Area Forecast Discussion
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503
FXUS64 KLUB 141654
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1054 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING
AND HAS BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH IT. THIS WINDS WILL
TAPER DOWN BY 21Z AND WILL BE LESS THAN 12KTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AT 3 AM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO EXIT THE CWA BY MID/LATE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
RATHER TAME BEHIND THIS FRONT SO FAR...BUT AFTER SUNRISE DIURNAL
MIXING WILL COMPLEMENT PRESSURE RISE RATES AROUND 8 MB/6 HRS AND
RESULT IN A SHORT WINDOW FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE PARENT TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT SUPPORTED AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF
THUNDERSNOW...CG LIGHTNING AND A BONA FIDE SHELF CLOUD LAST
EVENING IN THE BLACK HILLS. OUR WEATHER FALLS WELL SHORT OF THAT
GRANDEUR AS DRY SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY
AND LINGER TONIGHT. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO LOWER MIN TEMPS 3-6
DEGREES OVERNIGHT IN OUR NW COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MOST FAVORED.

LONG TERM...
STILL APPEARS A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND
SURFACE WIND RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WARM UP MAY BE TEMPERED A
BIT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY BUT THIS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...GFS
HAS THE FRONT FASTER INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
HAS A STRONGER SURGE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TRENDING DOWNWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK
BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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