Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 221545 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
845 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2017

12Z KREV sounding shows decent instability below 500 mb. With the
cold pool expected to remain in place today, added isolated
thunderstorms for the afternoon. Still, we are not expecting
the showers or thunderstorms to be as numerous as yesterday. Lake
effect showers will continue off Pyramid and Tahoe this morning,
then lessen as lake circulations get disrupted by daytime heating.
The lakes will still produce enhancement from any showers that do
move over them.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2017/


Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers remain possible
through this evening as a chilly airmass remains over the region.
Localized snow accumulations may occur in the mountains.
Widespread frosts and freezes are likely Saturday morning. A
gradual warming is expected next week as high pressure builds in,
with minimal risk of storms or strong winds.


Mainly modest adjustments were made to the existing forecast and
primarily concerned increasing precipitation chances over the
Sierra around Tahoe through northern Mono County this afternoon.
While coverage has increased with more numerous showers likely,
precipitation totals will be meager. Accumulations of snow are
only expected to be up to an inch mainly above 6500 feet. Still,
higher passes and roads south of Interstate 80 could see periods
of slick driving conditions.

Elsewhere, maintained slight chances of showers through the day
today with ample instability over the region. Some lake
enhancement off of Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake will continue into
the late morning hours. Enhanced showers around Lake Tahoe will
shift more towards the southwest portion of the Lake today. As for
locations south of Pyramid Lake, winds shift off of the major
axis of the lake likely resulting in much lower potential for

Temperatures are still expected to be quite cool for September by
Saturday morning as clouds clear and winds taper off. Confidence
in more widespread freezes has increased marginally for
Lassen/Plumas Counties and along the Sierra Front outside of urban
centers. Meanwhile, areas towards central Nevada are less certain
and may maintain a northerly wind component overnight which would
result in slightly warmer temperatures than currently forecast.
As such, the Freeze Watch remains in place this morning. Boyd

LONG TERM...Monday onward...

Northerly flow remains across much of the west between the exiting
cold trough and an amplified ridge of high pressure situated over
the eastern Pacific. Temperatures will warm the start of next week,
however, the northerly flow will limit how quickly and highs are
expected to remain below normal. By the middle into the end of next
week, the ridge expands across the west and strengthens leading to a
more significant warming trend. Highs are likely to be back in the
80s for western Nevada valleys from mid week through at least next
weekend, with 70s in Sierra valleys. Nights will be seasonably cool,
but no hard freezes are expected in agriculturally sensitive areas.
No significant winds or weather are anticipated through the period.


Rain, snow, and pellet showers are possible again today, but are
unlikely to produce the accumulation that was experienced on
Thursday. There is a 25 percent chance of a shower at KRNO, KCXP,
KNFL, and KLOL. In the Sierra, including KTRK, KTVL, and KMMH
chances are closer to 40 percent. Conditions may briefly become
MVFR-IFR in the showers with terrain becoming obscured,
especially in the Sierra. A very light dusting of snow is possible
for Sierra terminals, but will quickly melt as soon as the shower

Skies will begin to clear going into Saturday, with morning freezing
fog possible, especially in the Martis Valley (KTRK) and Sierra
Valley. -Dawn


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning

CA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning CAZ071.



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