Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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828
FXUS64 KHGX 311009
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
509 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The regional weather pattern will continue to be influenced by
the north central Gulf high pressure cell. Western convective
cirrus blow off again streaming across eastern Texas...keeping
many communities fog free despite the calm wind field afforded by
this eastern high. Rain and storm chances will be higher today
from either a more active sea breeze or from getting clipped by a
possible south central Texas eastern propagating MCS. Although
overall column moisture is relatively lower than in previous days
(moisture ridge focused over the Rio Grande River Valley)...there
will still be enough available moisture to tap into if western
outflow or advecting upstream convection enters our west-southwest
CWA latter this afternoon. The background environment is ripe for
convection with near 2k CAPE and achievable convective temperatures
in the middle 80s. Low shear values indicate that any mesoscale-
driven thunderstorm activity have lower chances of strengthening
to severe. Today will be somewhat of a transition day from a
string of dry days to a string of consecutively wet days as the
upper low/trough over the Desert Southwest/Northwest Mexico slowly
advances east into the New Mexico/Trans Pecos region by tomorrow
afternoon.

This forecast package continues the line of thought that periods
of light to moderate rain...locally heavy...will likely impact our
area from mid week on into the weekend. The entire `event` will be
solely dependent upon the eastern movement of this aforementioned
upper low/trough. As of this morning...this system is still modeled
to slowly meander over the state from Wednesday through the weekend.
All signs point to the main threat being of heavy rain episodes
leading to continued southeast Texas flooding...from the upper
levels to the surface. Lift to be provided by a series of weak
disturbances passing up ahead of the main low within a greater than
1.75 inch pwat regional unstable downstream air mass displaying 0-3
km 7-8 C lapse rates. With the upper low nestled in over south
central state...the upper divergence will also be impressive.
Storm motion is also modeled to become slower in time...with the
decline of Corfidi vectors each subsequent day from mid-week onward.
Thus...all of the above is evidence to this ongoing message of an
early June high rainfall event that will likely exacerbate flooding
somewhere in our forecast area. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow, generally between 10-15kt, should persist for much of
the work week with seas mainly <5ft. A series of upper disturbances
are forecast to move overhead during the second half of the week -so
periods of unsettled wx can be expected at times. A weak frontal
boundary may approach the coast later this weekend but there is
considerable uncertainty in regards to timing and whether the
boundary eventually moves off the coast or not.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
There is some patchy fog beginning to develop - generally outside
the metro area. This should burn off fairly quickly after sunrise.
Otherwise mostly VFR conditions for the remainder of the day.
Exception will be in/near scattered aftn tstms that develop as a
combination of daytime heating, an upper impulse and seabreeze work
their magic. Can`t rule out some isolated strong cells during the
mid/late aftn hours & plan on keeping the VCTS`s already in place.
Convection should mostly dissipate this evening followed by some
MVFR cigs filling in overnight. Unfortunately, a more unsettled wx
pattern takes shape from midweek into the weekend.  47

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      88  71  84  70  82 /  30  30  60  70  70
Houston (IAH)              89  71  86  71  84 /  20  10  50  50  70
Galveston (GLS)            85  76  84  75  84 /  10  10  30  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31/47



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