302
FXUS64 KLUB 131105
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
   and overnight.

 - Warmer today with near normal highs continuing through the
   week.

 - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Patchy dense fog was added to this morning`s forecast across our
north-central zones where low stratus and fog continue to expand
westward on weak upslope flow. HRRR suggests this saturation is
quite thin, so we expect clearing to ensue from 8-9 AM at the
latest. No other updates necessary at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Cooler than normal temperatures continue today and storm chances
return by the afternoon. The upper ridging over SoCal will expand
to the east with the eastern edge just clipping our region and
the secondary upper ridging over the Gulf Coast states remains
stagnant through the day. An upper trough currently over the
Central Plains will slightly shift to the east over the
Oklahoma/Arkansas border. Light southeasterly surface winds will
prevail today in response to a surface trough over New Mexico
drawing in moisture from the Gulf keeping dewpoints in the 60s to
lower 70s. Increasing heights and thicknesses will slightly warm
temperatures to the mid to upper 80s today.

Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances return this afternoon and
evening with help from southeasterly upslope winds. However,
forcing and instability are expected to be weak, therefore any
storms that do develop should be sub-severe. Main hazard expected
will be heavy rainfall and localized flooding. An isolated severe
wind gust or two are also possible. CAMs indicate the greatest
chances for isolated storms to develop will be west of the I-27
corridor with some of this lingering overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The extended forecast continues to feature gradually moderating
temperatures, trending back up to around seasonal norms by mid-week,
where they will remain through the rest of the week. Most days also
have at least a slight chance of showers/storms somewhere in the CWA
through the week, though the overall rain chances/coverage are
trending lower in much of the medium range suite of NWP.

Regarding the details, the deeper monsoon moisture axis is expected
to reside downstate to start the long term (Sunday evening), but it
will be inclined to edge this way early next week as a subtropical
high over the Deep South and Gulf builds into East Texas. However,
the mid-level moisture plume is also forecast to thin as it centers
more closely overhead Monday into Tuesday. Aside from possible
lingering low-level boundaries (location uncertain) and daytime
heating, overall forcing will be weak/nebulous, which may tend to
limit coverage/focus for deep moist convection. The exception
will be over the higher terrain of northeast NM, where orographic
effects will result widespread storm development Sunday afternoon.
This activity may grow upscale through the evening, potentially
affecting our western counties, though northerly flow aloft will
tend to limit how far east this activity can make it Sunday
evening/night.

Thereafter, the upper high is progged to continue its westward
expansion, with drier air aloft advecting into the region mid-late
week as the monsoon reorganizes and is directed more squarely into
the Four Corners. Daily rain/storm chances will be modulated by the
upper high and position of the monsoonal moisture. In general, the
medium range NWP agree the best rain chances will reside to the west
of the CWA, though some activity could occasionally "leak" into our
western/northwestern zones, particularly when shortwaves traversing
the northern tier of the nation bend the moisture feed eastward. We
have accepted the NBM PoPs for now, but if the stronger/closer upper
ridge continues to gain traction, PoPs will need to be reduced and
confined farther to the west than currently depicted mid-late week.
Regardless, temperatures will trend warmer given the increasing
heights/thicknesses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

LIFR stratus and fog at PVW may drift south into LBB in the next
hour or so, but trends suggest otherwise for the time being.
Stratus will mix out by 13-14Z ahead of VFR with light winds. Just
a slight chance of late afternoon and evening TS from LBB-PVW.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...93