Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 222246
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
246 PM PST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL EXPAND INTO THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA IS BRINGING COPIOUS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AND MOISTURE IS DISJOINTED SO THERE
IS NO PRECIPITATION INDICATED ON ANY OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OR
SOUTHERN OREGON RADARS (NOR IS IT EXPECTED).

TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
AROUND 1500 MILES WEST OF LOS ANGELES WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE
WEST COAST, BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE NUDGES IN ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO
NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA, AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER SIERRA RIDGES ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE EVENT DOES NOT LOOK MAJOR WITH WIND GUSTS REMAINING
BETWEEN ABOUT 40 AND 60 MPH FOR THE CREST. ALSO, WINDS ON LAKE TAHOE
WILL BECOMING ELEVATED NORTHEAST TO EAST STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING LATER ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE A TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC THAT WILL DRAW A CLOSED LOW NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AS
THE LOW DRAWS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
INLAND. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWING HIGHER SNOW LEVELS ROUGHLY
ABOVE 7,500-8,000 FEET AND DO NOT SHOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DYNAMICS ARE
WEAK.

MAINLY LOOKING FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FILTERS IN AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
REPRESENTING THESE SMALL/WEAK FEATURES. WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD BRUSH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE EC AND GFS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ENSEMBLE SPREADS ALSO LIMIT
CONFIDENCE AND WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE GLEANED TO WHICH TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER HOWEVER THAT WE WILL MAINTAIN MILD AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING LARGELY IN THE 50S THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SIERRA THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF TURBULENCE POSSIBLE. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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