Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 160919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
219 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017


Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will prevail this
weekend. A series of cold fronts will produce gusty winds on Monday
and Wednesday followed by below average temperatures for much of
next week and chances for isolated showers. Light snow is possible
in higher elevations, while low temperatures may dip to near
freezing in some lower valleys.



Dry conditions are expected this weekend, with areas of mid and
high level cloud cover today as a weak shortwave trough moves
across northern portions of CA and NV. Temperatures today will be
near mid-September averages in the mid 70s to near 80 in lower
elevations and upper 60s to near 70 for Sierra valleys, then edge
upward a few degrees Sunday. Winds will be generally light today,
followed by an incremental increase in speed Sunday (gusts 20-25
mph) as west flow develops over the region.

By Monday, a stronger trough is on track to reach the Pacific
Northwest coast, leading to a more significant increase in winds.
For most areas, sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 35-45
mph are expected, while Sierra ridge gusts are likely to exceed 60
mph. These wind speeds will create hazardous boating conditions
across area lakes, along with a potential threat for critical fire
weather conditions across western Nevada. Temperatures will begin
to trend cooler for areas north of I-80, while south of I-80 highs
should be similar to Sunday. Precipitation associated with this
trough is projected to remain north of CA-NV, except a few very
light showers are possible near the Oregon border late Monday
night. MJD

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

The primary changes made to the extended forecast involved reducing
pops for Tuesday and raising the temperatures. This is in response
to a change in most of the model guidance for that day. For the
remainder of the extended period few changes were made.

Much of the middle to end of next week will see a transition to
long wave troughing over the region with cooler temperatures and
at least low end chances of precipitation. The current medium
range guidance models are a bit slower bringing the main trough
into the region Tuesday and Tuesday night...and this prompted the
lowering of pops for Tuesday and the raising of temperatures.

The main trough approaches by midday Wednesday. Ahead of the trough
winds aloft begin to increase and low level thermal and pressure
gradients tighten. This should lead to increasing winds for
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Precipitation coverage should
maximize with the front late Wednesday night...but right now it may
be too early to pinpoint the areas with the highest chances and QPF

By late Thursday this long wave trough settles over the region then
a reinforcing piece of energy digs the trough further Friday.
Overall...Thursday and Friday are likely to be the coolest days with
highs in the 60s and 70s for the lower valleys and 50s and 60s for
the Sierra valleys. Snow levels drop below 7000 feet for the far
northern part of the forecast area Thursday. Lows by Friday
morning are likely to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s for the
lower valleys and the upper 20s to lower 30s for the Sierra



VFR conditions with relatively light winds are likely through the
weekend. The only clouds to contend with should be of the mid to
high level variety.

By early next week an approaching upper level trough and associated
surface cold front are likely to bring gusty winds to the region
starting Monday. Gusts Monday could reach 30-35 kts for many
areas...possibly stronger north of I-80.

Later in the week gusty winds are likely again Wednesday along with
rain showers in the valleys, and possibly some snow showers in
the highest elevations north of I-80.


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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