Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 162015
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
115 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS,
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SIERRA.

&&

.EVERYTHING - SHORT AND LONG TERM...

A POTPOURRI OF WEATHER ISSUES TO ADDRESS TODAY...WINDS, SMOKE, TSTMS,
AND CHANGING TEMPERATURES SO I`LL JUST HIT THE HIGH POINTS. THIS IS
THE RESULT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS HAS THE TROF THEN
MILLING ABOUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND INTRODUCING
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. RIDGING THEN LIKELY TO WORK INTO THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

* WINDS: FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE`LL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS
  FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW, DRIVEN BY APPRECIABLE
  LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS EACH DAY. APPROACHING JET STREAK
  WILL HELP ENHANCE WINDS FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
  GUSTS 30-45 MPH OR SO ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, LOW HUMIDITIES ARE
  NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT RED FLAG
  WARNINGS. WE`LL BE POSTING LAKE WIND ADVISORIES FOR WEDNESDAY AS
  A HEADS UP TO POTENTIAL ROUGH WATER ON TAHOE/PYRAMID.

* SMOKE: THE KING FIRE NORTHEAST OF PLACERVILLE CONTINUES TO BE
  ACTIVE TODAY AS EVIDENCED BY PLUMES ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
  KDAX RADAR. S/SW TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE UP INTO DONNER
  PASS, TRUCKEE, TAHOE, AND SIERRA VALLEY AREAS TODAY AND
  TOMORROW. LOCAL ZEPHYR WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT LIKELY TO
  THEN TAKE THAT SMOKE INTO THE RENO AND PERHAPS CARSON CITY AREAS
  EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER INTENSITY OF THE SMOKE AND
  RESULTANT IMPACTS TO AIR QUALITY REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WITH NEARING
  UPPER TROF, TRANSPORT WINDS FORECAST TO SWITCH TO WESTERLY
  THURSDAY FOCUSING SMOKE IMPACTS SOUTH OF HWY 50 ASSUMING THE
  FIRE REMAINS ACTIVE. AS TROF LINGERS OVER CALIF AND THE GREAT
  BASIN, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO MORE OF A NE DIRECTION STARTING
  FRIDAY WHICH WOULD TEND TO SEND SMOKE MORE INTO AREAS WEST OF
  THE CREST.

* THUNDERSTORMS: RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY
  HELP GENERATE ISOLATED TSTMS IN MONO/MINERAL CO THIS AFTERNOON.
  A RESPECTABLE CU FIELD IS PRESENT THERE AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL
  TSTM RISK ON WEDNESDAY SEEMS MINIMAL AS AREA IS SANDWICHED
  BETWEEN APPROACHING TROF AND NW PERIMETER OF MONSOON MOISTURE
  PUSH. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST BET FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH
  GOOD POSITIONING OF UPPER FORCING AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THEN
  INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, TSTM RISK DEPENDENT ON WOBBLING
  UPPER LOW. GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED LOW CHANCES OF TSTMS
  OVER THE SIERRA FROM MONO CO SOUTHWARD BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
  IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN LOW POSITION AND
  INSTABILITY.

* TEMPERATURES: PASSING UPPER TROF WILL USHER IN AN EARLY FALL
  COLD FRONT. WHILE NOT A MAJOR FRONT, IT WILL DROP OUR TEMPS TO
  NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S
  IN WRN NV IF CLOUDS/SHOWERS END UP BEING NUMEROUS, BUT FOR NOW
  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR 80 IN
  THOSE AREAS. ASSUMING RIDGING WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
  WEEK WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
  TEMPS. GFS SOLUTION OF NEARLY A 600 DM HIGH BY WEEKS END WOULD
  OBVIOUSLY YIELD MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...

CS

&&

.AVIATION...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL AGAIN IMPACT VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY FOR TERMINALS FROM KTVL NORTHWARD IN THE SIERRA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AND SMOKE WILL MOSTLY AFFECT KTRK
DEGRADING VISIBILITY TO MVFR. SOME SMOKE MAY FILTER INTO KTVL AND
KRNO, BUT THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE KMMH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY.
ELW


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE
     TAHOE IN NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE
     TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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