Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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735
FXUS65 KREV 261031
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
331 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Drier air begins to intrude today, resulting in reduced coverage
of thunderstorms for much of eastern California and western
Nevada. After dry weather Thursday, isolated thunderstorms are
expected to return for the weekend. Near average high temperatures
rise to above average for Friday and the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Dragged isolated thunderstorms back towards the CA/NV border in
western NV and lowered temperatures slightly (2-4 degrees for many
areas) for this afternoon, otherwise no major changes to the short
term forecast.

Checking out the water vapor and infrared satellite imagery this
morning, the upper low that has been hanging out near Fort Bragg,
CA lately is starting to push inland. Increasing lift with the low
and a boundary that pushed out from last evening`s convection is
providing focus for altocumulus and/or ACCAS over far western NV.
As it is hard to rule out an odd shower or thunderstorm this
morning with the incoming forcing, have added a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms north of I-80 and between Susanville and
Gerlach through mid-morning.

Turning to this afternoon and evening, we have one more day of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to deal with as the upper low
moves over northern CA and northwest NV. Location-wise, while the
bulk of deep convection is likely well north of I-80 in the best
forcing region of the incoming upper low, a few storms cannot be
ruled out for the rest of northeast CA and western NV, generally
near and east of Highway 395. Any storms that for near Highway 395
should push out into the Basin and Range quickly by this evening
as the upper low advances inland.

As far as the nature of storms today, simulated soundings continue
to show moderate shear aloft with pre-convective instability
reaching 400 to as much as 900 J/kg. This could bring a few
severe thunderstorms with rotation to the region (as was seen
yesterday), with strong outflow winds, heavy rain, and hail up to
an inch in diameter.

Thursday looks dry as more stable air punches into the region
behind today`s upper low. However, already by Friday instability
begins re-building over the Sierra south of Highway 50 and over
the far western Nevada ranges as southerly flow returns with a
weak trough developing off the California coast. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible in those locations by late afternoon on
Friday. -Snyder

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...

Ridge of high pressure remains over the Four Corners through the
weekend and into next week with temperatures 5-10 degrees above
normal. High temperatures in the western Nevada valleys will reach
into the upper 90s and even some triple digits, with upper 80s and
low 90s in the Sierra over the weekend. A couple of weak waves will
move into northern CA on Saturday, potentially kicking off a few
high-based thunderstorms to the region. As the ridge continues to
amplify over the Great Basin Sunday and into next week, this will
bring up additional monsoonal moisture into the Sierra and western
NV with higher chances for thunderstorm going into next week for
the eastern Sierra and western Nevada. Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

Drier air is moving into the region today, although thunderstorms
will once again be in the forecast for western Nevada and northeast
California. The best chances will be north of KSVE/Pyramid Lake
and east of KNFL, but we still have a 20% chance of thunderstorms
today at KRNO/KCXP, as well as KLOL/KNFL. Storms are expected to
initiate along Highway 395 then spreading north and east through
the afternoon and evening.

Occasional lightning, small hail, localized heavy rainfall and gusty
outflow winds will be the main concerns. Blowing dust may also be a
concern for KLOL and KNFL this afternoon. Some smoke may also lower
visibility around KCXP from the Preacher Fire near Minden/Gardnerville.
Hoon

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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