Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 251033
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
333 AM PDT Tue Apr 25 2017
Near to slightly below normal temperatures, breezy to windy
conditions, and periods of light showers will be the main story
through Thursday. A dry cold front will bring a shot of colder air
for Friday, with breezy north winds making it feel even colder.
Drier conditions are expected heading into the weekend with a
warming trend possible.
The main adjustment to the short term forecast was to substantially
raise winds Wednesday afternoon and evening in the Surprise Valley,
northwestern Nevada, and in west-central Nevada.
Instability showers out in Pershing and Churchill Counties are
finally diminishing in coverage as an upper disturbance slides off
to the east. Elsewhere, west to northwest breezes have been slow
to diminish as colder air filters into northeast California and
western Nevada this morning behind the disturbance. For the rest
of today, the region gets into a lull in precipitation and wind
before fast zonal flow aloft resumes on Wednesday as another wave
moves into the Pacific Northwest.
Wednesday, shower chances will increase again as the aforementioned
wave moves by to the north. Forcing mainly misses to the north;
however, with residual moisture having trouble scouring out between
systems it won`t take much to bring light showers to the region.
Still, the best shot will remain north of I-80 as light warm air
advection adds to the forcing there. Snow levels are expected to
jump substantially tonight and Wednesday so travel impacts due to
snow look minimal, even at the higher elevation northern Sierra
passes, especially given the light precipitation amounts that are
Of more impact than precipitation Wednesday will be winds. The
wave going by to the north may not bring much forcing for
precipitation; however, the wave is shown in simulations to be
close enough to push another frontal boundary through northeast CA
and western NV Wednesday afternoon and evening. Model soundings
and MOS guidance pinpoint areas north and east of Reno for the
strongest winds, with the front and winds aloft encouraging good
mixing up through 700 mb or so. Winds aloft are not overly supportive
of downsloping in the lee of the Sierra and they do not increase
much through the mixed layer. Therefore, the situation is more
indicative of a gradient wind event with strong sustained winds
versus large wind variation due to gusts. With all this in mind
and consistency in MOS east of Reno (Lovelock/Fallon) for the last
couple days, confidence is high for wind advisory conditions
(sustained winds 30-40 mph, gusts 45-55 mph) Wednesday afternoon
and evening for northwestern NV and west-central NV.
Elsewhere, including the Reno-Sparks area, confidence is lower
and west-northwest flow aloft does not generally support winds as
strong as farther east...although is will certainly still be quite
breezy. One exception could be far southern Mono County where
northwest flow aloft can allow for stronger winds along Highway
395 south of Lee Vining.
On Thursday, breezy northwest winds continue although they should
be lower than on Wednesday. Snyder
.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...
Not much change to the long term period this morning as the models
are consistent through the weekend at least. Next week is a
different story. Friday will still be a chilly day with temps
running 10 degrees below average behind a backdoor cold front. North
to northeast winds will make it feel even colder with highs only
into the 40s and 50s across the area. Friday night will be cold with
NE Sierra ridge winds quite gusty at times.
Then the East Pacific ridge noses eastward for a bit into the
weekend. Temps will warm Saturday into Sunday with the northeast
winds becoming more west by Sunday. We are expecting a few degrees
of warming each day, perhaps 15 degrees overall.
Early next week, the GFS and EC are now showing another backdoor
cold front for Monday afternoon into Monday night with another
cooldown in store. Their ensembles are not as aggressive, but the
main message is consistent. The East Pacific ridge will likely
remain offshore and limit any warm periods to something typical for
spring and only lasting a couple days. This will likely be the
pattern into early May. Wallmann
Some gusty NW winds today, but not as strong as yesterday with
peak gusts at area terminals 20-25 kts. VFR conditions are also
expected tonight and into 12Z Wed.
Winds are expected to increase tonight over the ridges with mtn wave
turbulence increasing. Some isolated pockets of LLWS are possible,
especially near KTVL due to terrain channeling. Winds will increase
for all terminals Wednesday with mtn waves shallow and trapped.
Surface winds near 25 kts with gusts to 35 kts from the W-NW for all
terminals. Exception will be near Highway 95 corridor including KLOL-
KNFL-KHTH where sustained winds of 35 kts and gusts near 45 kts are
NV...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ001-004.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ005.
CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday CAZ070.
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