Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 262156
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
256 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY, WITH VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

FOCUS OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST IS CONSIDERABLE WITH NOAA IPW SENSOR NEAR DEATH VALLEY
SHOWING 1.4" TODAY. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM, WITH
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES BEING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND MONDAYS
HIGH TEMPS.

GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW
UNSTABLE WE GET EACH AFTERNOON. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE BEST RISK OF
ISOLATED TSTMS IS OVER MONO/MINERAL WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME, ALBEIT WEAK, INSTABILITY AND PW 0.6-0.7". I HAVE REMOVED
TSTMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA INCLUDING
RENO/TAHOE DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND A FORCING MECHANISM.

INTO MONDAY, GUIDANCE IS BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD HELP GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS EVEN
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. FORECAST PW VALUES NEAR 0.9" - USUALLY A
SIGN THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. SO
WE`VE KEPT COVERAGE OF TSTMS AT ISOLATED AND MAINLY ALONG THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF HWY 50. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND AND SCATTERED SHOWERS - TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM SO WE`VE CUT BACK ON FORECAST HIGHS. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME WRN NV VALLEYS MAY REMAIN IN THE 80S
MONDAY AFTERNOON IF SHOWERS ARE COMMON.

ONE MORE NOTE - SMOKE/HAZE FROM THE SAND FIRE SOUTH OF PLACERVILLE
MAY WORK INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY. UNLESS THE FIRE BECOMES
SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER, THE SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 6-10 MILES. CS

.LONG TERM...

MAIN CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED WERE TRENDING MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER TUESDAY-THURS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST US NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY. FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED, EXCEPT MAYBE ON THURSDAY. LATER IN
THE WEEK, WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY PUSH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY
OUT OF THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV, BUT IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO
CLEAR OUT ALL PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM THE CONVECTIVE THREAT.

FOR TUESDAY, SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AROUND THE
RIDGE, BUT THE MOST LIKELY TRACK APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL OR
EASTERN NV DURING THE MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD LEAVE WESTERN NV IN
THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL CAPPING
PREVENTING MOST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH SOME GENERAL
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED TO RETURN BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED
FORCING, THERE MAY ONLY BE SPARSE CELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MARGINALLY BETTER POTENTIAL NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. WE LEFT POPS
AT SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR WHERE
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP.

INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASE FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT FORCING
APPEARS LIMITED AGAIN. SLOW MOVING CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, BUT ONLY IN A FEW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR KEEPING CELLS
GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, KEEPING STORM COVERAGE
GENERALLY ISOLATED.

ON THURSDAY, SHORTWAVE OFF THE WEST COAST IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA. THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME BETTER LIFT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WHILE SURFACE CONVERGENCE EAST OF
RENO-CARSON MAY HELP DEVELOP SOME STRONGER CELLS IN WEST CENTRAL NV
AS WELL.

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO NEXT FRIDAY-SATURDAY. WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD BRING A LITTLE MORE DRYING TO THE TAHOE BASIN AND FAR
WESTERN NV, LIMITING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE WE KEPT ONLY SLGT CHC THUNDER ACROSS THE USUAL CONVERGENCE
ZONES IN NERN CA-NWRN NV, AND FROM THE WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN
SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO EDGE UP A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH FRI-SAT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S FOR
WESTERN NV. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THRU SUNDAY. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 21Z-04Z SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH A 10-15% PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING THE KMMH
AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THIS WEEKEND, EXCEPT FOR A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THIS EVENING. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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