Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 262221
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO
THE EAST BY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY BUT
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LIKELY ON FRIDAY.

SLIGHT INSTABILITY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS STILL INDICATED
EAST OF THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE, AND EXTENDING INTO LYON, MINERAL
AND SOUTHEAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE LEFT IN A
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH ONLY A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR
THUNDER BETWEEN 2-8 PM. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES, SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH ALONG THE WESTERN NV SIERRA FRONT AND NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST
NV, LEADING TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES. THESE WINDS WILL
ALSO BRING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH MINIMUM VALUES IN
THE MID-UPPER TEENS. AT THIS TIME, THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MET FOR A SHORT DURATION, BUT
WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY.
FARTHER EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NV, HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE LOWER. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
INCREASING RIDGE WINDS WILL PREVENT THE TYPICAL NIGHTTIME VALLEY
INVERSIONS, KEEPING MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER.

ON SATURDAY, ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING IS EXPECTED IN AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95, WITH A MORE MODEST
COOLING UP TO 5 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
FURTHER AND PRODUCE ROUGH LAKE CONDITIONS, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH AND SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS 60-65 MPH LIKELY. THESE
WINDS MAY PRODUCE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT ESPECIALLY FROM
RENO-TAHOE NORTHWARD, THE HUMIDITY MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS NEAR
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, RESULTING IN SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.

FOR SUNDAY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REGIONWIDE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70-75 DEGREES FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH TYPICAL
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE GFS INTRODUCES INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND FORCING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF/NAM KEEP THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY
AND FORCING FARTHER EAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE
DATA, WE DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS TIME BUT ADDED SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

FOR NEXT MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS NEAR THE
WEST COAST, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TOO FAR NORTH FOR BRINGING
PRECIP TO EASTERN CA OR WESTERN NV. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING COOLER NIGHTS, WITH LOWS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEGREES IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS
OF WESTERN NV, AND NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS.
TYPICAL LATE DAY ZEPHYR BREEZES WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH ARE PROBABLE
EACH DAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HAZE FROM ROUGH FIRE LIKELY
TO REMAIN LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY AND NOT IMPACT
KMMH AIRPORT. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT, THEN INCREASING TO 25-30 KT BY FRIDAY. SOME
CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWERS/TSTMS SOUTH OF KMEV
TO KMMH THURSDAY BTWN 21-03Z, WITH LESS THAN 15% PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER AFFECTING THE KMMH AIRPORT. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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