000
FXUS64 KHGX 102033
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW ADVANCING OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO`S COAHUILA/NUEVO
LEON`S PROVINCES THIS EVENING AND SKIRTING OUR CWA EARLY THROUGH
MID TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIFT GENERATED BY THIS VICINITY LOW WILL
KEEP POPS HIGH GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10...BUT IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE. 12Z SOUNDINGS HAVE
DISPLAYED AN OVERALL DRYING TREND AND...DEPENDENT UPON THE POSITIONING
OF THIS LOW`S/TROUGH AXIS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFULENCE MAY NOT WORK IN
FAVOR OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. AS OF NOW...MORE COASTAL AND MARITIME
REGIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL WITHIN A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AND THIS WOULD
FAVOR MORE LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN. AS OF NOW...QPF RANGES FROM CENTRAL
CWA UNDER A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH AVERAGE HALF INCH AMOUNTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST (LOCALIZED INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITHIN TRAINING BANDS)
DURING THE LATE EVENING THROUGH NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS.
A WEAK CLOSED OFF LOW...OR OPEN WAVE TROUGH...QUICKLY EXITS EAST
BY NOON TOMORROW AND RAIN WILL RAPIDLY CEASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH
MID-MORNING. FOG HAS BEEN A NUISANCE OF LATE WITH INLAND RADIATIVE
FOG FORMING UNDER OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING AND NOW THE SUDDEN
EMERGENCE AND INLAND APPROACH OF GULF SEA FOG OVER GALVESTON ISLAND
BEACHES. WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE AND WILL KEEP CWA-WIDE AREAS
OF FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING`S TROUGH PASSAGE.

CLEARING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER CONDITIONS...MANY REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS TIMED TO PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTO...WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THAT DAY
AS NORTHERLIES ARE FORECAST TO BE SUSTAINED IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO HAVE QUITE THE PUNCH AS 85H
TEMPS COOL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND PROG SOUNDINGS DEPICT
DRIER AIR IN THE 20S AT AROUND 900 MB. CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY SHOULD
MIX THIS FAIRLY DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE AND LOWER AFTERNOON DEW
POINT/RHS INTO THE 20S AND 30S. WINDS SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP RED FLAG WARNINGS AT BAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TEXAS FALLS UNDER A NEAR-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK...
RELATIVELY COOLER AFTERNOONS ONLY WARMING INTO THE 60S AFTER A
COUPLE OF CHILLED MORNINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS DIVERGENT
UPON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT WESTERN TROUGH/COLD FROPA OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SOMETIME
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ECMWF
TRENDING TOWARDS STRENGTHENING A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AXIS
NORTHEASTWARD AND FORCING A BROAD 5H TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. THE ECMWF WANTS TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH SUNDAY...
INTRODUCING MORE QPF WHILE THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION TAKES A MORE
SHALLOW TROUGH EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS
ENOUGH NWP DISAGREEMENT TO JUST STICK WITH BOOKMARK SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW...OR UNTIL THE WHOLE SUITE COMES BETTER IN- LINE WITH
HOW EVENTS WILL UNFOLD NEXT WEEKEND. 31

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MOST OF GALVESTON
BAY...THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND PARTS OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
BETWEEN FREEPORT AND HIGH ISLAND. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO BELOW
A NAUTICAL MILE AT TIMES. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THE WIND COULD/SHOULD PUSH THE FOG AWAY FROM
THE GALVESTON BAY REGION TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE FOG COULD
LINGER THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
COAST.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EAST OF BROWNSVILLE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
OVER THE MARINE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. 43

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      53  76  50  57  35 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              54  75  55  62  39 /  40  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  71  58  62  46 /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43