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000
FXUS64 KLUB 270424
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1024 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS OR GRIDS
AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR-CORNERS MOVING
OUR WAY AND WILL SPREAD LIFT INTO THE AREA STARTING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WESTERN BORDER. LOWER LEVELS HAVE DRIED MARKEDLY
BY A SOLID 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...BUT SOLUTIONS INSIST THE
COLUMN WILL COOL AND MOISTEN WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
ALOFT...QUICKLY RE-SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LUBBOCK AREA CLOSE TO 400AM
WITH HEAVIEST RATES BETWEEN 500AM-900AM. BULK OF SOLUTIONS
GENERATE PRECIPITATION OF AROUND 0.10" NORTHEAST WITH 0.25" TO
0.35 INCHES MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THUS SNOWFALL FROM 1" TO 4" SEEMS ON TRACK. STILL CONCERNED FOR
POTENTIAL BANDING AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW GREATER THAN 4" GIVEN THE
HIGH SNOW RATIO WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN LOCATION
YET. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
BKN-OVC VFR DECKS ARE OCCURRING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. -SN/FLURRIES HAVE INTERMITTENTLY SHOWED UP IN THE KPVW
AND KLBB METARS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VIS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY AFFECTING KLBB AND KPVW AOA 09Z AND KCDS AOA
12Z. THIS SNOWFALL COULD BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES AND THUS CAUSE
VIS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR CATEGORY. FURTHERMORE...CIGS WILL
DECLINE TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. -SN WILL COMMENCE TO TAPER
OFF BY THE AFTN AT KLBB AND KPVW...HENCE THE INTRODUCTION OF A
PROB30...BUT WILL BE ONGOING AT KCDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA IS
MOVING SEWD ACROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THIS OPEN WAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS
IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE A BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN SEEN WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE. SPECIFICALLY...VERY
STRONG AND BROAD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED LATE TONIGHT
MAYBE INDICATED BEST BY 45-55 KT WINDS CROSS-PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE 295K THETA SFC. ADD TO THIS A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAN
CERTAINLY SEE THIS MORNINGS 1/4-INCH TO 2-INCH TOTALS TURN INTO 1 TO
4. HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY IN THE PRIME AREAS OF THE SWRN PANHANDLE
OVER TO SILVERTON WITH SOME ISOLATED 4-PLUS TOTALS POSSIBLE. WILL
ISSUE AN ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOWFALL...SPLITTING THE FCST
INTO TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR A LATER START AND FINISH ERN ZONES RELATIVE
TO WEST AND CENTRAL.

OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS COLD TEMPS. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT. SO MOS LOOKING
A BIT COLD...NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...AND WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD WARMER RAW MODEL TEMPS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE NRN ZONES
FROM FALLING INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA /IE LESS THAN MINUS
FIVE/ WITH WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE REBOUND
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE AFTN. NEAR MOS AND PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS FINE ATTM...IN
GENERAL ABOUT A FIVE DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE.

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BACKING FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN A PERIOD
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION COMPLETE WITH A STEADY DOSE
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP A RELATIVELY MOIST AND COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER. COLD ENOUGH AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY EVENING TO
KEEP EVERYTHING IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO A MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

SNOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE FOR A PERIOD THUS RESULTING IN A MIX OF RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DRYING ALOFT MAY BRING A LULL SUNDAY...BUT THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL WARRANT KEEPING MENTIONABLE
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH QUESTIONS AS TO ITS
LATITUDINAL EXTENT AT THAT TIME. AFTER A LIKELY PERIOD WHERE ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A
WINTRY MIX LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

THIS LATTER FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY...THUS LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE BASED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER
MENTION QUIET FOR NOW. APPROACH OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
AND EJECTION OF A SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY SHOULD
SPELL A DRY AND BREEZY/POTENTIALLY WINDY DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE AVERAGE ON DOWNSLOPE BREEZES. BETTER AGREEMENT THEN EXISTS
INTO MIDWEEK ON ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        12  20  15  38 / 100  80  30  20
TULIA         14  18  16  35 /  90  90  30  30
PLAINVIEW     14  20  18  36 /  90  90  30  30
LEVELLAND     15  22  19  41 /  80  70  30  20
LUBBOCK       15  21  18  39 /  80  80  30  30
DENVER CITY   18  23  21  44 /  80  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    17  23  20  42 /  80  70  30  20
CHILDRESS     18  21  19  34 /  40  90  30  40
SPUR          17  21  20  37 /  50  80  30  30
ASPERMONT     19  23  22  38 /  30  80  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ025-
026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

05/99