Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 010448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS INLAND HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN BUT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT GLS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

UPDATE...
INLAND NORTH BREEZE DYING DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ALL
HALLOW`S EVE...MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 20...GUST TO 25...KTS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. A WEAK WIND FIELD
WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE THE DROP OF TEMPERATURE WITHIN THIS DRY AIR
MASS. AVERAGE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40 DEW POINTS...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...
EQUATES TO MANY INLAND SATURDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW 45F (MID 50S AT COAST). NOVEMBER BEGINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT EASTERLIES...SATURDAY AFTERNOON WARMING UP INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. AFTER A VERY CHILLED SUNDAY MORNING...THE WEEKEND WILL
END WITH MOSTLY SUNNY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS BREEZES
VEER ONSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGHING
WITH SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ONSHORE FLOW
MONDAY. HEIGHTENED MOISTURE LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. NWP MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN PHASE WITH THE TIMING/PROGRESSION OF A MID
WEEK WESTERN UPPER LOW (ECMWF) OR SOUTHERN PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH
(GFS) SCENARIO...BUT BOTH DO AGREE THAT A TROUGH AXIS WILL HANG BACK
TO THE WEST LONG ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM SECTOR/25H RR QUAD
OVER SE TX THAT WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS SHOULD END WITH SUNDOWN AND WIND
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE NIGHT. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  65  40  72  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              45  67  41  71  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            54  65  54  70  65 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...38



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