Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 221000
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ONE MORE
ROUND OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY RETURNING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF CIRRUS AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE IS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CA-WESTERN NV AT
THIS TIME.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DECENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH, MAINLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, WITH MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES LOCALLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG ON THE LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE. WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING AT 500
MB COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG CELLS, EVEN WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LESS CAPPED TODAY SO CELLS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
GREATEST RISK OF STORMS BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM OVER NORTHEAST CA AND
FAR WESTERN NV INCLUDING THE RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY. CELL
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND MOVE QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY, AT
SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED
FIRE STARTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK.

BY THIS EVENING, THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY/SURPRISE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL NV MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WITH MOST CELLS DIMINISHING OR EXITING
THESE AREAS BY 9 PM. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BECOME DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WITH CLEARING SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A QUICKER SPREAD OF ANY EXISTING
FIRES.

FOR THURSDAY, LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OF LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE WERE TO
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. HEIGHTS AND H700 TEMPS INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE WRN NV VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 BY
SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASING A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY.

AS RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED A BIT MORE NW TO SE BY SUNDAY THERE
ARE STRONG INDICATIONS OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN BACK INTO THE SRN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. NOW THERE ARE HINTS
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN FARTHER NORTH MONDAY. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WESTERLIES DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE...WILL
ALLOW POPS TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH MOST OF NE CA BUT WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF WRN NV.

HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS
WILL BE...SO WILL NEED TO JUST BROAD BRUSH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MONDAY. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT SHOULD
THEN BEGIN TO COOL A FEW DEGREES IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. 20
&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IS PROBABLE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND SOUTH TO AROUND BRIDGEPORT AND HAWTHORNE. TSTMS
SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LVL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE
SW. THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 45
KTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH FLIGHT LEVEL TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN AND NEAR THE TSTMS.

AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TERMINAL TO SEE A TSTM WILL BE
IN THE KNFL AND KLOL AREAS AND POSSIBLY KSVE WHERE BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL EXIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON WESTERLIES IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS WINDS DECREASE AS
WELL. 20
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








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