000
FXUS62 KMFL 150549
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
149 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR REMAINDER OF WEEK. DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT
BY AFTERNOON. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. GULF BREEZE IS FORECAST TO IMPACT
NAPLES DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...CAUSING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED CU FIELD FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES. CLEARING
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND UPPER 50S ALONG INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 154 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN THIS
PERIOD AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PENINSULA. THE
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE.
ALL OF THIS MEANS A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEPING A
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG WITH PWAT REMAINING UNDER AN
INCH. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BUT BEGINNING ON THURSDAY THE NAM SHOWS A MOISTURE
INCREASE ALONG WITH A DEEPENING SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS COULD EASILY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND IT DOES INCREASE THE POPS TO LOW END SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP IT MUCH DRIER WITH PWAT CLIMBING TO
JUST OVER AN INCH AND ALSO MAINTAIN A SHALLOWER SOUTHEAST FLOW. SO
FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH A DRIER FORECAST BUT WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A BLEND OF ALL MODELS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT WITH SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES. ALL SHOW A CUT-OFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO THE PAST FEW DAYS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AS IT
GETS PHASED IN WITH THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES. A SECOND MID LEVEL
TROUGH THEN MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BEGINS TO CARVE OUT
A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHERE THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS LIE IS THE EFFECTS THIS WILL HAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS, NAM AND ECMWF LOOK VERY SIMILAR ON
FRIDAY SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASE WITH PWAT CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND SOME COOLING OCCURRING AT 500 MB, THUS DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME RAIN BUT THE MAV ONLY INCREASES TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY
WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS BETTER CHANCES. FOR NOW, WILL GO ALONG WITH
THE MAV NUMBERS AND KEEP ISOLATED COVERAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF
MOISTURE INCREASE IN BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS.

MARINE...
NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6
FEET TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDING ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 35 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LESS
EACH AFTERNOON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW MOISTURE RETURN
THEREAFTER. HOWEVER, NO ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT WITH ERC VALUES
IN THE MID 20S OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  66  81  71 / -  -  10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  70  83  73 / -  -  10 20
MIAMI            83  70  84  73 / -  0 10 20
NAPLES           86  65  86  67 / -  0 -  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK