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000
FXUS64 KLUB 120505
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1205 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
WINDS INCREASED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT APPEAR ON THE VERGE OF
DECLINING. WE ARE UPDATING TO EXPIRE THE DUST STORM WARNING AND
ADVISORY PRODUCTS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
SHREDDED LOW CLOUDS NEAR KCDS EARLY BUT TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR
THINNING THIS LAYER EARLY WEDNESDAY. BLOWING DUST AT KLBB STILL
AROUND 1 TO 2 MILES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH VFR DOMINATING OTHERWISE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

UPDATE...
A DUST STORM WAS BILLOWING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. VISIBILITIES ALREADY REPORTED LESS
THAN TWO CITY BLOCKS IN FRIONA...WHILE A FEW REPORTS INDICATE THE
DUST TAKING ON AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WALL/HABOOB CHARACTERISTICS. WE
HAVE ISSUED A DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR OUR WESTERN
TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES...WITH A DUST ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL TWO
ROWS. THE COLD FRONT IS ARRIVING CLOSE TO ON-TIME...SHOULD BE
INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS CLOSE TO 800 PM. WINDS ALREADY
GUSTING CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA EARLY IN THE EVENT AT DIMMITT.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

AVIATION...
FOCUS NOW ENTIRELY ON THE SHARP COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST PASSED
KCDS AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN KLBB CLOSE TO 01Z. SATELLITE SHOWING
WIDESPREAD THICKENING DUST BEHIND THIS FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. VISIBILITIES ALREADY HAVE
LOWERED UNDER 2SM AT KCDS AND MAY DROP UNDER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...
WHILE KLBB MAY SEE VERY LOW RESTRICTION FROM BLOWING DUST...
PERHAPS EVEN UNDER A HALF MILD. SATELLITE ALSO INDICATES CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEST END OF THE FRONT SUGGESTING PERHAPS
DUST MAY TURN INTO A HABOOB EVENT...WHICH WE WILL CLOSELY WATCH
FOR KLBB. THE 30 KNOT AIRPORT WARNING CRITERIA FOR KLBB WILL BE
VERY CLOSE AS WELL EARLY THIS EVENING...MAY ISSUE THAT AS WELL.
WIND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR RETURNING TO PREVALENT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS TROUGH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT MID-AFTN...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS IN THE VCNTY OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM FRIONA TO LUBBOCK TO ASPERMONT AT 20Z.
MAIN CONCERN THIS CYCLE IS STRENGTH OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO PROG AN AREA OF INTENSE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
THE FRONT /ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 MB PER 3 HRS/ WITH THE CENTER OF
THOSE PRESSURE RISES MOVING SSWWD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WRN ZONES. THIS PATTERN IS A FAIRLY FAMILIAR AND ONE THAT CAN
GENERATE SOME STRONG WINDS. MOS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
PATTERN WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA IN THE
NWRN ZONES GENERALLY NORTH OF A MORTON TO TULIA LINE AND WILL ISSUE
A HIGH WIND WARNING THERE WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED TO BE
MET ELSEWHERE.

WINDS MAY DROP OFF BELOW BREEZY LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...BUT INITIAL
MIXING AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE SOME UNTIL
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...NO
ARGUMENTS WITH MOS ATTM WHICH IS LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALONG WITH A DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AND RENEWED
LEE TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO A WARMUP THURSDAY AHEAD OF A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOP DOWN
MOISTENING WILL BE IN EFFECT...BUT AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN TO APPEAR TOO ANEMIC TO WARRANT POPS
HIGHER THAN 10 PERCENT. DISCREPANCIES STILL REMAIN AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TOWARD AN APPROACHING SYSTEM RIDING DOWN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE. EXACTLY HOW FAR
WEST THIS FEATURE CAN MAKE IT WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...A POSITIVE TILT DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. NONETHELESS...A COOLDOWN
LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
FALLING FROM THE MID 60S-LOW 70S TO 50S-60S SUNDAY BEHIND AN EARLY
DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A WARMUP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES
DEVELOP. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE IN THE OFFING TOWARD THE END
OF OR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

FIRE WEATHER...
SOLID RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE PREVIOUS IDEA OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ENDING ABOUT 03Z REMAINS VALID AND WILL THUS MAKE NO CHANGE TO
ONGOING WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  25  60  32  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         55  26  63  31  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     55  26  63  31  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     55  26  63  32  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       56  29  64  33  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   55  26  61  33  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    56  26  63  33  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     59  31  65  36  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          59  30  65  35  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     60  29  65  39  70 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ024>026-029>044.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>023-027-028.

&&

$$

05/99/05