Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 232324
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
524 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue. Winds to come around to W/SW this
evening, although remain light. Tightening pressure gradient
Friday will result in higher wind speeds on the order of 15-20 kts
during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper-level ridge extending from the coast of socal into
the southern plains has produced beautiful weather for
Thanksgiving today with mid-afternoon temps in the 70s and light
winds. And it will be mild tonight with temperatures mainly in the
40s.

On Friday, a shortwave trough moving quickly across the plains
will send a front southward. South of the front, warm and breezy
conditions will develop across our forecast area - with high
temperatures threatening record highs for the date (82 at
Lubbock, 86 at Childress). The cold front will pass through late
Friday and bring some northerly breezes early Saturday along with
cooler air, cutting highs down into the 60s for the most part.
Warmer temperatures return on Sunday as the southwest ridge,
although weakened, shifts east over West Texas while a deeper
trough moves into the west.

It will be warmer still on Monday with breezy southwest winds due
to a deepening lee trough downstream of the approaching trough.
The magnitude of the winds are still in question though as the
ECMWF and it`s ensembles remain slower than the GFS/NAEFS with the
speed of this system - maintaining a closed low at 500 mb through
the 4-corners. This discrepancy also lowers forecast confidence
with the forecast for Tuesday, which could range from strong north
winds and colder temperatures with a FROPA per the GFS, or
remaining quite mild with southerly breezes per the ECMWF. Both
camps do keep any chance of precip off to our north, although
some light precip may be possible not too far north of our far
southern TX Panhandle counties.

After the passage of the upper trough, a quasi-zonal pattern
should keep the region mild and dry through the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER...
The fire danger is expected to become elevated on Friday as a
warm, dry and breezy regime develops across the area before a cold
front moves through in the evening hours. Fire concerns are also
be possible on Monday due to a similar weather pattern.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07



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