Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 302354
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
554 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC/LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME EARLY MORNING LIGHT FOG
CSV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THE HIGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME CALM. LOWS WILL DROP TO
THE LOWER 20S FOR MOST AREAS. ONE QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMP FORECAST
TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH EFFECT THE INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL HAVE.
READINGS ARE LIKELY TO DROP OFF THOUGH 3 AM...THEN BECOME MORE
STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE CIRRUS CLOUDS THICKEN...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF I 65. SOME VALLEYS AND SHELTERED AREAS EAST OF I 65 WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN...AND A MID LEVEL CLOUDS LAYER
DOWN TO 10 KFT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN BY SATURDAY EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING TOGETHER OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY
REGIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
FOR LATE NIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ON SUNDAY...STEADY RAIN
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...WITH ONE QUARTER TO
THREE QUARTER INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF MID TN...SO GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS TO 25 MPH WILL BRING IN SOME MILD AIR WITH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 40S...AND MAYBE LOWER 50S.

WE CONTINUED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT WINTER WX POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING...RAIN WILL BE FALLING AND TEMPS
WILL STILL BE MILD. BY MIDNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
EAST...CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...WITH COLDER AIR
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO MID TN. THIS IS A COMMON SETUP FOR MID
TN...TO HAVE DEEP MOISTURE PULLING AWAY JUST AS COLD AIR ARRIVES.
ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE DECENT LOOKING MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL SWING DOWN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP LIGHT POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION GOING
LATE INTO THE NIGHT WHEN THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW.
SO...IT IS REASONABLE TO INCLUDE SOME LOW END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE FORECAST. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
RANGE FROM A DUSTING IN THE SOUTHWEST...TO AROUND 1 INCH ON THE
NORTH PLATEAU. AREAS IN BETWEEN...LIKE NASHVILLE...COULD HAVE
ANYWHERE FROM JUST A SLUSHY COATING TO MAYBE ONE HALF INCH. IT IS
ALWAYS HARD TO FORECAST SNOW HERE...AND THERE ARE NEVER ANY
GUARANTEES. REGARDLESS OF ACCUMULATIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE MID STATE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND ANY REMAINING MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO FREEZE. SINCE WE
ARE GOING INTO A WEEKEND...AND MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS A HIGH
IMPACT TIME...WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT TO
MENTION THE POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MONDAY WILL BE A COLD AND BRISK DAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER THE PLATEAU MONDAY MORNING...ADDING ANOTHER TENTH OR 2
TO THE POSSIBLE INCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE PLATEAU. HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE 30S WITH
NORTH WINDS DROPPING WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S.

MONDAY WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD. TUESDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND MILDER AS
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. ANOTHER SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER GOOD SHOT
OF COLD AIR FOR LATE WEEK.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1210 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AT CSV WHERE MVFR CEILINGS STILL PERSIST...EXPECT CEILING EROSION
BY AROUND 30/22Z AS SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SKC SKY CONDITIONS THRU MUCH OF 31/18Z
WITH SOME STREAMING SCT/BKN CI POSSIBLE...MAINLY WRN HALF. EXPECT
NLY WINDS TO DIE DOWN TO AROUND 5KTS BY 31/00Z...WITH MAYBE ENOUGH
PREVALENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALSO WITH CALM WINDS AND
CLR SKIES FOR MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT CSV 31/10Z-31/15Z.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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