Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 301136
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF AND PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OF
SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATER THIS MORNING ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BETWEEN 85-88 IS MET.
WILL CARRY VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN 17-22Z. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS NEAR KCLL
TOWARD 01/12Z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION AND WITH A NORTHWEST/WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS /WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO/ CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF. 3 AM CDT MSAS ANALYSIS
SHOWS A THETA-E MAXIMA LOCATED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS
MORNING /WHERE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRESENTLY IS/... AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE THIS FEATURE
TOWARDS THE SABINE PASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS IN RESPONSE. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING... HIGHEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES /30 TO 40 POPS/
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SEA BREEZE
WITH COVERAGE REMAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER INLAND WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT
FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

FOR TONIGHT... EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF INLAND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH ISOLATED PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN RURAL AREAS AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING... CARRYING 20 TO 30 POPS ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /1.6-1.8
TOMORROW COMPARE TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES TODAY/ CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY
LESS COVERAGE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... BUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE EAST WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. HEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS
EXPECTED TO REACH TEXAS... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA COUPLED WITH A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE AND 2 TO
4 FEET NEAR SHORE. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  75  92  75  93 /  30  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  75  92  75  93 /  40  20  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  89  79  89 /  40  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43



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