Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
084 FXUS62 KKEY 130228 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1028 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 912 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Currently - A sloppy surface high stretches from Mid-Atlantic states to north of the eastern Bahamas. This along with day time heating has resulted in a weak pressure field across the Keys area and brought about light mostly east to southeasterly breezes. Meanwhile, zonal flow is in place through the mid and upper levels while a west to east lower level ridge stretches across our broader area. This evenings sounding indicated a good amount of moisture with precipitable water around 1.7 inches and surface dew points in the mid 70s. However, a couple of important subsidence inversion and associated drier layers, the lowest of which is based around 950 mb, has squashed shower development across the broader area. There has even been a dearth of stratocumulus. Short Term Update - Winds will firm up slightly out of the east to southeast through the overnight period. This will be due the dissipating effects of day time heating over Florida and the previously mentioned surface high strengthening slightly. No change is expected in the overall synoptic makeup driving our weather. Stable conditions, thanks to the inversions, should prevail despite some suggestion by guidance that lower level lift and boundary layer moisture may increase slightly. The warm season is definitely here with overnight lows to be near 80 despite the lackluster flow. Dew points will remain in the mid 70s, for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 912 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 A weak ridge stretching southeastward from the eastern United States, along with dissipating day time heating, will result in winds becoming more uniformly east to southeast and strengthening slightly. With that said, winds will remain light to gentle and virtually no changes made in the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 912 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through the overnight period. Surface winds will be light and broadly easterly to start, but strengthen slightly out of the east to southeast through the night. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest