Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 050430
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE EXCITEMENT OF THE PAST WEEK SEEMS TO HAVE COME TO AN END. AS
EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD FIELD THAT COVERED THE
ROLLING PLAINS MOST OF THE MORNING IS MAKING ITS EXIT...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO MAKE THEIR REBOUND. A FEW MODELS WANT
TO PUSH LUBBOCK...PLAINVIEW...AND AREAS EAST TO THE CENTURY MARK AND
WELL ABOVE FOR TOMORROW...BUT THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BUILD QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THAT YET. IF YOU WERE LOOKING
FORWARD TO HITTING THE FIRST 100 IN LBB...YOU WILL HAVE TO WAIT A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

LONG TERM...
THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED INVOLVES HOW HOT
MAX TEMPS WILL SHAKE OUT EACH DAY UNDER A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL
HIGH. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS HIGH IS NOT ANYTHING UNUSUAL WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 5950 METERS EACH DAY...THOUGH 850-700
MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO
KEEP THE INHERITED MAX TEMPS LARGELY IN CHECK WITH NO CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE. ONLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH AMPLIFIES BUT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
ALLOWING SELY WINDS ALOFT COMPLETE WITH LOWER THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  96  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         67  97  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  97  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       71  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  99  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  99  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 102  75 104 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          70 100  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75 103  76 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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