Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 210010 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
710 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED THRU LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING IN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS. ADDED
AN HOUR OF PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z PLATEAU REGION. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST/FORECAST REASONING ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR
TONIGHT...LIGHT SSW WINDS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ON
SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10G20KT AND BECMG NW. A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY...BUT NOT IN TAFS SINCE POPS ARE QUITE LOW...IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MIDDLE TN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WE`LL FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND HOWEVER WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST REGION...AND WILL
LIKELY REACH THE TN/KY BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS COULD
POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO THINK OUR BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
LAG INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH THE OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS. THINK 50 POPS ARE TOO
HIGH SO HAVE TRIMMED THOSE BACK TO LOWER CHANCES.

ONCE THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE MID STATE...UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NOT SURE WE COULD ASK FOR BETTER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL AS MONDAY`S AFTERNOON HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS IN THE 50S CONTINUING. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
NOSING INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
BETWEEN THE TWO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT...WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS.

AL

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
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