Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 241050
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
350 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday
for northeast California and western Nevada. Stronger afternoon
and evening storms could bring heavy rain and localized flash
flooding. Drier air begins to invade Wednesday for much reduced
coverage of thunderstorms, with dry weather expected Thursday
through Saturday. Near average high temperatures will rise to
above average late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Large-scale lift out ahead of an upper low near the California
coast, and possibly a lower level boundary, are providing the
focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this morning over
western and west-central NV. Small rain cores and decent storm
motions are increasing the chance for fire starts with occasional
cloud-to-ground lightning...especially near and north of Highway
50. Farther north into northeast CA, the upper forcing is
evidenced by cooling cloud tops in the infrared satellite. A few
fast-moving and mainly dry thunderstorms could develop in the next
few hours north of I-80 in northeast CA.

For this afternoon and evening, another round of diurnal
thunderstorms is on tap as moisture continues to slowly increase
with persistent southerly flow aloft ahead of the northern CA
upper low. PWATs are already around 0.7" per an IPW sensor in
Reno, and simulations show PWATs rising up to around an inch out
in the Basin and Range today. Thunderstorms this afternoon could
be a bit stronger than Sunday with increasing shear aloft possibly
allowing for longer-lived and/or more organized thunderstorms. The
increased moisture and stronger storms will tend to allow for more
rainfall (but also more lightning!) from thunderstorms as compared
to Sunday.

Nocturnal convection looks possible again tonight as the upper low
remains stubbornly near the northern CA coast. The best shot for
elevated nocturnal convection looks mainly north of Highway 50 in
western and northwestern NV, and east of Highway 395 in extreme
northeast CA. Tuesday, afternoon convection is shown to initiate
farther east in simulations as the upper low gets a bit closer...
mainly over western and northwestern NV. I have left a 15-30%
chance in eastern CA for Tuesday afternoon but this may need to be
trimmed if simulations hold with their current thinking.

On Wednesday, coverage of convection drops off substantially as
the upper low pressure moves over far northern CA and brings a
dry slot into the region. The locations for a few leftover showers
or storms will be north of Gerlach and south and east of a
Winnemucca to Fallon to Bridgeport line. -Snyder

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

Dry southwest flow returns to the region for the last half of the
week. Temperatures will be increasing, with highs reaching into the
upper 90s once again with 80s in the Sierra by Thursday. The Four
Corners High remains in place through the weekend, which will bring
southerly flow and spread monsoonal moisture back into our area by
Sunday-Monday. We have a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
forecast for Sunday-Monday, although mainly for Mono-Mineral
Counties as the best chances remain south of highway 50. Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

Nocturnal high-based thunderstorms have developed in western Nevada
early this morning and will continue to push through the region
through the early morning. Thunderstorm chances increase this
afternoon as well, as we get daytime heating and instability. 30%
chance of thunderstorms for all terminals today with the main
threats being lightning, small hail, gusty outflow winds and
localized heavy rainfall.  Thunderstorm chances will continue for
Tuesday, but threats will transition to heavy rain and increased
potential for flash flooding. Hoon

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered high-based thunderstorms have developed over western
Nevada last night and early this morning associated with an upper
level wave moving through the area. These storms are fast-moving
with little rainfall and dry lightning strikes. New lightning fires
are likely though the morning. A least four large fires are visible
on satellite imagery this morning in western Nevada--two fires in
Pershing County and two fires in Humboldt County. It`s likely that
there are more fires out there and potential "sleepers" that may
come alive later today as we warm up.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the afternoon hours, with
increasing moisture and higher potential for wetting rains. Humidity
will also be higher today with slightly cooler temperatures as well.
Warming and drying conditions follow Wednesday through Friday with
poor humidity recoveries for the mid and upper slopes. Thunderstorm
chances look to return by Sunday. Hoon

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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