Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 222039
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
239 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A NICE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MID TN WITH A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS...BUT NO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS DEVELOPING OVER TX. SOMEWHAT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WERE BRINGING IN THE
WARMER AIR. DEW POINTS WERE ALSO STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL STREAM TOWARD MID
TN..WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.
SSE SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

ON SUNDAY...THE STRONG TROUGH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM
THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS MID TN...RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND CONSIDERABLE SR
HELICIITY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. OUR MAIN
CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES...WILL COME FROM THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ISSUED. WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE OVERNIGHT
FORECASTERS PIN DOWN THE TIMES AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
BE PULLING AWAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY EVEN THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

AFTER THIS BIG SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...QUIET WC IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME INCONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN THE EXTENDED. FOR EXAMPLE...ON THURSDAY...GEFS GUIDANCE HI TEMP
VALUES RANGE FROM 39 TO 59. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE OUR STANDARD
EXTENDED BLEND...LEANING TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      47  65  51  59 /  20 100  50  30
CLARKSVILLE    47  64  47  55 /  20 100  60  30
CROSSVILLE     45  58  52  55 /  20 100  40  30
COLUMBIA       49  63  51  59 /  30 100  40  30
LAWRENCEBURG   48  62  50  59 /  30 100  30  30
WAVERLY        50  64  48  56 /  20 100  50  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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