Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 190255
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
955 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING TO AN END ACROSS
MUCH OF SE TX. THERE IS STILL SOME ACTIVITY OVER C TX WHICH SEEMS
TO BE DISSIPATING EXCEPT FOR ONE STRONG STORM EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS EVOLUTION.
BOTH MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
MAINLY SOUTH OF BRENHAM TOWARDS COLORADO/AUSTIN COUNTIES. ACTIVITY
THEN SPREADS ALONG A BOUNDARY TOWARDS HOUSTON/GALVESTON LATER IN
THE MORNING. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL A VERY MOIST TROPICAL
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2-2.3
INCHES...AND NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROUGH AXIS PASSING BY...THINK
HEAVY RAINFALL STILL A THREAT FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND POSSIBLY
EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN AN HOUR WHICH WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WOULD CAUSE
FLOODING FROM RUNOFF. DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WATCH FOR A FEW
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH OF HOUSTON BUT WILL MAINTAIN WATCH FOR
BRENHAM...HOUSTON...GALVESTON SOUTHWARD. MAIN CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO ADJUST POPS/WX GRIDS FOR THIS SCENARIO AND ADJUST
MAX TEMPS. COULD BE A DAY IN WHICH THERE IS JUST ENOUGH HEATING TO
SUPPORT STORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REACH UPPER 80S. UPDATED FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN SENT AND NEW FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL SHRA OVERHEAD OF CLL HOLDING
VISIBILITY DOWN AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT
WITH LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AGAIN EARLY
FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH COVERAGE AS TODAY SO WILL KEEP ONLY VICINITY
MENTION FOR MOST SITES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  86  72  90  73 /  50  50  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  86  72  89  74 /  50  60  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  85  77  86  79 /  70  70  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39


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