Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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589
FXUS65 KREV 081727
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
927 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO RAISE WINDS ON PYRAMID LAKE AS THEY HAVE BEEN
BLOWING 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH SINCE ABOUT 5:30 THIS
MORNING. AS FAR AS LAKE TAHOE, WINDS WERE AS HIGH AS 20-30 MPH
(BUOYS 2 AND 3) FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ARE NOW MORE
BEHAVED IN THE 10-20 WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH RANGE. THEREFORE, THE
FORECAST FOR TAHOE WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH EXCEPT TO MENTION THAT
GUST TO 25 MPH COULD LAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNYDER

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, THEN WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN SLIM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN SHORT TERM WEATHER ISSUE IS THE GUSTY EAST RIDGE LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND CARSON RANGE, GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 50-60 MPH SINCE YESTERDAY WITH A MAXIMUM GUST OF 74 MPH AT
ALPINE MEADOWS SUMMIT. THESE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH COULD STILL OCCUR. ON LAKE
TAHOE, WIND GUSTS WERE PEAKING NEAR 25 MPH ON MID-LAKE BUOYS.
THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR
2 FEET ALONG THE WEST SHORES MAINLY THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT NOT
QUITE REACHING THE THRESHOLD FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE, AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST BY
THIS EVENING, OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE WITH RIDGE LEVEL
GUSTS BELOW 30 MPH. FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SETS UP OVER EASTERN NV.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH STRONG VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT WARMING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S FOR
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY. FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, THE WEAKENING
INVERSION WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCATIONS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60
DEGREES. MJD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM SPLITS
AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG RIDGE. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE ALREADY MEAGER MOISTURE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OREGON
BORDER, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. HAVE
REMOVED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND REDUCED TO SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN THOSE AREAS WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, OVERALL TOTALS WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, BUT NOT PUSHING RECORDS, WHICH ARE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER. DJ

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE
SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WHILE
EASTERLY SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE TURBULENCE ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA WITH MID-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR POSSIBLE
BETWEEN THE LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

PATCHY SHALLOW FREEZING GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MARTIS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KTRK, EARLY THIS MORNING, DISSIPATING BY AROUND 15Z. THERE
IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FZFG IN THE SAME AREA IN ADDITION TO THE
SIERRA VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. DJ

REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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