Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHGX 010304
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1004 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND
TO COLUMBUS...WITH ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN HOUSTON AND JUST
NORTH OF WHARTON. THE BEST MOISTURE WAS WELL OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DID DEVELOP EARLIER THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WEST OF WHARTON. BECAUSE OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP
ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE POPS AND WEATHER.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT. BASED ON SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE GONE WITH LOW STRATUS DECK TONIGHT FOR
ALL BUT NORTHERNMOST TAFS...CXO AND UTS...GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALREADY HAVE A LOWER DECK IMPACTING LBX AND GLS.
TOMORROW WITH A FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND DESTABILIZATION DURING
THE DAY THINK WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT LATE MORNING ALSO POSSIBLE
SOUTHERN TAFS. HAVE GONE VCTS AFTERNOON NORTH...AND PROB30 TS
SOUTH ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS - LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
SUNNY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHED THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
COASTAL TROUGHING ALONG THE LOWER COAST EXTENDING UP INTO SETX
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CALDWELL TO NAVASOTA TO
HUMBLE TO DEVERS. SAN JACINTO COUNTY GOT THE WORST OF IT PER RAIN
GAGES BUT HOUSTON COUNTY HAD SOME COPIOUS RAINFALL AS WELL. RAWS
STATION IN SAN JAC COUNTY MEASURED 6.21". QUITE A FEW 2-4" AMOUNTS
IN MONTGOMERY/SAN JACINTO/POLK/HOUSTON COUNTIES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING INTO
BURLESON/BRAZOS/MADISON COUNTIES AT 3 PM. AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ORDER FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERHAPS SOUTHWEST MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS WITH STRONGER LL CONVERGENCE
BUT CAP IS STRONGER THERE PROBABLY PRECLUDING TSRA. LIGHT WIND
REGIME NEAR THE COAST AND LOWERING SEAS SHOULD ALLOW THE ELEVATED
TIDE LEVELS TO RECEDE A LITTLE TO THE POINT OF NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS SO WILL LET THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR GALVESTON BAY
AREA EXPIRE AT 6 PM. OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLIM WITH LOSS
OF HEATING AND RELAXING WINDS. SUNDAY THE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE
NW AREAS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD WITH
APPROACH OF A S/W AND LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP...WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
STORMS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
AREA...SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MAY GET A FEW SLOW MOVING STRONG
ONES BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND AM INCLINED
TO FAVOR THE DRIER SOLUTIONS SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO 35-50 PERCENT
RANGE WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH (WHERE WEAKER CAP MAY BE)
TAPERING DOWN TOWARD THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT STARTS MOVING SOUTH AND STRONGER S/W TRACKS THROUGH THE
AREA AND MAY SEE A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS IN A NORTH TO
SOUTH LINE AND MARCH THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR MAY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IF THIS PANS OUT THE RAIN
CHANCES MAY NEED LOWERING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WOULD PROBABLY
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AS WELL AS ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET OFFSHORE.
IF THE CLUSTER DOESN`T FORM THEN SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HAVE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND DROPPED DRAMATICALLY
TUESDAY GIVEN THE FRONT WILL LIKE SURGE WELL OUT INTO THE GULF
AND DRY AIR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MOISTURE FINALLY MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY COME
SUNDAY MAY 8TH.
45

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLOW DECREASE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE ELEVATED
SEAS SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH ON MONDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AND THIS OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TOWARD CAUTION LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL COME BACK TO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      68  81  66  75  58 /  10  50  60  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  83  71  80  63 /  20  50  70  60  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  80  75  81  68 /  20  40  60  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...46



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.