Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 112102
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
202 PM PDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A SECOND SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY WITH
BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION BAND FORMING JUST NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. MODELS ARE POINTING AT ALPINE, DOUGLAS, SOUTHERN
LYON AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTIES AS HAVING THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHERE A LOW
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. MODELS ARE A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

MAIN IMPACT IS AN INCREASE IN WEST WINDS STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES. BOATERS HEADING OUT TO PYRAMID
LAKE WILL WANT TO CHECK CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
GOING OUT ON THE WATER. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ON TAHOE
SHOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA WITH 50S FOR THE SIERRA. THERE ARE A FEW MODEL RUNS
THAT SUGGEST HIGHS FOR RENO MAY FALL TO NEAR 60, WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S FOR THE SIERRA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY WITH WESTERN NEVADA WARMING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW 70S AND 60S FOR THE SIERRA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE DATA TRENDED STRONGLY
TOWARD A GENERAL FLAT RIDGE PATTERN OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA-WESTERN
NEVADA NEXT WEEK. THE PROJECTED SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FOR
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT IS NOW MUCH WEAKER, WITH THE TRACK FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT OF THIS SIGNIFICANT
GUIDANCE TREND, THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WAS LIMITED TO AREAS
NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK LINE FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO REDUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED FOR EVERY DAY AND NIGHT NEXT WEEK. WHILE SOME COOLING IS
STILL PROJECTED WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, HIGHS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE, HIGHS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
RANGE FROM LOWER-MID 70S FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS, AND LOWER-MID
60S NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN THE TAHOE BASIN. IF THE ECMWF WITH ITS
STRONGER RIDGE VERIFIES, HIGHS WOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER LATER
NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME VALLEYS POSSIBLY REACHING 80 DEGREES.

WINDS NEXT WEEK MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN BECOME LIGHTER WEDNESDAY WITH
SHALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. WEST WINDS RETURN NEXT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BUT GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN 25 MPH OR LESS AS STORM TRACK
STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF BRIEF -TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THRU 03Z
THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MONO COUNTY.
HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF ANY CONVECTION IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
IS LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10% FROM KTVL-KCXP NORTHWARD, AND
10-15% FOR KMMH. ON SATURDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA IS EVEN LOWER
AND LIMITED TO THE SIERRA SOUTH OF KTVL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 20 KT EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER AND
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR -TSRA. WEST-NW WINDS INCREASE TO 25-30 KT
SATURDAY AFTN-EVE FOR WESTERN NV. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




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