Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 020004 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SOME PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG CKV/CSV PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL AND CALM WINDS 02/04Z-02/14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN CI THRU 02/24Z. DIURNAL BASED SCT CU TO SCT/BKN AC
DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY 02/16Z-02/24Z. GENERALLY CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO PREDOMINATE LIGHT N/NE BY 02/24Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S AT PRESENT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IN
MORGAN COUNTY. SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS.

ALTHOUGH WE STARTED METEOROLOGICAL FALL TODAY...NO SIGNS OF IT
WILL BE SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS SUMMER WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH. BASED ON THIS PATTERN...12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
HOTTER AND DRIER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SIMILAR EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POPS RETURNING FROM EAST TO WEST
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ADVECTS WESTWARD
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE H5 LOW TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THIS OVERALL PATTERN AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  91  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     65  86  66  86 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       67  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   67  91  68  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        66  91  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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