Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 230912
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
212 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016
Drier and more stable conditions will prevail today with only an
isolated shower or thunderstorm possible across Mono and Mineral
counties this afternoon. Breezy conditions will develop this
afternoon with lighter winds expected through mid-week.
Temperatures remain a degree or two above average through mid-week
with a few degrees of cooling into the weekend.
Northwest flow aloft will usher in drier and more stable conditions
today as the region is positioned between eastern Pacific ridging
and an upper low across the northern Plains. Drier air will work its
way south today but will still see residual moisture and instability
across Mono and Mineral counties this afternoon. This will allow for
the development of isolated showers or thunderstorms today for these
regions with breezy conditions expected elsewhere.
The surface pressure gradient will enhance today with afternoon wind
gusts in the 25-30 mph range expected, with up to 35 mph possible in
wind prone locations mainly along the Hwy 395 corridor. Coupled with
dry conditions, localized critical fire weather conditions are
possible which may promote fire spread for preexisting fires across
Drier air will continue to filter south on Wednesday with overall
stable conditions prevailing. Have removed mention of showers and
storms on Wednesday and reduced coverage for Thursday. Lighter winds
will also be in place through midweek with high temperatures
remaining a degree or two above seasonal averages. Highs
temperatures through midweek will be in the lower 90s with lower
80s expected across Sierra valleys. Fuentes
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...
Latest models are drier than previous runs late week into the
weekend and trending toward yesterday`s GFS solution. The weak baggy
trough retrogrades more and as a result a drier southwest flow is
expected. In addition, temps aloft are not as cold which will limit
instability. For now, kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in for
Friday and Saturday, but I did trim them back to Mono-Mineral
Counties only. Winds still look light both days.
Sunday into Monday, the trough begins to move inland and southwest
winds will increase. How strong depends on how consolidated the
trough is. the GFS has a more consolidated trough with stronger
winds aloft while the EC is weaker. These are all within the
ensemble envelope so will keep it moderate for now. If the GFS
verifies, there could be concerns for fire weather early next week.
Temperatures will continue to hover near average for late August.
Drier today with the only threat of storms over Mono-Mineral
Counties and threats to KMMH and KHTH. KMMH has the better chance at
around 25 of being affected while KHTH is closer to 10%. Outside of
thunderstorms and gusty winds, overall SW winds will increase for
areas north of highway 50. Peak gusts to 25 kts are likely at all
the desert terminals with KTVL/KTRK closer to 20 kts.
Continued VFR conditions into Wednesday and Thursday with any threat
of thunderstorms very small. Afternoon winds will be lighter,
especially Thursday when the become more north versus west.
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