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000
FXUS64 KLUB 301126
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CLOUD DECKS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CRITERIA
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...DUE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE ARE HINTS OF DECKS
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW...JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
CYCLE. WIDESPREAD -RA WILL COMMENCE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A -RA/-SN MIX OCCURRING MORE SO
AT KLBB AND KPVW. WILL KEEP ONLY A -RA MENTION FOR NOW AS -SN WILL
LIKELY BE INTERMITTENT...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AS AN UA LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
PROMOTED SW FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS STREAM
A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT IS SCT-OVC
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC RIDGE WAS NOTED NE OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING THEREBY AIDING SFC WINDS TO BE OF AN E-NE COMPONENT PER 08Z
METARS. THIS SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT HAS GARNERED PWATS TO
INCREASE TO AOA 0.50 INCHES SO FAR. RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYED LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT HAS COMMENCED TO
SHIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW SOUTH PLAINS...THE PRECIP TYPE IS LIQUID. IN
FACT...THE SEMINOLE METAR HAS INTERMITTENTLY REPORTED DRIZZLE.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TTU WRF WHICH SHOWS THIS
LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
PERHAPS SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THOUGH WANING WITH
TIME.

LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E-SE
AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES SE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE PWATS TO INCREASE INTO THE
0.75-0.85 INCH RANGE...WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN AND
SWRN ONES.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DO AGREE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
ALSO INCREASE A BIT /PARTICULARY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ WHILST TOP-
DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS. A WELL-DEFINED WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800 MB-750
MB AND SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WILL PROMOTE
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX /RAIN AND SNOW/ ACROSS THE WRN ZONES VERSUS
LIQUID RAINFALL ELSEWHERE. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BOTH PWATS
/0.75-1.00 INCH/ AND UL SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE UA LOW NEARS NWRN OLD MEXICO. TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH
PLAINS...HENCE RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SNOWFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND
RAINFALL OFF THE CAPROCK DURING THE SAID TIME-PERIOD. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS AND EVEN THE USUAL
BULLISH GFS MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE /WET/ SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...BY SHOWING 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH 1-4 INCHES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TAPERED DOWN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT...LEANING MORE SO TOWARDS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE NW
SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS SEE IF RADAR TRENDS DO INDEED SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
TOMORROW...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARMING ALOFT AND A SOME DRYING OCCURRING IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL LIQUID BY LATE
AFTN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /COULD STILL SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE NW ZONES/.

PER 08Z METARS...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH CONTINUED MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER /AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING/...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY NOT WARM MUCH THAN WHAT IT IS THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NW TO THE UPPER 30S
SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 40S TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP EVENT TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. THE NRN PIECE IS PROGGED TO
GET CAUGHT UP WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...AND AS IT DOES IT BRINGS THE LAST BIT OF LIFT TO THE
AREA...MAINLY ERN ZONES WHERE ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE WEST WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX
AND CHANCE POPS EAST WITH ALL RAIN STILL LOOK FINE. AS THAT TROUGH
EXITS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE SRN SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SWD OVER
NWRN MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND FURTHER SOUTH TO SRN BAJA CALIF
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO SPLITS ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
COULD...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF SUNDAYS FCST. THIS SRN LOW
WILL THEN LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA...EVENTUALLY
EJECTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WRN CONUS. ONLY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING TO BE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THEN TEMPS PEAK IN THE 60S THEN DROP BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  29  41  31 /  70  80  50  20
TULIA         40  33  42  33 /  60  80  70  30
PLAINVIEW     40  34  43  34 /  50  90  70  30
LEVELLAND     38  33  45  33 /  60  90  70  20
LUBBOCK       38  35  44  34 /  50  90  70  30
DENVER CITY   39  33  48  36 /  70  90  60  20
BROWNFIELD    40  35  47  36 /  50  90  70  20
CHILDRESS     43  35  44  37 /  20  80  80  50
SPUR          43  35  45  38 /  20  80  80  40
ASPERMONT     41  37  48  40 /  20  80  90  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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