Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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049
FXUS65 KREV 210948
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
248 AM PDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A few light snow showers will remain possible near the Oregon
border this morning before drier air moves into the region.
Otherwise, dry and warmer conditions are expected this weekend and
next week as temperatures warm well above seasonal averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Increasing clouds can be expected this morning from highway 50
north as the nose of the northeasterly jet moves through region. A
few light snow showers will be possible near the Oregon border
around Surprise Valley before the jet stream retreats to the
north.

Temperatures will quickly begin to rebound with high temperatures
increasing 10 degrees/day through the weekend. By Sunday
temperatures will be around 8-10 degrees above normal reaching
into the mid 70s in the valleys and mid to upper 60s in the
Sierra.

Generally light west winds for most areas today, the one
exception would be from Susanville north to the Oregon border
where breezes could gust in the 15-25 mph range under the exiting
jet. An easterly gradient sets up for Sunday and increases into
Monday with breezy east winds possible near the Sierra crest.
-Zach


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

The primary changes to the extended forecast this cycle were to
increase easterly winds over the ridges Thursday night/Friday
morning and to start to increase clouds with a fast moving short
wave Wednesday night/Thursday.

The medium range models are in better alignment today with a fast
moving short wave trough that passes southeast through the eastern
half of the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Ahead of this wave
high pressure holds sway over the area with above normal
temperatures. The wave is fairly dry...but there is enough forcing
to produce clouds Thursday morning and possibly wring out a few
showers near the Oregon border and east of Highway 95. For now we
have left pops out of the forecast...but this bears watching in the
days ahead.

Behind the wave the low to mid level flow turns east-northeast
Thursday night and temperatures cool. This is typically a good setup
for increased easterly flow over the ridges...especially the
Sierra...and we have started to increase winds accordingly Thursday
night into Friday.

Temperatures begin to rebound Friday afternoon. Flow aloft becomes
northwest into the weekend as a ridge remains just offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak wave may bring lower cigs/vsbys and light snow to areas north
of a line from Susanville to Gerlach through early this morning
before moving east later today. Another area with less than VFR
conditions this morning could be the Martis Valley near KTRK where
patchy freezing fog is likely through roughly 8 am.

Elsewhere...light winds and VFR conditions will persist. Ridging
starts to build Sunday with light winds and mainly VFR conditions
through Tuesday.


&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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