Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011742
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1242 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE MSOTLY LIFTED BACK INTO VFR TERRITORY. UPPER DISTURBANCE
MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTN. SHOULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA
& MAYBE AN ISO TSRA OR TWO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OVER SE TX. THIS
IMPULSE HEADS ENE THIS EVENING AND WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
TEMPORARY CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. LOW STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY FILL
BACK IN OVERNIGHT HOWEVER. GENERALLY WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTIONS REGARDING CIG/VISBY HEIGHTS TONIGHT AS ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AND BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER S TX SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE GULF/SE TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS/COMPOSITE MAP HAS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S TO LOW 70S. AREA RADAR SHOW
CONVECTION OVER S TX THAT SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOTH CRP/LCH 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR IN 850-700MB LAYER THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME TO SUPPORT
MORE WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION. LATEST RAP/HRRR SHOW THAT THIS MAY
HAPPEN BUT DRY AIR WILL IMPACT RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES. THINK CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z
THUR THIS EVENING FOR THE HOUSTON AREA. ONLY REAL CHANGES TO THE
FOREACST WERE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST BASED ON
SHORT RANGE MODELS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  66  84  68  79 /  50  20  20  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  68  84  70  82 /  40  20  20  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  69  78  70  79 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


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