Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 262027
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
127 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY, BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO BE SET. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
GOOD MIXING AS THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN NV. WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM THE SIERRA FRONT
NORTHWARD WITH RIDGE WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING FRI NIGHT WITH
TROUGH PASSAGE, GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS AND EXCEED THEM IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
FOR MANY WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

TROUGH WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH DECREASING WINDS AND A
GENERAL SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
NEAR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SIERRA, AND LATER IN THE SEASON THIS
WOULD USUALLY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ALONG PARTS OF THE SIERRA ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NO INDICATION OF
CONVECTION. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEAK TROUGH MIGRATES EAST ON MONDAY, ALLOWING LARGE SCALE
WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF THIS ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERALLY THE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WINDS NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP WITH EACH SHORTWAVE THAT BRUSHES THE REGION, THEY ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FIRST DISTINCT SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COOLER AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
GFS BRINGING A TROUGH DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF
DROPS THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS
SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE -6 TO -10 DEGREES CELSIUS
RANGE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS
MODELS HAVE VARIED SOLUTIONS AND RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES. WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...

BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE ARE FORECAST. RIDGE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY.

A DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE WINDS MAINLY TO RIDGES EARLY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WEISHAHN

&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...

FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

CITY              FORECAST HIGH   RECORD    DATE
RENO                    80          75      1966,1986
CARSON CITY             78          76      1986
FALLON                  82          78      1986
LOVELOCK                83          77      1966
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE        69          70      1988
TRUCKEE                 69          70      1988
SUSANVILLE              76          74      1988
BRIDGEPORT              74          68      1986
MAMMOTH LAKES           65          57      1997

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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