Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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373
FXUS64 KOHX 280655
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
155 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered convection continues to move across Middle Tennessee
early this morning as a long-awaited cold front approaches the mid
state. Surface map at 06Z shows the front situated right along the
Ohio River, and the 00Z models bring the front into Middle
Tennessee between 12-15Z. The boundary won`t completely exit the
mid state until after 00Z. During its passage, expect widespread
cells, but the latest HRRR suggests nothing actually organized.
The SPC has backed off from its earlier slight risk area, with
most of Middle Tennessee under a marginal risk of severe storms
(or general thunderstorms only). The primary threat continues to
be strong-to-severe straight-line winds. Most of our storms will
be sub-severe throughout the day. There is plenty of instability
in the pre-front environment, with CAPE`s running 1,500 to 2,500
J/kg today. There is very little wind shear in place, and this
will help limit the severe potential. Most of us will receive
some much-needed rainfall today, with 12-hour QPF`s ranging from
less than 1/4" in the NW to around 3/4" over the SE. Other than
brief flooding from torrential rainfall in thunderstorms, the
flooding threat is low. The front is moving through quickly enough
that the ground should easily absorb whatever rainfall we do
receive. There may be some lingering activity this evening over
mainly our eastern and southern areas, and then temperatures will
cool off several degrees. The upcoming weekend will be the most
pleasant we`ve experienced in some time, with temperatures several
degrees below normal. Weak high pressure will dominate our
weather pattern for most of next week. We won`t see any meaningful
return flow until the latter part of next week at the earliest.
So temperatures will struggle to just get back to normal
throughout the extended portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered shower activity will continue as a frontal boundary sags
towards the area. Left thunder out of all terminals until after
16z given lack of lightning currently and HRRR trends. Cigs will
deteriorate to MVFR in the morning at all terminals. Rain chances
will end from the NW during the afternoon as winds turn to the
north with fropa. Wind speeds should be in the 5-10 kt range. Some
MVFR cigs may linger behind the front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  68  83  63  85 /  60  30   0   0   0
Clarksville    84  65  82  59  83 /  50  10   0   0   0
Crossville     78  64  76  58  79 /  70  50  10   0   0
Columbia       84  67  82  61  84 /  60  30   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   84  68  82  61  84 /  60  40   0   0   0
Waverly        84  66  82  61  84 /  50  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........Reagan



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