Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 242308
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
608 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Continued VFR with southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A sizable low pressure has been visible on water vapor imagery
today as it slowly spins its way out of Mexico towards the Trans-
Pecos. We saw the effects of this low this morning as it caused
the storm activity that did move into our area to dwindle rather
quickly. This low is pushing the monsoonal moisture further east
into NM and then rounding the edge of high pressure further north
into the TX Panhandle and OK. So, unfortunately, our activity, for
now, stays rather dry. We do have a nice cloud street stretched
along the boundary of the monsoonal moisture and the high pressure
that is draped across West Texas, but we don`t expect much to
become of that here. Convection is expected over the mountains of
NM and into the TX Panhandle tonight and overnight, but the high
pressure dome looks to work just far enough north to keep those
out of our forecast area.

Tomorrow, though, the low pressure that kept us dry today will be
well over the Trans-Pecos allowing more Gulf moisture to work into
our area. Most of the South and Rolling Plains will still be under
the effects of the high pressure dome, however, the northwest corner
of the forecast area looks to be near an area of weakness where a
shortwave will once again fire off convection in NM and the
Panhandle. These storms have a better chance of making it into those
northwest areas by the late afternoon while the rest of us stay high
and dry. It`s not all bad news, though. The increased moisture will
allow for highs tomorrow to be slightly cooler than today...getting
closer to seasonal highs.

LONG TERM...
Solutions remain on track for a couple of windows for low to
modest shower or thunder chances in the days ahead, but still
lacking strong focusing.

The first will start late in the weekend as moisture being pulled
northwest by the well formed upper low in northern Mexico spreads
into the region late Saturday night into Sunday. The low itself
should lift north into the lower Pecos valley area and then
gradually weaken to an inverted weak upper trough. So, we like the
moisture feed into the area but the dynamic support appears will
be brief or minimal at best. Still, this is worthy of a low
mention for thunder and enough cloud increase to lower highs
slightly Sunday.

On Monday, and for that matter Sunday, the upper high will become
re-established over the four-corners with building heights perhaps
up to about a 10 meter rise in our area Monday. This may weaken
the mid level moisture flow into the area but probably not shut it
off. Entirely possible heights will be able to suppress activity
that day, but we followed still our Superblend solution
maintaining a low thunder mention on Monday and especially as
solutions indicate an outflow enhanced boundary probably spreading
out of the Panhandle late Monday which would give low level
forcing as well for a thunder opportunity. On Tuesday it still
appears this boundary may shove slightly further south and our
area still far enough away from the ridge center to avoid being
totally crippled, so continue low mention for thunder on Tuesday.

For Wednesday and much of Thursday the upper ridge is expected to
shift back over the southern Rockies and adjacent high plains and
further put a kibosh on thunder chances. But by late Thursday we
may see a series of northwest flow disturbances heading off the
front range southeast towards the Texas Panhandle and south plains
region, justifying a return to low thunder chances late next week.
Again, forcing during this time as well and also the flow around
the ridge, appear fairly weak so cant argue anything more than low
chance for now. High temperatures remain not far from normal
through the extended. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93



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