000
FXUS64 KHGX 191737
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND. THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS COMING IN OFF THE GULF...NOT
SURE CLOUD HEIGHTS ON THOSE...BUT WILL KNOW SHORTLY AS THEY COME
ASHORE. LOW CEILINGS FROM LAST NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY 1000 TO
1500 FOOT DECK...MIXED OUT BETWEEN 13 UTC AND 15 UTC...OR 08 TO 10
CDT...THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...WITH SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN AND
MOISTURE PROFILES...EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH THE FORMATION OF
A STRATUS DECK AFTER SUNSET. IN ANYTHING...LOW DECK COULD DEVELOP
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER...GIVEN LACK OF CIRRUS THAT WE HAD LAST
NIGHT...AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAF. MONDAY...SHOULD SEE
LOWER DECK MIX OUT AGAIN...ABOUT THE SAME TIMING. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD CAP OVERHEAD OF SE TX THIS MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE CAP WERE DISSIPATING AT 10 AM AND
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE WAS KEEPING A FAIRLY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. THE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO ERODE MUCH OF THE CAP...BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION ABOVE 850 MB TO LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. DO LIKE THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH GOES ABOVE THE
GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE SMOKE AND HAZE
APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND WOULD EXPECT THIS GIVEN THAT
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS NOT MOVED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  73  92  73  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  73  91  73  90 /  10  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  73  79  74  80 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$