000
FXUS64 KHGX 220013
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
613 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS NOW HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES. BACK
EDGE OF LOWER CLOUDS LIKEWISE NOW EAST OF THE TAF SITES AS
WELL...WITH EXCEPTION OF GLS WHICH IS STILL EXPERIENCING 3000
OVC...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT THERE AS WELL. WITH CLEARING
SKY...LIGHT WINDS...WET GROUND AND STILL FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS...THINK CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
TONIGHT. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
OVER NW AREAS...INCLUDING CLL AND STARTING TO EDGE TOWARD UTS.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE FOR THOSE AREAS FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL DRIER AIR GETS INTO THE NW ZONES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT LOW
VISIBILITIES AT CXO WHICH IS OFTEN FOG PRONE. LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT
DEGREE AND EXTENT OF FOG FOR IAH...SGR...HOU AND LBX. THINK AT
LEAST PATCHY MVFR FOG A GOOD BET...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER IF
EVERYTHING FALLS OUT JUST RIGHT. FOG LESS LIKELY FOR GLS WHERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MIXING BUT EVEN THERE PATCHY WILL BE POSSIBLE. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELED TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION ARE QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S AND 60S. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE
COAST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND SEVERAL CHILLY MORNINGS TO START THE
WEEK WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED WETTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN FOR THIS EVENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN LINE
WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FORECAST. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY KEEPING US RAIN FREE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 38

MARINE...
W WINDS STILL BLOWING AT 15-25 KNOTS BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING. LINE
OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH AND SHOULD VEER WINDS TO THE WEST THEN
RELAX AS BUBBLE HIGH MOVES OVER THE UTCW. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS AND WET
GROUND AND ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES AGAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
AROUND GALVESTON BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY AROUND NOON AND EXPECT SCEC/SCA OFFSHORE FLOW.
NEXT WX MAKER SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE WEDNESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LONG
EASTERLY FETCH DEVELOPS BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEA
FOG...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN FRIDAY.

45

AVIATION...
STORMS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND LGT W FLOW IN ITS WAKE. AREA OF
LIFR CIGS RWV/11R/CLL AREA BUT EXPECT THESE TO IMPROVE THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND
WINDS BECOME LGT/VAR WITH WET GROUND AND SKIES ON A CLEARING TREND.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FORM AND MAY AT TIMES LOWER
INTO IFR. RAPID IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AS CF SWEEPS IN AND DRIES OUT THE
AREA.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      44  56  30  51  30 /  10  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              50  63  34  53  32 /  10  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            57  66  40  52  41 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99