Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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141 FXUS64 KTSA 121112 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 612 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 An upper low over the four corners region was apparent via water vapor imagery this morning. This feature will gradually slide eastward into the Great Plains today... bringing increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across the CWA. With moisture advecting into the area and strengthening isentropic ascent, clouds and precip chances should generally increase from SW to NE through the afternoon. Potential exists for perhaps some small hail with the most intense elevated cores... though with generally poor instability in place, storms are expected to remain sub- severe. Afternoon highs will be cooler than yesterday given clouds & increasing precip. Overall though, temps remain near average with SE OK being the coolest in the mid 70s. Additionally, SSE winds increase during the day, gusting 15-25 mph, in response to a deepening sfc trough to our west. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Better shower/ storm chances continue across the region tonight through Monday as the upper level system gradually moves overhead with a sfc low and associated weak cold front pushing through the area. Instability will be increasing early Monday morning into the afternoon hours... particularly across SE OK & NW AR... and with sufficiently steep lapse rates & shear values, marginally severe hail or wind may be observed with the strongest storms. However, the severe threat is still expected to remain on the marginal side, especially for May standards. PWATs between 1.25 to 1.5" are advertised during the Sunday- Monday time frame, suggesting that locally heavy rainfall may become a concern, especially given how wet things have been recently. While much of the area should be clear of precip by Monday night, guidance holds on to some wrap around moisture and thus low precip chances across NW AR through Tuesday morning & afternoon. Any rainfall during this period should remain fairly light, however. Overall, expecting total QPF Sunday through Tuesday in the 0.5 to 1.5" range... with a low potential for locally higher totals up to 2". While there will be a break in precip Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, rain and storm chances return Wednesday night through Friday as multiple impulses move through our area. Locally heavy rainfall and a marginal severe threat may again evolve during this time frame, but significant impacts are not expected as of now. Ridging develops for the weekend with pleasant weather returning to the CWA. High temps will tend to hover near to slightly below seasonal averages (upper 70s to lower 80s) through the extended period, with a warm up expected by the weekend (mid-upper 80s). Low temps remain in the 50s and 60s. While winds may be periodically breezy as each weather system impacts the CWA, gusts should keep to the 15-25 mph range. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Better shower/ storm chances continue across the region tonight through Monday as the upper level system gradually moves overhead with a sfc low and associated weak cold front pushing through the area. Instability will be increasing early Monday morning into the afternoon hours... particularly across SE OK & NW AR... and with sufficiently steep lapse rates & shear values, marginally severe hail or wind may be observed with the strongest storms. However, the severe threat is still expected to remain on the marginal side, especially for May standards. PWATs between 1.25 to 1.5" are advertised during the Sunday- Monday time frame, suggesting that locally heavy rainfall may become a concern, especially given how wet things have been recently. While much of the area should be clear of precip by Monday night, guidance holds on to some wrap around moisture and thus low precip chances across NW AR through Tuesday morning & afternoon. Any rainfall during this period should remain fairly light, however. Overall, expecting total QPF Sunday through Tuesday in the 0.5 to 1.5" range... with a low potential for locally higher totals up to 2". While there will be a break in precip Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, rain and storm chances return Wednesday night through Friday as multiple impulses move through our area. Locally heavy rainfall and a marginal severe threat may again evolve during this time frame, but significant impacts are not expected as of now. Ridging develops for the weekend with pleasant weather returning to the CWA. High temps will tend to hover near to slightly below seasonal averages (upper 70s to lower 80s) through the extended period, with a warm up expected by the weekend (mid-upper 80s). Low temps remain in the 50s and 60s. While winds may be periodically breezy as each weather system impacts the CWA, gusts should keep to the 15-25 mph range. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Of immediate concern is the batch of showers and thunderstorms extending roughly as far east as Highway 81 in western Oklahoma, making eastward progress early this morning. The bulk of the guidance points toward diminishing coverage and intensity before it reaches eastern Oklahoma, which is consistent with the current lack of instability this far east. Will leave any mention of this activity out of the TAFs given the above reasoning but the chance of on-station impacts primarily at BVO/TUL/RVS is nonzero. As far as expectations beyond this morning, there remains a high likelihood of widespread MVFR/IFR conditions toward the latter half of the TAF period from an increase in low clouds and potential for shower and thunderstorm impacts. Will keep any mention of TS impacts in PROB30 groups with concerns about actual thunderstorm coverage versus simply showers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 62 77 60 / 30 80 70 20 FSM 80 63 78 62 / 30 70 80 30 MLC 76 62 78 60 / 50 50 60 10 BVO 79 58 76 56 / 30 90 80 30 FYV 78 59 75 57 / 20 80 90 40 BYV 79 59 75 59 / 30 70 90 50 MKO 78 62 76 59 / 30 70 80 20 MIO 79 60 74 58 / 30 90 90 50 F10 76 62 76 59 / 40 70 60 20 HHW 73 62 79 60 / 70 50 40 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...22