Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 220435
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH AN HOUR OR TWO AROUND SUNRISE WHERE NON-METRO HUBS
WILL EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS. LIGHT WINDS WILL
SWING BETWEEN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST AND REASONING (SEE DISCUSSIONS BELOW) LOOKS GOOD
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. 42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DECKS OVER MORE RURAL (NON-METRO) HUBS
BETWEEN 10-13Z ...OR A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. RELATIVELY LOWER MOISTURE TODAY WILL
PICK UP A BIT TOMORROW BUT...WITH THE REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UPPER RIDGING...CHANCES
FOR ANY MENTIONABLE CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO PLACE WITHIN FRIDAY`S
TAF PACKAGE. A WEAKENED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY LOWER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES. 31

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE/SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN OVER SE
TX THIS AFTN JUDGING BY THE DEW POINTS/LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE.
THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK (AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND) AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD THE RIDGE IN
PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT/POPS
NOT RETURNING UNTIL NEXT TUE/WED OR SO. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
NO REAL CHANGE WITH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE GRIDS (WHICH HAS
ISO/LOW POPS BACK IN STARTING EARLY MON MORNING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS).

THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEAT INDICES THIS AFTN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BUT READINGS ARE
STILL WITHIN CRITERIA FOR EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. 41

&&

MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN
TO RELAX BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  97  77  97  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  92  84  92  84 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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