Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 260840
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY HEAVY AND SLOW MOVING RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING HAS LED TO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN AND AROUND PORTIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY AND FORT
BEND COUNTY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 3 AND ALMOST 11 INCHES
HAVE CAUSED MANY AREA RIVERS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS TO OVERFLOW WHICH
HAS SHUT DOWN AREA FREEWAYS AND PLACED WATER IN AREA HOMES AND BUSINESSES.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM UP AS THE STORM COMPLEX
EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 AM WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES ON OUT. WILL KEEP SOME 20%-30%
POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST IN CASE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS. HAVE NOT
SPENT A LOT OF TIME LOOKING BEYOND TODAY`S FORECAST THAT HAS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN INCREASING
NUMBERS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

STAY SAFE OUT THERE! 42
&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHEN THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.

MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING DROPPED BY 8AM AND SCEC FLAGS
BEING LOWERED BY NOON.

TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER THE TIDE
LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
WEEK.   44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A SOLID LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRACTICALLY
STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
KIAH IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION AND SHOULD
TOGGLE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHOU
AND KSGR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOLID MVFR/IFR AS THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THOSE TERMINALS. OF CONCERN IS THE
CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA.

KLBX AND KGLS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF TIMING THE LINE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. I HAVE FORECAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
EXTEND THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS BY 08Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO ARE VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL BE PREVAILING VFR BY MID-
MORNING WHILE THE EASTERN TERMINALS FACE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. STRONG ON-SHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  73  87  72  86 /  30  20  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  73  88  74  87 /  30  20  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  77  86  78  85 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM CDT THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44


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