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000
FXUS64 KLUB 192318
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.AVIATION...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COULD AFFECT KLBB IN THE EARLY
EVENING. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS OF THESE STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
TO KCDS BY LATER TONIGHT WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHTTIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

UPDATE...
SEVERE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHILDRESS COUNTY.
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM NEW MEXICO AND CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER
HOCKLEY COUNTY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY CAPPED AIR. AS A
RESULT...STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST. A STRONGER THETA-E
AXIS EXISTS FROM THE BIG COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND THEN NORTH TOWARDS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. STORMS MAY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIRTY
RIDGE AXIS NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH SQUEEZE FROM APPROACHING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT OF THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HELPING GENERATE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING
ALONG OR NEAR BOUNDARY...FAVORING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BULK OF
AREA HAS BEEN CLEARED OUT BY THE OUTFLOW WITH MUCH COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS. PERHAPS AREAS INTO REMAINDER OF WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS CAN RECOVER BY LATE THIS EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER SPREADING TOWARDS THE I-27 CORRIDOR. AIRMASS SHOULD SETTLE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO
NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF
RIDGE TO CONTINUE UP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. SOLIDIFIED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST WESTERN AREAS WITH
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS AIRMASS SHOULD RECOVER MORE FULLY
BY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TODAY. UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK...THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SOUTH PLAINS IS
POSITIONED ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WARM CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 90S. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH A SFC
TROUGH...POSSIBLE WEAK DISTURBANCES GRAZING BY AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FETCH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES...PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ATTM...FORECAST HAS MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. RIDGE WILL THEN LIKELY BUILD WESTWARD EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THOUGH BRINGING ANY
LOW THUNDER CHANCES INTO QUESTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  94  65  93  65 /  30  20  20  20  20
TULIA         66  94  67  94  66 /  20  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  94  68  94  67 /  20  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  96  69  95  68 /  30  20  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       71  96  69  95  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   69  98  69  97  68 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  97  68  96  68 /  30  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     71  98  71  98  71 /  10  10  10   0  10
SPUR          70  96  71  96  70 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  98  72  98  72 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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