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000
FXUS64 KLUB 110903
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A EARLY SPRING STRONG WIND/BLOWING DUST AND
FIRE WEATHER EVENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR
ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ROUGHLY EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...PLACING THE CWA ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
MID-LVL JET MAX WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM A LOW IN FAR NE COLO THROUGH THE WRN
PANHANDLES INTO ERN NM WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY. TIGHTENING
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE WEST THEN
W-NW. FINALLY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NRN COLO AND WRN
NE...THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF STRONG WINDS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...MORE ON THAT LATER.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...THE WEST
TEXAS SODAR AT REESE CENTER ALREADY SHOWS 30+ KTS AT 500 FT AGL.
WHILE WE DO HAVE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CWA
THIS MORNING...UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT
QUICKLY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
NOON /SEE DISCUSSION BELOW/. IN GENERAL...WE EXPECT WINDS TO RISE
INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SLIGHTLY
LOWER IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY MORE ACROSS THE W-SW.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LOFT SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST. TEMPS WILL
BE QUITE WARM FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...PERHAPS PUSHING 90F IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS...WHILE CAA
COMING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FAR
SW TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BARRELING SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT/S PROGRESS WILL BE
QUICKER IN THE EAST...LAGGING IN THE WEST...THERE IS STILL A FEW
HOURS OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WE ARE FAVORING
THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP AND THE TTU-WRF...WHICH SHOWS THE
FRONT ENTERING CHILDRESS COUNTY AROUND 23 UTC...AND PARMER COUNTY
AROUND 00 UTC. BUT OF COURSE THE ACTUAL FROPA COULD VARY A COUPLE
HOURS EITHER WAY. AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA
/SUSTAINED SPEED OF AT LEAST 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 57
MPH/ ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA. WE ARE A LITTLE SKEPTICAL THAT
WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT WE ARE PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE HIGH WIND WATCH SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK....WITH SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

SOMEWHAT INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS PROGGED IN
THE 800-700MB WIND FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AROUND 0Z. THIS
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE OVERALL FCST BUT DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...IT COULD LEAD TO A SHORT-DURATION LULL
IN GUSTY WINDS BEFORE A BIG INCREASE WITH THE FROPA.

AS FOR BLOWING DUST...WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CONCENTRATION OF DIRT AND
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT WE DON/T HAVE ANY STRONG INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO ADVISORY OR DUST STORM LEVELS. THIS IS
PARTLY DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND OUR EXPECTATION THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER PEAK MIXING. IF THE FRONT IS FASTER/STRONGER
THAN EXPECTED...THEN DENSE BLOWING DUST MAY BE A GREATER CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AFTER THE ACTIVE SHORT TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST SEEMS RELATIVELY
BENIGN BY COMPARISON. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES SQUARELY OVER WEST TEXAS. IT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS EVENINGS FROPA...WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW MID-MARCH AVERAGES.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY WHICH WHEN COUPLED
WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AND
RENEWED SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MEAN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR AVERAGE.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN WEST TO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT WILL HANG
OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN MID-WEEK. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GET KICKED
EASTWARD LATE WEEK AS JET ENERGY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO CONTINUE
TO PAINT POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT QPF SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE CWA.
GIVEN THIS SIGNAL...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN STILL APPEARS
LOW AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT. THE TIMING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PASSING WAVE DOES ALSO CREATE LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FROPA WILL OCCUR. A QUICKER SYSTEM/FRONT
COULD MEAN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH EITHER WAY THE SYSTEM WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH COOL AIR TO WORK WITH.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AT A MINIMUM...THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LESS CERTAIN IS EXACTLY
WHAT LONGITUDE THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES AND THUS WHETHER OR NOT IT
CAN BRING A WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THE MOST RECENT ECMWF HAS TRENDED BACK FURTHER WEST AND
WETTER...WHILE THE GFS TRACK IS MORE EASTWARD WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE
DRY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS AROUND 10
PERCENT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT TO MAKE A MOVE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER UNTIL
THE NWP CAN COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. REGARDLESS...WARMER AND
DRY WEATHER SHOULD KICK OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW REDEVELOPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS AREA TODAY AND WE WILL EXPAND
AND UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR WHOLE CWA.
DESPITE HIGH RH VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...VERY DRY AIR WILL SPREAD EAST RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING UNDER 15 PERCENT BY 10 AM FOR MANY AREAS...AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE ON THE LOW END OF CRITERIA ACROSS THE ERN ROLLING
PLAINS...IT APPEARS THAT WIND SPEEDS AND RH VALUES WILL SUPPORT AN
EXTREMELY CRITICAL DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS. WINDS MAY RELAX FOR A PERIOD AROUND 6 TO 7 PM...BUT
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS SPEEDS.
ALTHOUGH COOLING TEMPS AND RISING RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE
THE FIRE DANGER...WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
9 PM CDT DUE TO THIS STRONG FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        71  25  52  24  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         76  28  54  25  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     77  29  55  26  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     78  30  54  26  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  32  56  28  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   80  31  55  25  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  33  56  26  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  34  58  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          85  35  58  30  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     88  36  58  29  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>031-033>044.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>023-027-028.

&&

$$

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