Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 141600
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1000 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Considerable high cloudiness this morning across SE Texas,
Increased cloud cover for today. Expect max temps to warm
into the mid to upper 60s today. A cold front which is currently
located from near Waco to Tyler will cross the area this afternoon
and evening.

Issued a small craft advisory for the marine area late tonight
into Friday as the pressure gradient tightens along the coast and
offshore. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
One more day of quiet weather today across Southeast Texas before the
pattern becomes increasingly active as we head on into the weekend.
Lots of high clouds continue streaming across the area from the southwest,
and it is possible that these clouds could keep today`s temperatures
below expected highs. A cold front will move through during the day
today, and we will continue to carry increasing rain chances behind
the front for tonight with the lower values near the coast and the
higher values offshore. Some drier air moving into the area from the
north will help to lower rain chances on Friday and Friday night.
A northern Mexico storm system ejecting northeastward across the
state over the weekend will help to bring rain and maybe some isolated
thunderstorms to our area with the best chance currently looking like
Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Best dynamics look like
they will remain offshore, but any westward shift of this system could
edge the risk of any strong/severe storms inland. After most of the
area dries out during the day on Sunday with the exit of the system,
some rain could redevelop into Monday and Tuesday as weak and hard
to time mid/upper level disturbances move across the area under a
persistent southwest flow aloft. Currently anticipating drier/warmer
weather as we head on into the middle to end of next week.

It is still too early to correctly predict what kind of weather the
area will see over the Christmas holiday weekend.  42

MARINE...
Benign wx conditions expected today. A cold front will push off the
coast this evening with some post frontal rain developing in its
wake overnight. Winds will increase to around 25kt after midnight
and into Friday so will need SCA`s. Winds veer to the east and
expect a coastal trof/low to set up off the lower & mid Tx coast on
Sat...eventually tracking northeast up the coast and bringing some
unsettled wx across the area Sat night (winds, elevated seas,
storms and sea fog). Improving conditions on Sunday as this
disturbance pushes east of the area. However, wouldn`t be surprised
to eventually see a return of the fog sometime Sun-Mon ahead of the
next front penciled in for Tue morning. 47

AVIATION...
VFR conditions with continued mid/high level streaming overhead.
Weak frontal boundary should push north-to-south thru se TX between
18-02z. Possibly some post frontal rain developing closer to the
coast after 6z, but majority of precip should be offshore.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      65  43  58  38  57 /   0  10  10  10  30
Houston (IAH)              68  46  56  40  56 /   0  20  10  10  40
Galveston (GLS)            66  51  55  47  58 /  10  40  40  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for the
     following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...33



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