Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 060511
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1111 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND A
COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AT KGLS THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.
THIS WILL HELP SLOWLY DIMINISH THE WINDS AT KGLS ON FRIDAY...WITH
THE WINDS EXPECTED TO LOSE GUST CHARACTERISTICS BY AROUND 18Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED CENTRAL TEXAS. SKIES
ARE GENERALLY CLEAR BUT SOME CIRRUS WAS STREAMING TOWARD SE TX
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM WERE ALREADY DOWN TO 34
DEGREES AT CALDWELL AND 36 DEGREES AT COLLEGE STATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHTS RAIN
AND THE APPROACHING CIRRUS SHOULD HELP MODERATE A TEMPERATURE FREE
FALL. IT WILL STILL GET COLD AND FREEZING TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. WINTER JUST WON`T LOSE ITS GRIP.
THE LAST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR SE TX OCCURRED ON FEB 26TH AND
FREEZING TEMPS HAVE OCCURRED IN NOV...DEC...JAN AND FEB. HAVE
TWEAKED TEMPS TO GO SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ZONES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER EAST PRIMARILY FOR WET GROUND AND CIRRUS
SHIELD.

LOOKING AHEAD...SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK INTERESTING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE BIG BEND AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SW.
JET DYNAMICS LOOK IMPRESSIVE AND MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE QUICKLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DEVELOP RAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH THE RAIN PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SE TX. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      25  50  34  56  40 /  10  10  10  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              29  52  34  58  42 /  10  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            35  50  43  53  49 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40


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