Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 031802
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
102 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY MOST LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
GREATER INFLUENCE OF EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS
ALOFT. THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF SHEAR AXIS...WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF AFTERNOON VCSH IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. QUIET
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RETURNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG/LOW
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER AREAS THAT PICK
UP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THIS LATE WEEK WEATHER PATTERN...ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS WITHIN A MOIST ENOUGH ENVIRONMENT TO SUGGEST ONE MORE DAY
OF WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA OR -TSRA FRIDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES AT CRP ARE 1.93 AND 2.21 INCHES AT LCH. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWS A BIT MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WHILE THE LCH SOUNDING IS
SATURATED UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA. 850 MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL OVER S/SE TX AND A WEAK 850 TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL LA IN EXTREME EAST TX. A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO EAST TX. AT 250
MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPANDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
FEATURE IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART
SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MORE SO ON FRI/SAT. THAT
SAID...MOISTURE LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
30/40 POPS SHOULD COVER IT AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING HAS FOSTERED A COOLER START SO
WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO FROM MAX TEMPS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...
ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACKING
OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

&&

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.  45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  94  76  95  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  79  90  80 /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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