday 16/18Z...VFR conditions outside of convective activity. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA each afternoon and evening, especially over/near higher terrain. Storm activity may produce brief MVFR conditions. Daytime winds variable 5-15g20kts on Monday, then generally W-SW at the same speeds during Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusty and erratic outflow winds possible in and around convective showers. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Slight chance of mainly dry thunderstorms and possibly a brief shower over the higher terrain each afternoon. Winds west/northwest 5-15 mph, with gusts to around 20 mph each afternoon. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorms. Tuesday through Thursday...Cooling temperatures. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase each day, most numerous over the higher terrain. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day, with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorms. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ006. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff