Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 260935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
235 AM PDT Fri May 26 2017


High elevation Sierra snowpack melt will continue to produce minor
flooding near some creeks, streams and rivers through the Memorial
Day weekend and into most of next week. High temperatures this
afternoon will be near average, but temperatures will begin a
warming trend to well above average temperatures by early next week.
A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra in
Mono county by Sunday and Monday.



Northwest breezes and seasonable temperatures will prevail today in
the wake of a departing upper level low. High temperatures today
will stay in the mid to upper 70s across western Nevada with mid to
upper 60s for Sierra valleys. A warming trend will then begin this
weekend and persist into next week as ridging becomes established
across the region. Temperatures will warm a few degrees on Saturday
with mainly lower 80s for western Nevada and low 70s for Sierra
valleys. Temperatures will warm an additional 5-7 degrees by Sunday
afternoon with highs about 10 degrees above seasonal averages.

Overall pattern looks dry with some possible cumulus build ups
across the Sierra Saturday and Sunday. Did leave slight chance
mention for a few spotty showers and storms mainly across the Sierra
south of the Tahoe Basin. The flow turns light and even easterly so
any development should remain along the higher terrain but overall
any precipitation development looks pretty weak at this time.

.LONG week.
A few minor changes made to the long term forecast. The overall
idea remains the same for Monday-Tuesday, but by the middle of the
week, there is divergence in the guidance.

The ridge axis slides east Monday with light south flow into
Tuesday. Temperatures will remain well above average with a bit of
a zephyr both days, but stronger on Tuesday. There is a threat of
convection both days, and it looks to remain south of Tahoe so
pulled anything north of South Lake. There will likely be a push
east into Tuesday with the Pine Nuts possibly firing a storm or

Wednesday the models diverge with the 00Z GFS showing a decent
trough while the EC has more of a weaker open wave. Ensembles
overall favor the EC and will lean in it`s direction. High
confidence in a cooling trend with typical afternoon west winds.
Any threat of convection is questionable, but will leave it in for
continuity. The best threats would likely be over Mineral County
and the Lassen Convergence zone north of Susanville. A stronger
west flow for Thursday and Friday will limit any development to
flat cumulus, along with cooler temperatures. Wallmann


VFR today with light N-NW winds around 10 kts or so. These will
become more northeast on Saturday. No convection is expected, but
isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday-Tuesday mainly south of
Lake Tahoe. Wallmann


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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