Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 242053
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
153 PM PDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Melting snow will continue to lead to minor flooding near creeks,
streams and rivers through the Memorial Day weekend and into most of
next week. Low pressure passing to the north is bringing gusty winds
to the region today with choppy conditions for area lakes. A few
showers and thunderstorms are also possible. The Memorial Day
weekend looks warm and dry with a few thunderstorms possible near
the Sierra Crest Friday and again Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Saturday Night...

Flows from snow melt remain elevated as water moves downstream.
Expect minor flooding to continue, however cooler temperatures the
next couple of days will help to reduce melt. For more
information, read our hydrology section below and check
weather.gov/reno for warnings and advisories.

A weak wave along the California coast continues to lift slightly
north as it moves inland. This weak feature is being absorbed by a
stronger low moving through the intermountain west, with a cold
front pushing through the region from the north. These features are
bringing gusty winds to the region today with peak gusts in the 30
to 40 mph range. This is leading to choppy conditions on area lakes
and Lake Wind Advisories remain in effect. Thunderstorms also remain
possible this afternoon and some weak cells are already evident on
radar as of 1 pm this afternoon.

Temperatures will fall behind the front for tomorrow and Friday, but
will still be near normal. Some clouds are possible tomorrow, but
soundings look too stable for showers or thunderstorms to develop.
As one final upper wave moves through the main trough on Friday, it
will increase instability and bring slight chances for thunderstorms
along the Sierra. Through the north central Nevada Basin and Range,
closer to the main wave, buildups are possible, but it appears the
better chance for any showers or thunderstorms would be in northeast
Nevada.

Upper ridge begins to build into the west Saturday, bringing the
start of a warming trend and capping convection. -Dawn

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...

The end of the Memorial Day weekend and most of next week will
feature a period of late spring heat with potential for enhanced
melting of the high elevation (8000 feet+) Sierra snowpack. This
would lead to increased flows on small creeks and streams in Mono
County and into the Walker River system.

The heat along with light winds aloft will allow for several days of
convective activity and increasing chances for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. First day of activity could be Memorial Day and
mainly along the Sierra Crest from Donner pass southward. Shower and
thunderstorm potential should continue into Tuesday/Wednesday with a
few storms possible for western Nevada.

By late in the week, models are showing a trough approaching the
west coast. This would likely increase the afternoon and evening
winds off the Sierra and decrease the potential for showers and
thunderstorms. Brong

&&

.AVIATION...

An upper trough is dropping southward toward the region today with a
weak front sagging down into northeast CA and northwest NV. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible along this front although
coverage is going to be quite low. Thunderstorms will also be
possible across Mono-Mineral Counties late in the day with about a
5% chance of lightning within 10 miles of KMMH. Between these two
areas, thunderstorms are not anticipated in a more stable
atmosphere.

Otherwise, winds will be gusty today with peak gusts at area
terminals between 25-30 kts. Sustained southwest winds of 45-50 kts
across Sierra ridges will lead to downwind mountain wave activity and
localized area of upper level turbulence. Breezy westerly winds are
once again expected on Thursday. -Dawn/Hohmann

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The Sierra snowpack will continue to melt over the next several
weeks. As we move into the peak of the melt season, impacts are
likely to become more prevalent for the eastern Sierra, the
Walker River system and upper portion of the Carson River system.

Creeks and streams are running fast and very cold, bringing the
risk of hypothermia for those without protective gear. Those with
plans to camp in the Sierra over the Memorial Day weekend should
be prepared to quickly leave creek side campsites. Hikers will
want to be cautious while trying to cross creeks and streams.
Also, be cautious if recreating near a river; some banks may have
become unstable from prolonged inundation and could suddenly
collapse. Brong/Boyd

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ004.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Washoe Lake
     in NVZ003.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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