Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 252204
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
204 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOWS POSSIBLE EVEN ON VALLEY FLOORS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AROUND THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
LATE TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE TO THE NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
MAY LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK LINE. WEISHAHN

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH A COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE A SLIDER
TYPE SYSTEM. WHILE IT HAS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
SINCE IT IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN TYPICAL SLIDERS, THE
DETAIL DIFFICULTY WITH SLIDERS REMAINS. OVERALL, THERE LOOKS TO BE
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN NV FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO ALL
VALLEY FLOORS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THOSE IDEAS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.

HOWEVER, WE REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION MAY BE AND THE EXACT TIMING. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS A
BAND OF SNOW WILL FORM BEHIND THE FRONT SOMETIME FROM FRIDAY
EVENING INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE FAIRLY INTENSE, BUT
WHERE IT WILL BE AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES ARE UP IN THE AIR. RIGHT
NOW, GOING WITH A GENERAL NEAR 6" ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE SIERRA
2-4" AT LAKE LEVEL AND UP TO 1" ON THE WRN NV VALLEY FLOORS IS A
REASONABLE GUESS. THAT SAID, WHERE THE BAND SETS UP COULD SEE
TOTALS OF TWICE THOSE AMOUNTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE.

BEHIND THE BAND, THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE, SOME OF THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE HEAVIER IN UPSLOPE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY. TEMPS
WILL COOL TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THAT COUPLES WITH A
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ON SUNDAY, SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND BE
MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVES AWAY FROM WESTERN NV. NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 40S FOR WESTERN NV
VALLEYS AND NEAR 40 FOR THE TAHOE BASIN.

A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
MONDAY WITH INCREASING SW-W WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN BY
MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH,
BRINGING EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.
WHILE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS LOW STILL SHOWS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, THE BEST PRECIP CHANCE APPEARS TO SET UP
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF PULLS IN MORE MOISTURE WITH
A LONGER DURATION EVENT COMPARED TO THE GFS, BUT EVEN THE WETTER
SCENARIO WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP, BUT PROJECTING
THE LOCATION OF THESE BANDS IS NOT FEASIBLE FOR THIS TYPE OF WEATHER
SYSTEM 5-6 DAYS IN ADVANCE.

WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, MAX
TEMPS COULD STRUGGLE TO PUSH ABOVE 40 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. BRISK NORTH
WINDS WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE CHILLY CONDITIONS. A PERIOD OF STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHEAST RIDGE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD CIRRUS OF VARIED THICKNESS PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY, NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT AREA TERMINALS, EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER
AT KMMH. MJD

&&



.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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