Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 250447
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1047 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Winds were veering in advance of a cold front late this evening,
with FROPA at the terminals in the next 1-3 hours. Breezy
northerly winds will follow through early Saturday morning, and
with strong winds just off the deck, periods of LLWS will be
possible. The winds will gradually decrease through Saturday
afternoon as they continue to veer. VFR will prevail through the
cycle with only some occasional bouts of high cirrus clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Following a minor trough in NW flow tonight and an accompanying
cold front, heights will amplify and trend more anticyclonic ahead
of progressive ridging for the weekend. This should finally bring
an end to the lee cirrus that has smeared our skies on and off
for most of the Holiday week. Despite rising mid-level heights
through Sunday, low level thicknesses behind tonight`s cold front
will struggle to return to today`s unseasonable values until
Monday at the earliest. It`s at this point that deep and dry
southwest flow will unfold following the upper ridge. This pattern
is more fitting of a regional wildfire pattern, however models
depict the thermal ridge holding just west and northwest of our
region for most/all of the day which would serve to temper fire
concerns here. Still, breezy gradient winds and unseasonable
warmth will probably be enough for at least a low-end wildfire
threat mainly on the Caprock where the lowest dewpoints are
expected.

For Tuesday, models and GEFS members are slowly converging on a
compact low zipping east across the Four Corners, before passing
to our north Tuesday night. The greatest forecast challenge
concerns a northern stream trough and its effect on a cold front
in our area. The GFS remains much stronger with the northern
trough and consequently faster than the ECMWF with a cold front on
Tuesday. At this time, we`re siding towards an earlier FROPA than
the ECMWF and CMC which results in a decent spread of high temps
from north to south for Tuesday. By Wed night or early Thursday,
another cold front with even more vigor looks to sweep south ahead
of a broad, positively tilted trough. Although such troughs can
pinch off energy in their base and loiter in the Desert SW, we are
dismissing the GFS` depiction of this in favor of the more steady
and progressive trough per the ECMWF.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/23


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