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000
FXUS64 KLUB 182322
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DECLINE A BIT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES
FOR -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION INITIALLY DEVELOPING WEST OF
KLBB...BUT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB FIRST...AND
THUS A PROB30 MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED. FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...A VCSH
HAS BEEN INSERTED AT KCDS AS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
SAID TERMINAL BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT TERM THRU TOMORROW
EVENING. WV CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMMA HEAD LOW OVER SO-CAL DRAWING
IN PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE
PACIFIC. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS AND
THE NAM CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIP FROM THE SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE
THE PRECIP INTO THE FA BUT BOTH SEEM TO FAVOR OUR SW ZONES FOR THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE
WITH SUPPLYING THE MOST LIFT AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT WILL BE DYNAMIC AS CAPE APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AND LAPSE RATES ARE ANYTHING BUT STEEP. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PREVENT MUCH IF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. FOR NOW I
HAVE KEPT POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
NOTHING AT THE MOMENT INDICATES ANY CHANGE IS NEEDED. I HAVE KEPT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP COVERAGE OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH
POPS AROUND 40 SCATTERED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
WE EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT EVENING...BUT ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN OF THE
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY
BROADLY PAINATED. AS THE PRIMARY LIFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE WHERE THE
SFC FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED AND WHERE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT
MAY BEST MATCH UP WITH UPPER-LIFT...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DRYING WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXPAND AND RAISE
POPS...CONCENTRATING ON THE EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SFC-BASED
CAPES COULD RUN NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST...DEPENDING ON THE
IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...LIKELY SOMEWHAT BETTER IN THE
SOUTH THAT NORTH. WE THINK THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS...AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO THAT IS BRIEFLY
SEVERE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
THERE IS A HINT THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME AIDED BY SOME WEAK LIFT IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WE THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE/VE
KEPT POPS SILENT FOR NOW. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVECT MOISTURE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE CWA ON THE LOW-LVL JET WED MORNING AND THEN
DEVELOP CONVECTION EAST OF A DRYLINE LATE WED AFTN AND EVE. WE/VE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...WHILE IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND DRY UP ON THE
CAPROCK. AND...IF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE LATCHING ON TO
SOMETHING...A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A GOOD SETUP FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  74  49  75  49 /   0  30  40  20  10
TULIA         51  74  53  76  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     52  74  53  77  52 /   0  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     53  74  51  78  52 /   0  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       53  76  55  79  54 /   0  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   55  73  52  79  53 /  10  40  40  20  10
BROWNFIELD    54  73  52  79  54 /  10  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     52  78  58  78  55 /   0  10  20  40  30
SPUR          53  77  55  81  58 /   0  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     55  77  58  81  60 /   0  10  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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