Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 251012
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
312 AM PDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will move through western Nevada with a few showers
and brisk northwest winds expected this afternoon. After a break
Tuesday, unsettled weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday. A
warming trend with dry weather is looking more likely for next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

An upper level low is currently centered across Nevada with areas of
light showers extending roughly from Fallon to just north of Pyramid
Lake. Current water vapor and IR satellite show drier air aloft
beginning to push across northern California which has diminished
shower activity and thinned cloud cover. Couple this with radar
trends and the latest HRRR simulations, do think that most of the
precipitation activity will remain across Pershing and Churchill
counties with only light shower activity along and west of the Hwy
395 corridor. As such, have expired the Winter Weather Advisory
across the Surprise Valley and northern Washoe County.

Brisk northwest winds will continue today with steady 15-25 mph
winds expected with gusts around 30-35 mph possible. This may
result in rough lake waters especially on Pyramid Lake and have a
Lake Wind Advisory in place today as a result. These northerly
winds may produce some terrain enhanced snow showers across Mono
County but all told snow showers should remain light with 1-2" of
snowfall possible mainly across eastern portions of Pershing and
Churchill counties.

Showers will diminish by this evening with a drier and quieter day
expected for Tuesday as we briefly see shortwave ridging aloft. This
will be followed by the next upper low which is expected to arrive
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will be a little warmer so
mainly expecting rain showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms
possible by Wednesday afternoon. Snow levels will remain around
6,000-6,500 feet during the afternoon so could see some snow and
rain mix at lake level. This system is also a quick moving trough
so that should also limit significant accumulations. Fuentes


.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

Low pressure hangs around on Thursday with moisture and instability.
Additional showers and a few thunderstorms remain through the day on
Thursday with peak instability in the afternoon, especially for
areas south of Interstate 80. Snow levels will remain around 6000-
7000 feet, although some stronger showers could bring snow levels
down to around 5000 feet at times. Low pressure moves out of the
area on Friday, with clearing skies and temperatures rising back up
into the upper 60s in western NV and upper 50s in the Sierra.

Beyond Friday, there is much uncertainty in the forecast as models
have been flip-flopping on potential of a shortwave dropping out of
Western Canada and into the Great Basin. This would potentially
bring a dry back-door cold front to the forecast area for the
weekend. Ensembles are also showing big differences in the forecast
as well. We didn`t make too much change in the forecast for the
weekend due to low forecaster confidence. Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

A broad area of low pressure continues to affect the region with
moisture and shower activity. A few isolated to scattered showers
are possible this morning around KRNO/KCXP, although it does look
like the best potential will remain further east near KLOL-KNFL.
Periods of MVFR CIGS are likely through early this afternoon for the
area terminals, especially at KTRK and KTVL.

Gusty North-Northwest winds up to 25-30kts are expected through the
day, with gusts up to 40kts at KMMH. Low pressure moves out of the
area for Tuesday with lighter winds and clearing skies. Hoon

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.

CA...None.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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